Poverty in Nigeria climbed to 63 per cent in 2025 despite a significant slowdown in inflation, according to the latest report by the World Bank, underscoring the limited impact of macroeconomic improvements on household welfare.
The findings were contained in the April 2026 edition of the Nigeria Development Update titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development,” released in Abuja.
140 Million Nigerians Now Living in Poverty
The report revealed a steady rise in poverty levels over the past three years.
- 56% in 2023
- 61% in 2024
- 63% in 2025
This translates to approximately 140 million Nigerians currently living below the poverty line.
The increase, according to the report, reflects a widening gap between economic indicators and real living conditions.
Inflation Drops, But Impact Lingers
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that headline inflation declined sharply from 34.80 per cent in December 2024 to 15.15 per cent in December 2025.
Food inflation also dropped from 39.84 per cent to 10.84 per cent within the same period.
However, the World Bank noted that inflation remained high enough to erode purchasing power.
“Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report stated.
Structural Challenges Persist
Beyond inflation, the report identified structural issues slowing poverty reduction, particularly weak performance in agriculture.
While sectors such as services and industry recorded growth, agriculture—where a majority of low-income Nigerians are employed—lagged behind.
This imbalance has limited income growth among vulnerable populations, weakening the overall impact of economic expansion.
Global Pressures Add to Burden
The report also cited global shocks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as contributing factors.
These developments have driven up energy, food, and transportation costs, further worsening conditions for low-income households.
Slow Decline Expected from 2026
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected a gradual reduction in poverty beginning in 2026, driven by easing inflation and improved macroeconomic stability.
Poverty levels are expected to decline to about 59 per cent by 2028.
However, the pace of improvement is likely to remain slow due to:
- Weak job creation
- Low agricultural productivity
- Persistent inequality
Experts Call for Inclusive Growth
Speaking at the report’s launch, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, Fiseha Haile, stressed that economic growth must be inclusive to effectively reduce poverty.
He noted that while inflation has moderated, it still poses a risk to real income growth and overall welfare.
Haile emphasised that sustainable poverty reduction would depend on the ability of the economy to generate jobs and improve incomes for the most vulnerable groups.
Human Capital Concerns
The report also linked rising poverty to broader human capital challenges, including poor nutrition, limited access to healthcare, and weak early childhood development outcomes among low-income households.
These factors, it warned, could reinforce long-term inequality if not addressed.
