Nigeria currently requires about 800,000 new homes annually to keep pace with rapid population growth, with demand projected to rise sharply and potentially triple by 2030, according to fresh housing market research.
Reports released by PAC Research revealed that Nigeria’s housing deficit has now exceeded 28 million units, with Lagos State accounting for an estimated 3.4 million-unit shortfall.
The reports, titled “From Shortage to Opportunity: Unlocking the Billion-Dollar Housing Market” and “Lagos Housing Report: A Treasure Trove of Possibilities,” provide one of the most extensive assessments of Nigeria’s housing sector and emerging investment opportunities.
Despite the widening housing gap, researchers argued that the situation presents significant economic opportunities for investors, developers and policymakers, with the housing market valued at potentially trillions of naira.
The national report, which featured a foreword by the Managing Director of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), Shehu Usman Osidi, noted that Nigeria currently requires around 800,000 housing units yearly to match population expansion and urbanisation trends.
It projected that housing demand could increase to approximately two million homes annually before the end of the decade.
The report also highlighted Nigeria’s weak mortgage sector, noting that mortgage penetration remains below one per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to 77 per cent in the United States and 31 per cent in South Africa.
“Nigeria stands at a critical juncture where rapid urbanisation and economic transformation converge to create unprecedented opportunities,” the report stated.
Researchers identified several innovative financing models capable of narrowing the housing gap, including Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), diaspora-backed mortgage products and the Federal Government’s Renewed Hope Housing Scheme.
A significant section of the study focused on Lagos, Nigeria’s economic centre, which reportedly attracts more than 475,000 new residents annually.
According to the findings, Lagos currently has an estimated housing stock of 1.49 million units against demand estimated at 4.69 million units, creating an accessible market gap of approximately 2.81 million units.
The report also observed changing housing preferences among residents, with more than 52 per cent reportedly favouring one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments due to affordability concerns and lifestyle trends.
Researchers noted that demand for compact housing units continues to rise across major urban areas.
The study further identified strong rental returns in prime locations including Lekki and Victoria Island, noting that three-bedroom apartments in Victoria Island can attract annual rents of up to ₦18 million.
To address the housing shortage, PAC Research recommended broader adoption of incremental housing models, expansion of housing finance access, and stronger public-private partnerships to accelerate delivery.
Describing the report as a timely intervention, Osidi said it should serve as a wake-up call for stakeholders.
“This report is more than an analysis — it is a call to action. The time to invest in Nigeria’s housing market is now. The rewards extend beyond financial returns to include inclusive growth and urban resilience,” he said.
Also speaking, the Oniru of Iruland and former Lagos State Commissioner for Housing, Oba Abdulwasiu Lawal, described the Lagos-focused report as an important guide for real estate investors and stakeholders.
He noted that emerging corridors such as Lekki, Ajah and Epe are increasingly becoming strategic destinations for future housing investments.
