The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has approved an increase of 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in oil production for August 2026 as part of its gradual strategy to restore previously withheld output and maintain stability in the global energy market.

The decision was reached during the alliance’s ministerial meeting, where member countries reviewed current oil market conditions, global demand trends, and supply dynamics. The production adjustment reflects OPEC+’s confidence in market fundamentals despite ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical developments affecting the energy sector.

Industry analysts believe the additional output could help ease supply concerns in international markets while supporting price stability. However, they note that global crude oil prices will continue to depend on factors such as economic growth, geopolitical tensions, refinery demand, and inventory levels across major consuming nations.

For Nigeria, the increased production target presents an opportunity to strengthen crude oil exports and improve foreign exchange earnings, provided domestic production remains stable and operational challenges are effectively managed. Energy experts have consistently urged investment in oil infrastructure, improved security, and enhanced production efficiency to enable the country to maximise its OPEC allocation.

The latest production adjustment comes as several producing countries continue efforts to balance supply with global demand while preventing excessive market volatility. OPEC+ has maintained that future production decisions will remain data-driven and subject to prevailing market conditions.

Market observers say the decision underscores the alliance’s commitment to ensuring a balanced oil market while supporting long-term energy security and sustainable investment across the global petroleum industry.

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The has reduced its ex-gantry price of petrol to ₦1,075 per litre, following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices triggered by developments in the Middle East conflict.

The latest price represents a ₦100 reduction from the previous ₦1,175 per litre, offering potential relief to fuel marketers and consumers if the adjustment reflects at retail stations.

Crude oil price drops amid geopolitical tensions

Global oil prices declined after , President of the , suggested that the ongoing conflict involving and could end soon.

The war, which disrupted oil installations and heightened tensions around the , had earlier pushed crude prices to about $110 per barrel, the highest level since 2022.

However, global benchmark prices later dropped by more than 10 percent, with Brent crude falling to around $88 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate traded near $86.77 per barrel.

Petrol supplied through coastal distribution cheaper

According to the refinery’s new pricing template, petrol supplied through coastal distribution channels will now sell at about ₦1,050 per litre, slightly lower than the gantry price.

The refinery also revised the price of diesel downward to ₦1,430 per litre, representing a ₦190 reduction from the previous price of ₦1,620 per litre.

The prices, however, exclude statutory charges imposed by the (NMDPRA).

Marketers yet to adjust pump prices

Despite the reduction announced by the refinery, many filling stations across and continued selling petrol at higher prices.

Checks showed that some stations still dispensed petrol between ₦1,285 and ₦1,330 per litre, reflecting earlier increases implemented during the crude oil price surge.

Major retail outlets operated by the and other independent marketers have yet to adjust their pump prices.

Experts predict price adjustment soon

Industry stakeholders believe depots and filling stations may begin reducing pump prices once existing fuel stocks purchased at higher costs are exhausted.

According to , Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, the domestic fuel market will continue to react to fluctuations in global oil prices.

Similarly, the National President of the (PETROAN), , commended the refinery’s decision and said marketers would likely follow with adjustments.

Transport fares and living costs affected

The earlier spike in petrol prices had already triggered increases in transport fares in several parts of Lagos and Abuja.

Commuters reported that some routes experienced fare hikes of up to 30 percent, while others have slightly reduced following the drop in crude oil prices.

Calls for stronger domestic refining capacity

Meanwhile, the Executive Director of the , , stressed the importance of strengthening Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity.

He noted that encouraging local refining investments would help shield the country from global oil market volatility and improve energy security.

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