Petrol prices may soon decline to around N1,200 per litre as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot operators continue to reduce ex-depot rates following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices.

The development comes after the Dangote Refinery announced a N75 reduction in its petrol gantry price, lowering the rate from N1,250 per litre to N1,175 per litre.

According to industry data, the adjustment has prompted other depot owners to cut their prices to about N1,180 per litre, signaling a potential reduction in retail pump prices across the country.

In a circular issued to marketers, the refinery attributed the price cut to easing tensions in the Middle East, which had previously pushed energy prices higher.

“Following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has impacted energy prices, we wish to inform you that we have reviewed our premium motor spirit gantry/coastal price,” the refinery stated.

The company also reduced its coastal price per metric tonne from N1,595,790 to N1,495,215, with the new rates taking effect from June 16, 2026.

Despite the reduction at the depot level, many filling stations are still selling petrol at around N1,280 per litre, as marketers seek to clear existing stocks purchased at higher prices.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said consumers should expect pump prices to begin adjusting within days as new supplies enter the market.

According to him, petrol could sell for between N1,200 and N1,250 per litre in Lagos, while prices in other parts of the country may remain slightly higher due to transportation and logistics costs.

“This announcement is enabling people who have old stocks to clear out their stocks and prepare to take fresh supplies. By tomorrow and Friday, people will start adjusting to the new price,” he said.

Ukadike explained that marketers cannot immediately reduce prices without incurring losses on existing inventory purchased before the latest adjustment.

The latest reduction follows a significant decline in international crude oil prices after reports of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude reportedly fell from about $87 per barrel to below $80 per barrel after the agreement, easing pressure on fuel markets worldwide.

During the three-month geopolitical crisis, crude prices surged above $100 per barrel and, at some points, exceeded $120 per barrel, contributing to higher fuel prices in Nigeria.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), however, raised concerns that imported petroleum products appear cheaper than some locally refined products and called for increased competition in the downstream sector.

Meanwhile, industry observers believe further reductions may occur if crude oil prices continue their downward trend.

Some analysts have projected that petrol prices could fall below N1,000 per litre in the coming weeks if the ceasefire agreement remains effective and global oil markets remain stable.

A refinery official, however, noted that further reductions may take time because refiners are still processing crude oil purchased at previously higher prices.

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has reduced its gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) to N1,200 per litre, while fixing its coastal price at N1,153 per litre, a move expected to influence fuel pricing across Nigeria’s downstream sector.

The adjustment was confirmed by the Group’s spokesperson, Anthony Chiejina, who said the review reflects changes in the refinery’s pricing framework amid ongoing volatility in the global oil market.

According to him, tensions in the Middle East continue to impact crude oil prices globally, prompting the refinery to revise its rates downward to align with prevailing market conditions. He noted that the new pricing structure is expected to affect supply costs across distribution channels, including depots and retail outlets.

With the revised gantry price of N1,200 per litre, fuel marketers are likely to adjust their cost calculations, particularly those sourcing products locally rather than relying on imports. The coastal price of N1,153 per litre is also expected to support marine deliveries to depots in Nigeria’s southern regions, offering distributors an alternative supply route.

The price cut comes after a period of consistent increases in petrol prices, which followed geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran tensions 2026 that escalated in late February. Petrol prices had climbed from about N840 per litre before the crisis to around N1,300 in recent days. The latest reduction from N1,275 to N1,200 may lead to a slight drop in pump prices, potentially easing pressure on consumers.

However, the refinery continues to face operational challenges tied to crude oil supply. Its supply arrangement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reportedly encountered setbacks, with a significant shortfall in crude deliveries.

Findings indicate that between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the refinery recorded a deficit of about 79.53 million barrels of crude. The facility requires roughly 19.77 million barrels monthly to operate at full capacity but has received considerably less within the period.

Available data shows the refinery got 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February. In March, only 3.6 million barrels were supplied between the 1st and 15th.

A senior official at the refinery argued that the situation contradicts provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises domestic crude supply before exports. Despite this, the country has continued crude exports while the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery struggles with insufficient feedstock.

Also speaking on the issue, the refinery’s Managing Director, David Bird, disclosed that the plant currently receives only five cargoes of crude, far below the 13 cargoes agreed under the naira-for-crude deal.

The combined impact of pricing adjustments and supply constraints continues to shape Nigeria’s fuel market, with stakeholders closely watching how these dynamics will affect pump prices and overall energy costs in the coming weeks.

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the introduction of a 15 per cent ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel, a policy aimed at protecting Nigeria’s emerging local refineries and stabilising the downstream petroleum market.

The directive, contained in a letter dated October 21, 2025, and made public on October 30, was addressed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). It ordered the immediate implementation of the new tariff as part of a “market-responsive import tariff framework.”

The letter, signed by the President’s Private Secretary, Damilotun Aderemi, conveyed Tinubu’s approval following a proposal by FIRS Executive Chairman, Zacch Adedeji, who argued that the measure would align import costs with domestic production realities.

According to Adedeji, the new tariff forms part of ongoing fiscal and energy reforms designed to boost local refining capacity, stabilise prices, and strengthen Nigeria’s naira-based oil economy, in line with the administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda for energy security and economic sustainability.

“The core objective of this initiative is to operationalise crude transactions in local currency, strengthen local refining capacity, and ensure a stable, affordable supply of petroleum products across Nigeria,” Adedeji stated.

The FIRS chairman further warned that price instability in the downstream market was being fuelled by the misalignment between local refining costs and import parity pricing, which often undercuts domestic producers.

“While domestic refining of petrol has begun to increase and diesel sufficiency has been achieved, price instability persists, partly due to this misalignment,” he wrote.

Adedeji explained that the 15 per cent duty on the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) value of imported fuels would discourage duty-free imports from undercutting domestic producers, while ensuring fair competition and cost recovery for refiners.

Projections contained in the presidential letter indicate that the new tariff could raise the landing cost of petrol by an estimated ₦99.72 per litre, bringing average Lagos pump prices to about ₦964.72 ($0.62)—still below regional averages such as Senegal ($1.76), Côte d’Ivoire ($1.52), and Ghana ($1.37) per litre.

The move comes as Nigeria intensifies efforts to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and expand domestic refining capacity.

The 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery has already commenced diesel and aviation fuel production, while modular refineries in Edo, Rivers, and Imo States have begun small-scale petrol refining.

Despite these advances, imported petrol still accounts for about 67 per cent of national demand, underscoring the government’s push to balance protection for local producers with affordability for consumers.

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