The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that poverty in Nigeria has risen to 63 per cent of the population despite improvements in macroeconomic stability driven by ongoing economic reforms.

The disclosure was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation Report, which acknowledged progress made under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu while highlighting persistent challenges facing millions of Nigerians.

According to the report, an estimated 27 million Nigerians experienced food insecurity in the latter part of 2025, underscoring the social impact of rising living costs and economic adjustments.

The IMF noted that reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange market liberalisation, fiscal discipline measures and the end of deficit monetisation have strengthened Nigeria’s macroeconomic position and improved investor confidence.

The report showed that Nigeria’s gross international reserves increased to $46 billion in 2025 from $40 billion recorded at the end of 2024, while net reserves rose significantly from $23 billion to $35 billion within the same period.

The Fund also observed that the foreign exchange market has become more stable, with the parallel market premium remaining below five per cent, while sovereign bond spreads have remained broadly stable despite global economic uncertainties.

The IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.0 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, citing improvements in the banking sector, ongoing bank recapitalisation efforts and the country’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.

Despite these gains, the Fund warned that inflationary pressures remain a concern. Inflation, which had declined for over a year, rose to 15.4 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, driven largely by increases in global fuel, food and fertiliser prices.

The report also revealed that Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit widened to 4.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 as oil revenues fell below government projections.

“Higher global prices of fuel, food and fertilisers continue to exert pressure on households and could worsen poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF stated.

The Fund identified volatility in global commodity markets and domestic security challenges as major risks to Nigeria’s economic outlook.

Executive Directors of the IMF commended Nigerian authorities for maintaining macroeconomic stability but urged the government to expand social protection programmes and strengthen support for vulnerable households.

The IMF also recommended a neutral fiscal stance in 2026, improved fiscal transparency, expanded cash transfer programmes and continued reforms in public financial management.

Additionally, the Fund advised the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until inflation is brought under control and to continue efforts toward an inflation-targeting framework.

Responding to the report, the Federal Government welcomed the IMF assessment, describing it as independent validation of its reform agenda and economic management strategy.

The government highlighted a nearly 10 per cent growth in per capita income in 2025 and pointed to ongoing interventions such as cash transfer programmes, student loans, consumer credit initiatives, healthcare investments and agricultural development schemes.

Special Adviser to the President on Revenue, Taiwo Oyedele, said the administration was implementing measures to strengthen fiscal reporting, improve budget transparency and enhance public financial management systems.

The Federal Government also expressed optimism that improved crude oil production, domestic refining capacity and expanded gas exports would boost revenue generation and strengthen foreign exchange earnings.

While acknowledging the progress recorded in macroeconomic indicators, analysts said the report highlights a major policy challenge for the government: ensuring that economic reforms translate into tangible improvements in living standards and reduced poverty for millions of Nigerians.

The IMF maintained that sustained reforms, stronger social protection measures and inclusive growth policies would be essential to ensuring that economic gains are widely shared across the population.

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Speaking at the official launch of the Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme on Monday in Abuja, Tinubu declared his administration’s commitment to transforming agriculture into a more attractive and lucrative venture for young Nigerians.

“We are not just talking—we’re delivering,” Tinubu said. “This programme is about making farming easier, creating sustainable jobs, and making it ‘sexier’ for our youths.”

The initiative includes over 2,000 advanced tractors, 50 bulldozers, 12 mobile workshops, and 9,000 assorted farming implements. According to the president, these tools will help drive a new wave of productivity, food security, and youth empowerment.

The government is also partnering with countries like Belarus to provide training in modern farming techniques, machinery maintenance, and equipment fabrication—equipping young Nigerians with valuable skills for long-term financial independence.

Tinubu warned that the programme would be closely monitored. “We will supervise and hold you accountable. These machines are for productivity, not for decoration,” he said.

He commended the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security for its efforts in combating food insecurity and stabilising the supply chain, describing the launch as a turning point in Nigeria’s agricultural history.

“Let history record today as the beginning of Nigeria’s farming rebirth,” the president concluded.

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The farm produce price index, which stood at 110.5 in January, spiked to 142.53 by May, with the most significant jump—22.28%—recorded between April and May. This rapid escalation signals intensifying inflationary pressure, largely linked to worsening insecurity disrupting agricultural production, particularly in Nigeria’s food-producing regions.

The NBS noted that insecurity in states such as Benue, a key player in the nation’s food supply chain, continues to hinder farming activities. Despite a brief improvement in Benue’s food inflation figures—from 51.8% year-on-year in April to 22.0% in May—local prices remain volatile. The state still recorded a 4.1% monthly increase in food costs in May, alongside a 3.1% rise in general consumer prices.

Nationally, the gradual climb in farm produce prices was initially moderate:

January to February: up 1.77%

February to March: up 2.65%

March to April: up 0.88%

April to May: up 22.28%

This trend underscores the fragile state of domestic food supply, worsened by frequent attacks on farmers, displacement, and abandoned farmlands.

In contrast, imported food prices showed more stability. The Imported Food Price Index rose modestly from 111.5 in January to a peak of 115.3 in April before dropping slightly to 113.7 in May. Nigerians imported ₦1.67 trillion worth of food and beverages between January and March 2025—5% higher than the ₦1.59 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024.

While imported food prices remain relatively steady, the NBS data suggests Nigeria’s dependence on external supply chains may be cushioning domestic shortfalls—but not without cost implications.

Analysts warn that unless urgent action is taken to restore security in agricultural regions and strengthen domestic food production, food inflation could worsen, deepening hunger and economic hardship across the country.

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According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the headline inflation rate cooled to 23.71% year-on-year—a marginal dip from 24.23% in March 2025 and a significant fall from the 33.69% recorded in April 2024. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 1.86%, a sharp deceleration from the previous month’s 3.90%, indicating a slight relief in the pace of price increases.

However, the national average conceals acute disparities across the country. Several states reported inflation rates far exceeding the average, with Enugu State topping the list at a staggering 36.0% year-on-year. Others crossing the 30% threshold included Kebbi, Niger, Benue, Ekiti, Nasarawa, Zamfara, Delta, Gombe, Sokoto, and Abuja.

The uneven distribution of inflation suggests localized pressures, especially in urban centres. Urban inflation held at 24.29%, reflecting persistent cost-of-living challenges for city dwellers, while rural inflation came in slightly lower at 22.83%.

Among the states with the most alarming figures:

Enugu experienced a 12.3% rise in its general price level within a month, accompanied by a 24.4% food inflation rate.

Kebbi reported all-items inflation of 35.1%, with food prices soaring by 33.8% year-on-year.

Niger State witnessed a notable 14.7% month-on-month increase, the highest jump nationally, pushing its overall inflation to 34.8%.

Benue, grappling with insecurity and supply chain issues, saw food prices balloon by 51.8% year-on-year, one of the most extreme spikes in the country.

Ekiti and Nasarawa also saw monthly price increases surpassing 10%, contributing to respective annual inflation rates of 34.0% and 33.3%.

Even Abuja, the seat of government, reported 32.9% inflation—an indicator of how widespread the economic challenges have become. While food inflation in the capital showed a slight monthly decline of 0.7%, the overall price burden remains heavy.

Some states, such as Delta and Gombe, experienced high inflation driven more by non-food sectors. Rising costs in housing, utilities, and transportation have become major contributors in these regions.

Nationally, food inflation eased to 21.26% in April 2025—significantly down from 40.53% a year earlier. This improvement is partly attributed to adjustments in the statistical base year and the reduced prices of staples like rice, maize flour, and beans. However, food price increases still weigh heavily on households in many states.

The average 12-month food inflation now stands at 31.43%, a slight drop from the 32.74% recorded previously. Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes volatile categories like food and energy—also moderated, falling to 23.39% year-on-year and 1.34% month-on-month.

Despite these positive trends at the national level, inflationary pressure remains uneven, especially in areas affected by insecurity, poor infrastructure, or disrupted supply chains. Experts warn that unless structural issues are addressed, vulnerable populations in high-inflation states will continue to face rising poverty and reduced purchasing power.

The report underscores a critical point: while national indicators may point to easing inflation, for many Nigerians, the cost of living crisis remains very real—and deeply regional.

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The announcement, made during President Joe Biden’s visit to Angola, allocates nearly $823 million through USAID, with over $202 million sourced from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Commodity Credit Corporation. An additional $186 million will come via the U.S. Department of State.

At the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit in 2022, President Biden reaffirmed America’s commitment to tackling Africa’s food crisis. The continent remains the region with the highest proportion of its population facing hunger. According to the UN, nearly 300 million Africans, or one in five, experienced hunger in 2023, with the situation worsening due to armed conflict, extreme weather, natural disasters, and other emergencies.

This new funding will enhance life-saving support for affected communities, addressing malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and other urgent needs. Humanitarian partners will provide emergency health care, clean water, sanitation services, and protection programs for vulnerable groups, including refugees and internally displaced persons.

A significant portion of the funds, sourced from the Commodity Credit Corporation, will be used to purchase and distribute agricultural commodities from American farmers to deliver food assistance in East and Central Africa. Additionally, the aid will address essential needs such as education, mental health support, and shelter.

The U.S. has long been a major supporter of humanitarian efforts in Africa, with nearly $6.6 billion allocated for sub-Saharan Africa in Fiscal Year 2024 alone. While the commitment remains steadfast, U.S. officials continue to urge the global donor community to contribute more to meet the escalating needs.

This latest announcement underscores the U.S.’s dedication to supporting African nations and communities in overcoming the severe challenges posed by food insecurity and humanitarian crises.

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