Independent fuel marketers have threatened a nationwide strike and closure of filling stations if the Federal Government attempts to implement petrol price control in Nigeria. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) issued this warning following remarks from the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, who stated that deregulation does not allow marketers to exploit consumers through unfair pricing or excessive profiteering.

The dispute stems from public dissatisfaction over high domestic fuel costs despite a significant drop in global crude oil prices. Government regulatory bodies, including the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), expressed worries that local retail rates have failed to mirror international market declines. While the government maintains it has a legal duty under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to protect citizens from exploitation, marketers argue that enforcing any petrol price control in Nigeria contradicts the principles of a deregulated economy.

According to IPMAN, marketers are currently incurring heavy financial losses due to rapid price adjustments by local refineries and a lack of robust market competition. They noted that many businesses operate on fixed-interest bank loans, making forced price reductions unsustainable without addressing underlying supply-side challenges. Stakeholders, including the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), have urged the minister to convene an urgent meeting to resolve the pricing standoff through dialogue rather than unilateral regulatory enforcement.

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Nigeria’s potential gains from rising global oil prices are under increasing threat as inflationary pressures continue to mount, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has warned.

The warning comes amid heightened global energy market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions, which have pushed crude oil prices upward, positioning Nigeria for a possible revenue windfall. However, authorities say the same developments are simultaneously driving up domestic costs, undermining the expected economic benefits.

Speaking on the development, Edun noted that while higher oil prices could boost government revenues and strengthen foreign exchange inflows, the accompanying rise in fuel, transportation and food costs poses a significant risk to economic stability and household welfare.

Recent assessments by the government show that global shocks linked to the Middle East crisis are already transmitting into Nigeria’s economy through increased energy prices, exchange rate pressures and rising logistics costs. 

Analysts warn that the inflation surge could erode purchasing power and offset the fiscal gains expected from higher crude prices, reinforcing Nigeria’s long-standing paradox as an oil-producing nation that struggles to translate oil windfalls into broad-based economic relief.

Further compounding the challenge is the lingering impact of recent economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and currency adjustments, which have already elevated the cost of living for many Nigerians.

Economic experts note that although the country stands to benefit from improved oil revenues, the broader macroeconomic outlook remains fragile, with inflation threatening income levels and slowing poverty reduction efforts. 

The Federal Government has therefore intensified monitoring of global oil market developments, capital flows and fiscal risks, with a view to adjusting policy responses to cushion the impact on citizens and businesses.

Edun emphasised the need for prudent management of any oil windfall, stressing that without effective policy coordination, temporary gains could be quickly eroded by rising inflation and structural inefficiencies within the economy.

The development underscores a recurring challenge for Africa’s largest oil producer, where external price shocks often deliver mixed outcomes — boosting revenues on one hand while deepening inflationary pressures on the other.

As global uncertainties persist, economists say Nigeria’s ability to balance fiscal gains with price stability will be critical in determining whether the current oil price rally translates into sustainable economic progress.

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Nigeria’s average daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, declined to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, according to the latest data released by the (NMDPRA).

The figure represents a drop from 60.2 million litres per day recorded in January, indicating a noticeable shift in the country’s fuel consumption pattern amid ongoing adjustments in the downstream petroleum sector.

Domestic refining begins to influence supply

In its monthly factsheet, the NMDPRA noted that the drop in consumption coincided with a significant change in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, largely influenced by the growing role of the .

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol due to the poor performance of state-owned refineries. Historically, local refining accounted for less than 20 percent of national petrol supply, leaving the country largely dependent on imports to meet domestic demand.

However, the regulatory authority said the increasing output from the Dangote Refinery is gradually altering this structure by strengthening domestic fuel supply and reducing reliance on imported products.

Petrol imports decline sharply

According to the NMDPRA report, petrol imports dropped significantly in February as domestic refining expanded.

The agency revealed that imports declined by about 25.4 million litres per day, reflecting a growing shift toward locally refined petroleum products.

Industry analysts say the development could signal the beginning of a long-term transition in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, as large-scale refining capacity continues to increase within the country.

Nigeria maintains strong fuel stock

Despite the reduction in petrol consumption, the regulatory authority noted that Nigeria maintained a petrol sufficiency stock of about 31 days in February 2026.

This level of stock coverage suggests improved energy security for the country, especially at a time when global fuel markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices.

Experts believe that stronger domestic refining capacity could help Nigeria better withstand international supply disruptions and reduce the economic risks associated with heavy fuel imports.

Experts highlight Dangote Refinery’s growing impact

Reacting to the development, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olajide, said the integration of Dangote Refinery’s output into national supply calculations demonstrates the refinery’s growing strategic importance.

According to him, the refinery is increasingly serving as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly as the country navigates unpredictable global energy markets.

He explained that the emergence of large-scale domestic refining capacity is gradually reshaping the structure of Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.

“The addition of Dangote’s inventory to national supply figures highlights the refinery’s role as a strategic buffer for the downstream sector,” Olajide said.

He added that expanding domestic refining would not only reduce import dependence but also strengthen the country’s ability to maintain stable petrol availability.

Dangote refinery cuts petrol and diesel prices

Meanwhile, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently announced a reduction in the prices of petrol and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel.

Under the revised pricing structure, the refinery reduced the gantry price of petrol from ₦1,175 per litre to ₦1,075 per litre, representing a ₦100 decrease.

The coastal distribution price of petrol was also lowered from ₦1,150 to ₦1,028 per litre, while diesel prices dropped from ₦1,620 to ₦1,430 per litre, marking a reduction of ₦190 per litre.

The refinery said the price adjustment was part of efforts to ease the financial burden on consumers and contribute to broader economic stability in Nigeria.

Pricing reflects global crude oil benchmarks

According to the company, crude oil processed at the refinery is purchased at international benchmark prices plus a premium ranging from $3 to $6 per barrel.

Payments for crude oil and other inputs are also made at prevailing foreign exchange market rates without subsidies.

The refinery added that crude supplied under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement is similarly priced using global benchmarks before being converted to naira based on the current exchange rate.

Dangote Refinery further stated that in 2025 alone it reduced petrol prices at least eight times, increasing prices only twice during the year.

The company described the pricing strategy as part of its commitment to ensuring that cost advantages from local refining are passed on to consumers across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Industry observers believe that as domestic refining capacity continues to expand, Nigeria could experience improved fuel price stability and reduced vulnerability to international supply disruptions.

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