Global crude oil prices have dropped by nearly two per cent as the Iran–United States–Israel conflict enters its third month, raising renewed expectations of a possible reduction in petroleum product prices in Nigeria.

Checks on Friday showed that Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded fluctuations during trading, with prices briefly surging earlier in the week before easing later in the day.

Brent crude stood at $87.30 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $91.96 per barrel, reflecting a 1.80 per cent and 1.87 per cent movement respectively.

The decline follows a short-lived spike recorded between Wednesday and Thursday amid ongoing tensions in the Gulf region.

The development has strengthened expectations that fuel prices may ease in Nigeria, where pump prices have surged significantly in recent months due to global supply disruptions.

The crisis in the Middle East escalated after the United States imposed fresh sanctions on Iran linked to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route.

Since February 28, 2026, the conflict has disrupted global energy markets, with ripple effects across several economies, including Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

In Nigeria, petrol prices have risen sharply to between ₦1,345 and ₦1,365 per litre, up from about ₦900 per litre earlier in the year.

However, local refining capacity, particularly from Dangote Refinery, has helped stabilize supply and support product availability across the country and parts of Africa.

Reports also indicate that Dangote Refinery recently reduced its automotive gas price to about ₦1,600 per litre from roughly ₦1,800, reflecting adjustments in response to global market movements.

Market analysts say sustained declines in crude prices could eventually ease domestic fuel pricing pressure, although exchange rate instability and logistics costs remain key determining factors.

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Fuel prices may decline in the coming days as global crude oil prices continue to fall following ongoing peace talks between the United States and Iran, raising optimism in global energy markets.

Oil prices dropped from about $111 last week to $97 per barrel on Monday morning, signalling a sharp reversal after months of volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Oil Price Decline Follows Diplomatic Progress

Brent crude had previously hovered between $103 and $105 per barrel, supported by fears surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran.

However, renewed diplomatic engagement and reports of progress in peace talks have triggered a significant market correction, with prices sliding to $97.48 per barrel.

Analysts say the decline reflects expectations that the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, may soon reopen under a potential US–Iran agreement.

Impact of Middle East Conflict on Oil Prices

Crude oil prices had surged above $100 per barrel after tensions escalated between the United States and Iran in late February.

At the peak of the crisis, prices crossed $115 per barrel, causing ripple effects across global fuel markets.

In Nigeria, petrol prices rose from around N830 per litre to about N1,300, while diesel and aviation fuel also recorded sharp increases, putting pressure on households, transport operators, and airline companies.

Nigeria Watches as Global Prices Decline

With crude prices now trending downward, market observers say there is growing speculation that fuel prices in Nigeria could ease if the decline continues.

There are also expectations that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other downstream operators may review pump prices in response to global market movements.

US–Iran Talks Show Signs of Progress

US President Donald Trump recently stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened as part of a proposed agreement involving the United States, Iran, and several Middle Eastern countries.

He said discussions with global partners were ongoing and described the talks as “orderly and constructive”.

Trump also noted that final details of the agreement were still being negotiated, but progress had been made toward a possible resolution.

Iran Confirms Negotiation Progress

Iranian authorities confirmed that discussions with the United States are advancing, although they stressed that a final agreement is not imminent.

According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baqai, both sides have reached understanding on several issues, but formal signing of an agreement remains uncertain.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global oil supply passes, remains central to global energy stability.

Any reopening of the waterway under a peace deal is expected to ease supply concerns and further push oil prices downward.

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Nigeria’s potential gains from rising global oil prices are under increasing threat as inflationary pressures continue to mount, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has warned.

The warning comes amid heightened global energy market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions, which have pushed crude oil prices upward, positioning Nigeria for a possible revenue windfall. However, authorities say the same developments are simultaneously driving up domestic costs, undermining the expected economic benefits.

Speaking on the development, Edun noted that while higher oil prices could boost government revenues and strengthen foreign exchange inflows, the accompanying rise in fuel, transportation and food costs poses a significant risk to economic stability and household welfare.

Recent assessments by the government show that global shocks linked to the Middle East crisis are already transmitting into Nigeria’s economy through increased energy prices, exchange rate pressures and rising logistics costs. 

Analysts warn that the inflation surge could erode purchasing power and offset the fiscal gains expected from higher crude prices, reinforcing Nigeria’s long-standing paradox as an oil-producing nation that struggles to translate oil windfalls into broad-based economic relief.

Further compounding the challenge is the lingering impact of recent economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and currency adjustments, which have already elevated the cost of living for many Nigerians.

Economic experts note that although the country stands to benefit from improved oil revenues, the broader macroeconomic outlook remains fragile, with inflation threatening income levels and slowing poverty reduction efforts. 

The Federal Government has therefore intensified monitoring of global oil market developments, capital flows and fiscal risks, with a view to adjusting policy responses to cushion the impact on citizens and businesses.

Edun emphasised the need for prudent management of any oil windfall, stressing that without effective policy coordination, temporary gains could be quickly eroded by rising inflation and structural inefficiencies within the economy.

The development underscores a recurring challenge for Africa’s largest oil producer, where external price shocks often deliver mixed outcomes — boosting revenues on one hand while deepening inflationary pressures on the other.

As global uncertainties persist, economists say Nigeria’s ability to balance fiscal gains with price stability will be critical in determining whether the current oil price rally translates into sustainable economic progress.

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Petrol price hike fears are growing in Nigeria after crude oil surged to $114 per barrel. The sharp increase has raised concerns about further fuel price adjustments across the country.

Reports show that petrol currently sells between ₦1,200 and ₦1,400 per litre in several locations. This trend reflects the direct impact of global oil price movements on the domestic market.

Middle East Crisis Drives Oil Price Surge

The latest spike in crude prices follows escalating tensions in the Middle East. Attacks on key energy facilities have disrupted supply and pushed global oil prices higher.

As a result, Brent crude rose above $114 per barrel, marking one of its highest levels in recent years. The surge highlights the strong link between geopolitical events and energy prices.

Fuel Prices Already Rising Across Nigeria

Fuel prices in Nigeria have shown steady increases since the conflict began. Earlier in the year, petrol sold between ₦730 and ₦880 per litre. However, prices have now climbed significantly due to global pressures.

In addition, marketers have adjusted pump prices multiple times in response to rising costs. This has created uncertainty for consumers and businesses.

Dangote Refinery and Market Reactions

The Dangote Refinery has also adjusted its pricing structure. The refinery recently increased its ex-depot petrol price to about ₦1,175 per litre, citing global crude price trends.

Although local refining was expected to stabilise prices, global market conditions continue to influence domestic costs. Therefore, fuel prices remain sensitive to international developments.

Cooking Gas Prices Show Mixed Trends

While petrol prices rise, cooking gas prices remain relatively stable in some areas. In cities like Lagos and Abuja, rates have not changed significantly.

However, other regions such as the South-East and South-South have recorded higher prices. This variation shows uneven market responses across the country.

Global Uncertainty Raises More Concerns

The ongoing crisis continues to create uncertainty in global energy markets. Analysts warn that further escalation could push oil prices even higher.

As a result, Nigerians may face additional pressure on fuel costs in the coming weeks. The situation highlights the country’s vulnerability to global supply shocks.

Petrol price hike fears remain high as crude oil prices continue to rise. The current trend suggests that fuel costs may increase further if global tensions persist.

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Rising global oil prices triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict are beginning to take a toll on Nigeria’s economy, with transport fares increasing sharply and businesses cutting back on generator use across major cities.

The economic ripple effects follow escalating hostilities involving the , , and , which have disrupted global energy markets and pushed fuel prices upward in several countries, including .

Market checks across major urban centres such as indicate that petrol prices have risen significantly in recent days, forcing transport operators to increase fares and raising the cost of daily commuting for millions of Nigerians.

Fuel prices climb in retail markets

Industry sources say petrol currently sells between ₦1,150 and ₦1,250 per litre in several parts of the country, reflecting the ripple effects of global supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Middle East.

In some Lagos suburbs—including Ajegunle, Orile, Amukoko, and Festac—petrol prices have reached approximately ₦1,225 per litre, while diesel is being sold at about ₦1,620 per litre.

Analysts link the surge in fuel prices to volatility in the global energy market following escalating military confrontations in the Gulf region, one of the world’s most critical oil-producing zones.

The situation underscores Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to external energy shocks despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers.

Transport fares rise across major routes

The increase in petrol prices has quickly translated into higher transport fares across many Nigerian cities.

Commercial transport operators say the rising cost of fuel has forced them to raise fares to remain in business.

On several routes within Lagos, commuters report fare increases of up to 30 percent, adding new financial pressure on households already struggling with inflation and rising living costs.

Some passengers have resorted to trekking shorter distances or reducing travel frequency to manage transportation expenses.

Low-income earners who depend heavily on public transport for daily activities—such as commuting to work, schools, and markets—are among the most affected by the fare hikes.

Small businesses reduce generator usage

The fuel price surge is also affecting small businesses that rely on petrol-powered generators due to Nigeria’s persistent electricity supply challenges.

Many small-scale entrepreneurs say they have started reducing generator usage or shutting down equipment to cut operational costs.

Energy-dependent businesses such as hair salons, food vendors, and neighbourhood retail shops have been particularly impacted, as electricity expenses account for a significant portion of their operating costs.

Business owners say the rising fuel prices are forcing them to make difficult decisions, including shortening working hours or increasing the prices of goods and services.

Global energy disruptions behind price shocks

The economic pressure in Nigeria reflects wider disruptions in global energy markets caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The conflict intensified after coordinated military strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks across parts of the region.

The Gulf region plays a crucial role in global energy supply because a large share of the world’s crude oil shipments passes through its strategic shipping routes.

Any disruption to these supply chains can rapidly push international oil prices higher, affecting countries that depend on imported refined petroleum products.

Inflation risks for Nigeria’s economy

Economic analysts warn that sustained increases in petrol and diesel prices could worsen inflationary pressures across Nigeria.

Higher transportation costs often lead to increases in food prices, logistics charges, and other consumer goods, creating a broader rise in the cost of living.

Experts also caution that emerging economies like Nigeria may face additional economic pressure if geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global markets.

Increased energy costs can weaken household purchasing power and complicate economic recovery efforts in developing countries.

Outlook remains uncertain

The direction of fuel prices in Nigeria will largely depend on how the Middle East conflict evolves in the coming weeks.

If hostilities persist and disruptions to global oil supply intensify, analysts warn that Nigerians may continue to face rising transportation costs, higher energy expenses, and increased inflation across the economy.

However, some industry observers say that improvements in domestic refining capacity could help cushion the impact of global energy shocks over time.

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Escalating tensions involving Israel, Iran and the United States have pushed global oil prices close to the $80 per barrel mark, triggering renewed debate over what the rally means for Nigeria’s fragile economy.

Brent crude surged from $73 per barrel on Friday to $79.49 on Sunday, before easing slightly to $78.19 early Monday. By mid-afternoon trading, the global benchmark hovered around $79 per barrel as markets priced in heightened geopolitical risks.

What’s Driving the Oil Price Surge?

The rally followed fresh hostilities between Israel and Iran, including a reported fire incident at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility caused by debris from intercepted drones.

The developments raised concerns about the security of energy infrastructure in the Gulf region — a critical oil-exporting corridor — increasing risk premiums in global energy markets.

Nigeria’s Mixed Blessing: Higher Oil, Weaker Naira

While higher crude prices typically improve Nigeria’s fiscal outlook as Africa’s largest oil producer, experts caution that structural constraints may limit immediate gains.

On the parallel market, the naira weakened to N1,375/$1, reflecting continued currency volatility despite monetary tightening measures.

Analysts warn that:

• Nigeria’s crude output remains around 1.5 million barrels per day, below its estimated 2 million bpd capacity.

• Under-investment, pipeline vandalism and crude theft continue to constrain production.

• A significant portion of Nigeria’s crude is tied to long-term supply contracts priced below spot market levels.

These factors could prevent the full benefit of Brent’s rally from reaching government revenues.

SBM Intelligence Warns FG Against “Wait-and-See” Approach

In a new report titled “Epic Fury, Enduring Consequences: The Iran Strikes, Global Shockwaves and Africa’s Strategic Reckoning,” SBM Intelligence urged the Federal Government to adopt a proactive strategy.

The advisory firm warned that expectations of sudden fiscal windfalls may be misplaced, noting that much of the short-term upside could accrue to trading partners rather than directly boosting federation revenues.

SBM also advised Nigeria to strengthen economic intelligence capacity and modernise consular services to mitigate geopolitical spillovers.

Inflation Risk Looms for Households, Businesses

Despite being a crude exporter, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products.

With fuel subsidies removed, domestic petrol prices are now directly exposed to global crude movements. Analysts say:

• Higher Brent prices could translate into increased transport and logistics costs.

• Food and consumer prices may rise further.

• Businesses may face rising operational expenses.

Investment firm Afrinvest noted that while higher oil prices could support government revenue, households and businesses should prepare for broader price pressures in the coming months.

Foreign Policy Balancing Act Under Pressure

The geopolitical crisis may also test Nigeria’s diplomatic posture. Successive administrations have maintained balanced relations with Israel, Gulf states and Iran, avoiding direct entanglement in Middle Eastern rivalries.

However, analysts say prolonged conflict could force Nigeria to reassess its strategic positioning, particularly if disruptions affect global energy flows or remittance corridors.

Outlook: Fiscal Relief or Inflation Shock?

With Brent trading near $80 per barrel and the naira under pressure, Nigeria faces a delicate balancing act.

Stronger oil prices may boost revenue projections, but weak production capacity, FX volatility and import dependence could dilute the benefits.

For households and businesses, the coming months may bring renewed inflationary pressures unless global tensions ease.

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