The Federal Ministry of Environment has warned that 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) may experience flooding between June 22 and July 5, 2026, following forecasts of heavy rainfall across several parts of the country.

The warning was issued on Monday through the National Flood Early Warning Centre under the ministry’s Erosion, Flood and Coastal Zone Management Department.

FG Identifies High-Risk and Critical Flood Zones

According to the advisory dated June 22, 2026, several communities across the country have been classified as either critical-risk or high-risk flood zones.

States listed under the critical-risk category include Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Imo, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo and Rivers.

Lagos, Rivers, Anambra, FCT Among Most Vulnerable Areas

The ministry identified numerous flood-prone communities likely to be affected by heavy rainfall and rising water levels.

In Lagos State, vulnerable areas include Agege, Alimosho, Apapa, Badagry, Ikeja, Ikorodu, Lagos Island, Lekki and Surulere.

In the FCT, high-risk areas include Abuja Municipal, Gwagwalada, Kubwa, Nyanya and Wuse.

Other identified locations include Onitsha and Awka (Anambra), Yenagoa (Bayelsa), Makurdi (Benue), Calabar (Cross River), Warri and Sapele (Delta), Enugu and Nsukka (Enugu), Owerri (Imo), Lokoja (Kogi), Ilorin (Kwara), and Port Harcourt (Rivers).

FG Issues Safety Advisory to Residents

The ministry urged residents in high-risk communities to take urgent precautionary measures to reduce potential impact.

It advised communities in critical zones to maintain flood watch, identify evacuation routes, and avoid building or trading in flood-prone areas.

“Communities classified as Critical should maintain immediate flood watch, identify evacuation routes, protect vulnerable households,” the advisory stated.

For high-risk areas, the ministry called for intensified drainage clearance, monitoring of waterways, and improved community reporting of rising water levels.

Rising Concern Over Seasonal Flooding

The warning comes amid the peak of Nigeria’s rainy season, raising concerns over possible displacement of residents, destruction of property, and disruption of economic activities in vulnerable areas.

Authorities have urged state governments and emergency agencies to step up preparedness measures to prevent avoidable losses.

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Experts from the Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development (CHSD), University of Lagos (UNILAG), and the African Cities Research Consortium (ACRC) have called for immediate intervention in high-risk, flood-prone communities in Lagos to avert large-scale damage to lives, homes and infrastructure.

The warning was issued during a Stakeholders’ Consultative Forum on the Ajegunle-Ikorodu Action Research on Climate Resilience held at the Agboyi-Ketu Local Council Development Area (LCDA).

Lagos at Growing Risk

Speaking at the forum, CHSD Co-Director and Action Research for Climate Resilience Lead, Peter Elias, revealed that precipitation levels in Lagos are projected to double by 2050. He cautioned that without proactive adaptation measures, rising sea levels could leave nearly 50 per cent of the city underwater by 2100.

Elias explained that while climate change is a global phenomenon that cannot be entirely eliminated, its impacts can be mitigated through forward-looking urban planning and resilient infrastructure.

According to him, vulnerable communities—particularly informal settlements along lagoon and ocean frontiers—face the greatest threat. He noted that Ajegunle-Ikorodu was selected for the research because of its low-lying coastal terrain and escalating rainfall patterns.

“Flooding in the area is not solely linked to rainfall or dam releases but also to ocean surges caused by backflow from the Atlantic Ocean,” Elias said.

44,000 Residents Exposed

The study found that more than 44,000 residents and over 6,000 buildings in Ajegunle-Ikorodu are exposed to flood risks, with the most vulnerable zones located in the lowest-lying sections of the community.

Elias added that rapid urbanisation, inadequate drainage systems and indiscriminate waste disposal have compounded the problem, placing homes, businesses and public infrastructure under increasing strain.

He warned that existing infrastructure design standards are insufficient to withstand projected future climate conditions. Local drainage systems currently built for five- to 10-year storm events, he said, must be upgraded to accommodate 25-year storms under RCP 4.5 and 50-year storms under RCP 8.5 climate scenarios.

“Major drainage channels should be expanded to handle 50- to 100-year design capacity. Roads and culverts require additional freeboard of between 0.5 and 1.0 metres, while critical facilities such as schools and markets must be elevated above projected flood levels,” he stated.

Global Relevance of Local Action

The City Manager of ACRC, Temilade Sesan, highlighted the global importance of the initiative, noting that Lagos is contributing significantly to international discussions on climate-smart urban transformation.

She explained that ACRC adopts a long-term theory-of-change approach, defining future goals and working backwards to determine the steps required today to achieve resilient outcomes.

Council Backs Research-Driven Solutions

Chairman of Agboyi-Ketu LCDA, Adetola Abubakar, described flooding and other climate-related challenges in the area as serious but surmountable.

She commended CHSD and ACRC for pursuing sustainable, research-based interventions and assured stakeholders of the council’s readiness to support implementation of recommended strategies.

Abubakar noted that Agboyi-Ketu is uniquely vulnerable due to its riverine and island geography. The Agboyi I, II and III communities sit within the Lagos Lagoon, while Ajegunle lies along interconnected creeks, increasing exposure to tidal surges and heavy rainfall events.

Toward a Resilient Future

Founding Director of CHSD, Timothy Nubi, described Ajegunle-Ikorodu as highly vulnerable to climate hazards and emphasised that collaboration between research institutions and local authorities is essential to building resilience.

He said the partnership aims to deliver practical, community-based strategies that address both immediate flooding challenges and long-term sustainability.

A community representative, Olawale Oyeneye, who has participated in the research since June 2025, praised the inclusive data-gathering process. He said residents’ involvement has helped identify additional community needs, including improved schools and 24-hour healthcare services.

As climate threats intensify, experts at the forum stressed that timely intervention, infrastructure upgrades and coordinated planning are critical to safeguarding Lagos’ coastal communities and ensuring the city’s long-term resilience.

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