Millions of people in the United Kingdom are expected to benefit as the government begins consultations on suspending tariffs on more than 120 everyday essential items.

The UK government announced on Wednesday that the products covered under the proposed policy have been published, building on the tariff suspension initiative first introduced in April.

The list of 125 items includes garlic, avocados, mangoes, nectarines, vegetable oil, chocolate, sauces, soft drinks, fresh fruits and vegetables, olive oil and baked beans.

Authorities said the government would engage businesses and other stakeholders before implementing the plan, while also increasing mileage rates for about three million people who use their personal vehicles for work purposes.

The government is equally seeking public and industry input on whether suspending tariffs on certain fertilisers could help farmers manage rising production costs linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, said the administration was introducing measures to cushion the impact of global economic pressures and keep household prices under control.

According to Reeves, the fuel duty freeze, increase in mileage rate — the first adjustment in 15 years — and temporary VAT reductions form part of broader efforts to ease financial pressure on residents and businesses.

She noted that the relief measures recognise the exposure of farmers and transport operators to high fuel costs and their critical role in maintaining supply chains across the country.

“We are a government firmly on the side of drivers, and that means acting when hardworking people are being left out of pocket,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.

The government said the proposed tariff suspension is expected to lower import costs, reduce pressure on food prices and support economic stability amid global inflation concerns.

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Fuel prices may decline in the coming days as global crude oil prices continue to fall following ongoing peace talks between the United States and Iran, raising optimism in global energy markets.

Oil prices dropped from about $111 last week to $97 per barrel on Monday morning, signalling a sharp reversal after months of volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Oil Price Decline Follows Diplomatic Progress

Brent crude had previously hovered between $103 and $105 per barrel, supported by fears surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran.

However, renewed diplomatic engagement and reports of progress in peace talks have triggered a significant market correction, with prices sliding to $97.48 per barrel.

Analysts say the decline reflects expectations that the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, may soon reopen under a potential US–Iran agreement.

Impact of Middle East Conflict on Oil Prices

Crude oil prices had surged above $100 per barrel after tensions escalated between the United States and Iran in late February.

At the peak of the crisis, prices crossed $115 per barrel, causing ripple effects across global fuel markets.

In Nigeria, petrol prices rose from around N830 per litre to about N1,300, while diesel and aviation fuel also recorded sharp increases, putting pressure on households, transport operators, and airline companies.

Nigeria Watches as Global Prices Decline

With crude prices now trending downward, market observers say there is growing speculation that fuel prices in Nigeria could ease if the decline continues.

There are also expectations that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other downstream operators may review pump prices in response to global market movements.

US–Iran Talks Show Signs of Progress

US President Donald Trump recently stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened as part of a proposed agreement involving the United States, Iran, and several Middle Eastern countries.

He said discussions with global partners were ongoing and described the talks as “orderly and constructive”.

Trump also noted that final details of the agreement were still being negotiated, but progress had been made toward a possible resolution.

Iran Confirms Negotiation Progress

Iranian authorities confirmed that discussions with the United States are advancing, although they stressed that a final agreement is not imminent.

According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baqai, both sides have reached understanding on several issues, but formal signing of an agreement remains uncertain.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global oil supply passes, remains central to global energy stability.

Any reopening of the waterway under a peace deal is expected to ease supply concerns and further push oil prices downward.

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The World Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026 downward to 4.1 per cent, citing mounting debt, rising fuel and fertilizer costs, and fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict as key risks. The new projection, released Wednesday, marks a decline from the 4.4 per cent forecast in October and indicates growth will remain flat compared to 2025.

According to Andrew Dabalen, World Bank chief economist for Africa, the forecast reflects a more challenging external environment than anticipated. Energy and fertilizer price spikes following the Iran conflict, alongside uncertain investment flows from Gulf countries, have placed additional strain on African economies.

The report warns that remittance inflows, a critical lifeline for millions of African households, may also be affected if Middle East labour demand weakens. The potential slowdown in these transfers could further limit consumption and economic stability.

Debt pressures across the region remain severe. Debt-servicing costs have nearly doubled over the past decade, rising from 9 per cent of government revenues in 2017 to roughly 18 per cent in 2025. Nearly half of Sub-Saharan countries are now classified as either at high risk of debt distress or already experiencing it, leaving governments with limited capacity to respond to new shocks.

The report highlights particular vulnerability in oil-importing and financially fragile economies, including Burundi, Malawi, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mozambique. For instance, Kenya may face significant inflationary pressures, while Ethiopia is exposed due to its large workforce in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.

While West Africa appears relatively less affected, Dabalen cautioned that incomplete fertilizer data for the sub-region may mask emerging risks.

The World Bank’s assessment underscores Sub-Saharan Africa’s heightened susceptibility to global shocks, warning that geopolitical tensions, commodity price fluctuations, and structural debt challenges continue to weigh heavily on economic recovery prospects.

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Iran has issued a fresh warning that hotels accommodating United States soldiers across the Middle East will be treated as legitimate targets amid the ongoing conflict involving Washington and its allies.

The threat was delivered by Iranian armed forces spokesperson, General Abolfazl Shekarchi, who stated that any location hosting American troops would be considered part of US military infrastructure. He argued that once US personnel occupy civilian facilities such as hotels, those locations effectively become military targets. 

The warning comes as tensions continue to escalate following the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, when joint strikes by the United States and Israel triggered a broader regional conflict. Iran has since retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US and allied interests across the Middle East. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also accused US forces of using civilians in Gulf countries as “human shields,” alleging that American troops have relocated from traditional military bases to hotels and office spaces. He called on hospitality providers in the region to refuse accommodation to US personnel. 

Reports indicate that Iranian authorities have issued warnings to hotels in key locations, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, while also identifying similar troop movements in countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Djibouti. 

The development reflects a shift in battlefield dynamics, as damage to US military bases has reportedly forced some troops to operate from temporary civilian locations, including hotels. 

Security analysts warn that the threat could heighten risks for civilians and businesses across the region, particularly in major commercial hubs where foreign military personnel may be present. The situation continues to raise concerns about the potential expansion of the conflict and its impact on regional stability.

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The government of has outlined key conditions it says must be met before the ongoing conflict with the and can come to an end, as fighting between the sides continues to escalate across the Middle East.

President said Iran remains open to ending the war but insists that certain demands must be addressed to guarantee lasting peace and prevent future military aggression.

Iran Sets Conditions for Ending Hostilities

In a statement shared on , Pezeshkian said the war — which he claimed was triggered by the United States and Israel — can only end if the international community acknowledges Iran’s rights and ensures accountability for the destruction caused during the conflict.

According to him, Iran is demanding three major conditions before hostilities can cease.

First, the country wants formal recognition of what it described as its legitimate national rights.

Second, Tehran is calling for financial reparations to compensate for the loss of lives and infrastructure damage resulting from the conflict.

Third, Iran wants strong international guarantees that it will not face similar military attacks in the future.

The Iranian president also revealed that he had held discussions with leaders of and , reiterating his country’s willingness to pursue peace while defending its sovereignty.

Conflict Escalation in the Middle East

The war intensified after joint strikes carried out by the United States and Israel on February 28 targeted several strategic sites in Iran.

The attacks reportedly led to the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader , along with senior military officials and civilians.

Following the strikes, Iran’s launched retaliatory missile attacks on Israeli targets and United States military installations across the region.

Rising Civilian Casualties

Iran’s envoy to the , , said the conflict has already caused heavy civilian casualties.

According to the Iranian diplomat, more than 1,300 civilians have been killed since the conflict began, while thousands of others have been injured during the military operations.

UN Security Council Responds

Meanwhile, the adopted a resolution condemning Iranian attacks on several countries in the Gulf region.

The resolution criticised strikes targeting territories of , , , , , , and , describing them as threats to international peace.

However, permanent members and abstained from voting on the resolution.

Oil Routes and Global Markets at Risk

The escalating conflict has also raised concerns about the security of global oil supply routes, particularly around the , a key passage for international crude shipments.

Reports indicate that military activities in the have already affected several oil tankers, increasing fears of disruption to global energy markets.

Trump Says War Already Won

Despite the ongoing hostilities, , President of the United States, recently claimed that American forces had already achieved victory in the conflict.

However, he confirmed that US troops would remain deployed in the region until the military mission is fully completed.

Analysts warn that unless diplomatic efforts succeed, the conflict could further destabilise the Middle East and disrupt global energy supply chains.

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Rising global oil prices triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict are beginning to take a toll on Nigeria’s economy, with transport fares increasing sharply and businesses cutting back on generator use across major cities.

The economic ripple effects follow escalating hostilities involving the , , and , which have disrupted global energy markets and pushed fuel prices upward in several countries, including .

Market checks across major urban centres such as indicate that petrol prices have risen significantly in recent days, forcing transport operators to increase fares and raising the cost of daily commuting for millions of Nigerians.

Fuel prices climb in retail markets

Industry sources say petrol currently sells between ₦1,150 and ₦1,250 per litre in several parts of the country, reflecting the ripple effects of global supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Middle East.

In some Lagos suburbs—including Ajegunle, Orile, Amukoko, and Festac—petrol prices have reached approximately ₦1,225 per litre, while diesel is being sold at about ₦1,620 per litre.

Analysts link the surge in fuel prices to volatility in the global energy market following escalating military confrontations in the Gulf region, one of the world’s most critical oil-producing zones.

The situation underscores Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to external energy shocks despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers.

Transport fares rise across major routes

The increase in petrol prices has quickly translated into higher transport fares across many Nigerian cities.

Commercial transport operators say the rising cost of fuel has forced them to raise fares to remain in business.

On several routes within Lagos, commuters report fare increases of up to 30 percent, adding new financial pressure on households already struggling with inflation and rising living costs.

Some passengers have resorted to trekking shorter distances or reducing travel frequency to manage transportation expenses.

Low-income earners who depend heavily on public transport for daily activities—such as commuting to work, schools, and markets—are among the most affected by the fare hikes.

Small businesses reduce generator usage

The fuel price surge is also affecting small businesses that rely on petrol-powered generators due to Nigeria’s persistent electricity supply challenges.

Many small-scale entrepreneurs say they have started reducing generator usage or shutting down equipment to cut operational costs.

Energy-dependent businesses such as hair salons, food vendors, and neighbourhood retail shops have been particularly impacted, as electricity expenses account for a significant portion of their operating costs.

Business owners say the rising fuel prices are forcing them to make difficult decisions, including shortening working hours or increasing the prices of goods and services.

Global energy disruptions behind price shocks

The economic pressure in Nigeria reflects wider disruptions in global energy markets caused by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The conflict intensified after coordinated military strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026, which triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks across parts of the region.

The Gulf region plays a crucial role in global energy supply because a large share of the world’s crude oil shipments passes through its strategic shipping routes.

Any disruption to these supply chains can rapidly push international oil prices higher, affecting countries that depend on imported refined petroleum products.

Inflation risks for Nigeria’s economy

Economic analysts warn that sustained increases in petrol and diesel prices could worsen inflationary pressures across Nigeria.

Higher transportation costs often lead to increases in food prices, logistics charges, and other consumer goods, creating a broader rise in the cost of living.

Experts also caution that emerging economies like Nigeria may face additional economic pressure if geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global markets.

Increased energy costs can weaken household purchasing power and complicate economic recovery efforts in developing countries.

Outlook remains uncertain

The direction of fuel prices in Nigeria will largely depend on how the Middle East conflict evolves in the coming weeks.

If hostilities persist and disruptions to global oil supply intensify, analysts warn that Nigerians may continue to face rising transportation costs, higher energy expenses, and increased inflation across the economy.

However, some industry observers say that improvements in domestic refining capacity could help cushion the impact of global energy shocks over time.

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U.S. President Donald Trump has said the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran could end soon, seeking to reassure global markets rattled by rising oil prices and escalating tensions across the Middle East.

Speaking during a press briefing, Trump described the military campaign as nearing completion and suggested the situation may stabilise shortly, despite continued hostilities in the region.

“We’re very far ahead of schedule. It’s going to be over soon,” Trump said while addressing reporters.

Markets react to war fears

The conflict has triggered sharp volatility in global financial markets. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, the highest level since the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as concerns mounted over disruptions to global energy supply.

However, prices later declined after Trump’s comments raised expectations that the war might end sooner than anticipated. Brent crude fell sharply while global stock markets began recovering from earlier losses.

Asian markets, including major indexes in Tokyo and Seoul, recorded gains after investors reacted positively to signs of possible de-escalation.

Strait of Hormuz crisis raises global concern

The conflict has also intensified concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

Nearly 20 percent of global oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, making any disruption a major risk for global energy markets and international trade.

Iranian forces have reportedly targeted regional infrastructure and launched missile attacks across parts of the Middle East as tensions escalate.

Energy analysts warn that prolonged instability around the Gulf could trigger wider economic consequences if oil shipments remain disrupted.

Iran pushes back

Despite Trump’s optimistic outlook, Iranian officials insist they will decide when the conflict ends.

Leaders within Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have vowed to continue resisting U.S. and allied operations, warning that Tehran will not allow oil exports from the region if military strikes continue.

The conflict has already expanded across multiple fronts in the Middle East, increasing fears of a broader regional war involving several countries.

Global economy on edge

Experts say financial markets will continue to react sharply to developments in the conflict, particularly those affecting oil supply routes and regional security.

While Trump’s remarks have eased short-term fears among investors, analysts caution that geopolitical tensions remain high and the outlook for global energy markets is still uncertain.

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Rising tensions in the Middle East are beginning to affect Nigeria’s economy as increasing global crude oil prices push petrol costs higher and trigger fresh increases in transport fares and food prices across the country.

Across major cities including Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Port Harcourt, Kaduna and Yenagoa, motorists and commuters are facing a new round of petrol price adjustments, with the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) climbing to between N1,020 and N1,100 per litre at many filling stations.

The development has raised concerns among residents, transport operators and traders who fear the situation could further worsen the cost of living.

Petrol prices rise across major cities

Checks at filling stations in Lagos showed petrol selling between N1,050 and N1,100 per litre depending on the outlet.

Retail stations operated by Northwest Petroleum sell petrol for about N1,050 per litre, while TotalEnergies outlets dispense at around N1,055 per litre.

Stations belonging to MRS Oil Nigeria Plc sell at approximately N1,057 per litre, while some Mobil stations charge as high as N1,100 per litre.

The rising fuel price has already triggered increases in transportation costs.

Ekundayo Oladimeji, a commercial bus driver operating between Ogba and Ikeja in Lagos, said fares had risen from N400 to N500 due to the surge in petrol prices.

“There is no doubt transport fares will increase. We have started charging N500 from Ogba to Ikeja. On Monday it may increase to N700,” he said.

However, some drivers said they were struggling to raise fares due to passengers’ resistance despite higher fuel costs.

Food prices also surge

The rise in petrol prices has also begun affecting food markets as the cost of transporting agricultural produce increases.

Traders in Lagos reported sharp increases in the prices of pepper and tomatoes.

A small bag of pepper now sells for about N82,000 compared to N18,000 previously. A medium bag has risen to about N122,000 from N22,000, while a large bag now sells for about N172,000 compared to around N70,000 earlier.

Tomatoes have also recorded significant increases, with a small bag rising from about N22,000 to roughly N50,000, while a large bag now sells for about N125,000 compared to N62,000 previously.

Residents say the increases are already affecting household budgets.

Oyekale Oluwasegun, a Lagos resident, said the cost of commuting has increased significantly.

“A trip from Powerline to Ogba that used to cost N200 now costs about N300. I already have my monthly budget planned, but this increase has affected it,” he said.

Similar situation across states

In Kano, several filling stations including AY Maikifi, Aliko Oil and AA Rano have increased pump prices from about N980 per litre to between N1,050 and N1,104.

At stations operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), petrol sold for as high as N1,084 per litre.

In Abuja, petrol now sells between N1,050 and N1,080 per litre compared to previous prices of about N845 to N875.

In border areas of Ogun State, particularly around Abeokuta, petrol has reportedly risen to between N1,300 and N1,400 per litre.

Residents say transport fares have increased sharply in response.

In Yenagoa and Port Harcourt, petrol prices now range between N970 and N1,050 per litre, pushing up the cost of food items and transportation.

Middle East conflict drives oil price surge

The latest increase in fuel prices coincides with rising global crude oil prices following escalating hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

The conflict has raised fears of disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East, one of the world’s most important energy-producing regions.

Global crude oil prices have risen to about $93 per barrel from around $69 at the start of the conflict.

Analysts warn that prices could climb as high as $130 per barrel if tensions continue to escalate.

Dangote refinery adjusts price

Dangote Refinery recently increased its ex-depot price of petrol to N995 per litre from N874 in response to the rising cost of crude oil.

The company explained that while it receives some crude oil supplies paid for in naira, the volume is insufficient to meet its monthly demand.

According to the refinery, it receives about five cargoes of crude monthly but requires 13 cargoes to meet domestic production needs.

The remaining supply is sourced from local and international traders at international market prices, which are paid for using foreign exchange.

Expert warns Nigerians to prepare for higher costs

An economist and oil and gas analyst, Dr Marcel Okeke, warned that Nigerians should prepare for further increases in fuel prices and inflation if the Middle East conflict continues.

According to him, rising global crude oil prices quickly translate into higher petrol prices in Nigeria due to the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products and international pricing benchmarks.

“When the price of fuel goes up, it immediately affects transportation costs, food prices and logistics. This will ultimately lead to higher inflation,” he said.

Market forces driving pump prices

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said the recent fuel price fluctuations are a result of market forces in Nigeria’s deregulated petroleum sector.

Spokesperson of the agency, George Ene-Ita, explained that pump prices now respond directly to supply and demand conditions.

According to him, the deregulated framework allows market forces to determine fuel prices while encouraging competition and investment in the downstream oil sector.

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Escalating tensions involving Israel, Iran and the United States have pushed global oil prices close to the $80 per barrel mark, triggering renewed debate over what the rally means for Nigeria’s fragile economy.

Brent crude surged from $73 per barrel on Friday to $79.49 on Sunday, before easing slightly to $78.19 early Monday. By mid-afternoon trading, the global benchmark hovered around $79 per barrel as markets priced in heightened geopolitical risks.

What’s Driving the Oil Price Surge?

The rally followed fresh hostilities between Israel and Iran, including a reported fire incident at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility caused by debris from intercepted drones.

The developments raised concerns about the security of energy infrastructure in the Gulf region — a critical oil-exporting corridor — increasing risk premiums in global energy markets.

Nigeria’s Mixed Blessing: Higher Oil, Weaker Naira

While higher crude prices typically improve Nigeria’s fiscal outlook as Africa’s largest oil producer, experts caution that structural constraints may limit immediate gains.

On the parallel market, the naira weakened to N1,375/$1, reflecting continued currency volatility despite monetary tightening measures.

Analysts warn that:

• Nigeria’s crude output remains around 1.5 million barrels per day, below its estimated 2 million bpd capacity.

• Under-investment, pipeline vandalism and crude theft continue to constrain production.

• A significant portion of Nigeria’s crude is tied to long-term supply contracts priced below spot market levels.

These factors could prevent the full benefit of Brent’s rally from reaching government revenues.

SBM Intelligence Warns FG Against “Wait-and-See” Approach

In a new report titled “Epic Fury, Enduring Consequences: The Iran Strikes, Global Shockwaves and Africa’s Strategic Reckoning,” SBM Intelligence urged the Federal Government to adopt a proactive strategy.

The advisory firm warned that expectations of sudden fiscal windfalls may be misplaced, noting that much of the short-term upside could accrue to trading partners rather than directly boosting federation revenues.

SBM also advised Nigeria to strengthen economic intelligence capacity and modernise consular services to mitigate geopolitical spillovers.

Inflation Risk Looms for Households, Businesses

Despite being a crude exporter, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products.

With fuel subsidies removed, domestic petrol prices are now directly exposed to global crude movements. Analysts say:

• Higher Brent prices could translate into increased transport and logistics costs.

• Food and consumer prices may rise further.

• Businesses may face rising operational expenses.

Investment firm Afrinvest noted that while higher oil prices could support government revenue, households and businesses should prepare for broader price pressures in the coming months.

Foreign Policy Balancing Act Under Pressure

The geopolitical crisis may also test Nigeria’s diplomatic posture. Successive administrations have maintained balanced relations with Israel, Gulf states and Iran, avoiding direct entanglement in Middle Eastern rivalries.

However, analysts say prolonged conflict could force Nigeria to reassess its strategic positioning, particularly if disruptions affect global energy flows or remittance corridors.

Outlook: Fiscal Relief or Inflation Shock?

With Brent trading near $80 per barrel and the naira under pressure, Nigeria faces a delicate balancing act.

Stronger oil prices may boost revenue projections, but weak production capacity, FX volatility and import dependence could dilute the benefits.

For households and businesses, the coming months may bring renewed inflationary pressures unless global tensions ease.

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The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) has warned of flight cancellations and delays affecting Nigerian routes to Middle East destinations following widespread airspace closures across the region.

In an advisory issued on Sunday, FAAN said the disruptions are linked to ongoing military tensions that have forced several countries to shut or restrict their airspace, impacting international carriers operating between Nigeria and major Gulf hubs.

Routes to Gulf Hubs Affected

Flights to destinations such as Doha, Dubai and other Middle Eastern transit points have been delayed or cancelled, affecting airlines including Emirates and Qatar Airways operating from Nigerian international airports.

FAAN emphasised that the situation is beyond the control of Nigerian airport authorities and local operators. Passengers were advised to contact their respective airlines for updates on flight status, rescheduling options or refund procedures.

Airlines Adjust Operations

Other carriers operating through the affected airspace including Etihad Airways, Kuwait Airways, and Air Arabia—have reportedly taken precautionary measures such as temporary suspensions or schedule adjustments.

International airlines such as Air France, Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa and Air India have also altered operations in response to safety assessments and regulatory directives, contributing to broader global travel disruptions.

Escalating Regional Tensions

The airspace closures follow a sharp escalation in hostilities involving United States, Israel, and Iran, which triggered temporary shutdowns of civilian airspace across parts of the Persian Gulf and neighbouring regions.

Countries including Iraq, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan have imposed restrictions as a precautionary measure to safeguard civilian aircraft from potential conflict zones.

The Middle East remains a critical aviation corridor linking Africa, Europe and Asia. Its partial shutdown has forced airlines worldwide to reroute flights, delay departures or cancel services altogether.

Impact on Nigerian Travellers

Nigerian passengers travelling to or transiting through Middle Eastern hubs are among those affected. Some travellers have reported being prevented from boarding scheduled flights, while others face extended delays or sudden cancellations.

Airlines have reiterated that passenger and crew safety remains their top priority. Many carriers are offering flexible rebooking policies and refund options, though prolonged disruptions remain possible until regional airspace conditions stabilise.

FAAN urged travellers to monitor official airline communication channels and prepare for possible adjustments to their travel plans as the situation continues to evolve.

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