The Nigerian naira continued its gradual decline against the United States dollar on Wednesday, 25 February 2026, closing at N1,359.5 per dollar in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).

Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that the naira opened trading at N1,356.11 per dollar and ended the session slightly weaker, reflecting ongoing pressures on the currency amid domestic and global economic challenges.

This movement indicates a marginal depreciation compared with Tuesday’s NFEM rates, where the naira opened at N1,355.37 and closed at N1,359.00. Analysts describe this as a manageable shift, highlighting that timely interventions by the CBN could stabilize the naira in the coming weeks.

The parallel, or black-market, rate shows a sharper divergence from the official market. Bureau de Change operators in major commercial centres—including Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Kano—reported buying and selling rates of N1,370 and N1,390 per dollar, respectively. The higher rates in the unofficial market reflect persistent dollar demand and supply constraints, which continue to exert pressure on local businesses and consumers.

Financial experts note that the widening gap between official and parallel market rates underscores structural challenges within Nigeria’s forex market. These include limited dollar inflows, reliance on imports for critical goods, and the volatility of global oil prices, which remain a major driver of Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.

“The naira’s stability is influenced by multiple factors—external reserves, trade balance, and market confidence. The recent slight depreciation in the official market is manageable, but the parallel market shows the real strain felt by businesses and households demanding dollars for transactions,” said a Lagos-based forex analyst who preferred anonymity.

Despite these pressures, there is cautious optimism that the CBN’s interventions—such as forex auctions and policy adjustments—could restore confidence in the official market. Historical trends suggest that these measures can curb excessive volatility when applied consistently and transparently.

Businesses and importers are feeling the impact of the currency gap, particularly those relying on foreign inputs. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) report that the disparity between official and parallel market rates has increased operational costs, forcing some to raise prices or delay imports.

“Every week, we monitor the naira’s movement closely. The gap between the official rate and what we pay in the parallel market affects our cost projections and pricing strategy,” said Adeola Johnson, a Lagos-based trader. “Until there is a closer alignment, businesses will continue to bear the burden of currency fluctuations.”

Economists point out that sustained naira depreciation in the parallel market could have broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures, reduced purchasing power, and strain on foreign debt servicing. Conversely, a stable naira would encourage investment, support consumer confidence, and bolster Nigeria’s economic recovery trajectory.

The CBN has repeatedly emphasized the importance of a market-friendly approach to forex management. Analysts believe that consistent policy measures, transparent interventions, and promotion of local production to reduce import dependency could gradually ease the parallel market premium and enhance the naira’s resilience.

In summary, while the naira’s official-market depreciation to N1,359.5 per dollar is moderate, the parallel market reflects deeper pressures caused by high dollar demand and supply constraints. Stakeholders—including the CBN, businesses, and consumers—must remain vigilant, with a coordinated approach to stabilize the currency and protect economic growth.

Market Summary:

• NFEM (Official) — N1,359.5 /$
• Parallel Market — N1,370 – N1,390

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The Naira ended the week on a slightly weaker note, depreciating by N2.60 against the United States dollar to close at N1,450.42/$ on Friday at the official foreign exchange market.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the currency dipped by 0.17 per cent compared to Thursday’s closing rate of N1,447.82/$, extending a trend of modest fluctuations recorded throughout the week.

On Wednesday, the local currency traded at N1,447.64/$, a 0.1 per cent decline driven by sustained demand pressure and limited dollar supply in the official window. The depreciation continued a series of mild movements that began earlier in the week when the Naira exchanged at N1,445.39/$ on Tuesday, weaker than Monday’s N1,448.43/$.

Market analysts say the week’s trading pattern highlights the fragility of the official FX market, where frequent but moderate swings reflect ongoing supply constraints and seasonal demand.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that these modest losses have become increasingly common in recent months as the market adjusts to evolving monetary and fiscal interventions.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the Nigerian government to intensify structural reforms as it projected the country’s real GDP to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026, up from 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2024. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released in October 2025, stressed that while global growth appears to be stabilizing, emerging economies like Nigeria must adopt credible, transparent, and sustainable policies to ensure long-term economic resilience. It also called for the rebuilding of fiscal buffers, the preservation of central bank independence, and the acceleration of policy reforms.

Global economic growth is expected to decline marginally from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. Advanced economies are projected to grow at an average of 1.5 percent, while emerging and developing markets, including Nigeria, are expected to average just over 4 percent. Inflation is forecast to fall globally, but trends remain uneven, with risks tilted to the upside in countries like the United States, while other economies may see more subdued inflation rates.

During a press briefing at the IMF World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said the depreciation of the naira should not be viewed solely as a negative indicator. According to him, exchange rate movements serve as buffers against economic shocks and can support necessary adjustments in the domestic economy. He described Nigeria’s recent monetary policy improvements, enhanced revenue collection, and improved transparency in foreign exchange reserve management as positive steps. These efforts, he noted, have contributed to a decline in inflation from over 30 percent to about 23 percent and have also strengthened Nigeria’s external reserve position.

Adrian further highlighted that Nigeria’s transition toward a more flexible exchange rate regime aligns with the IMF’s broader recommendations for economic reform. The Fund considers such a move critical in helping Nigeria improve competitiveness and build economic resilience. Other IMF officials present at the briefing, including Deputy Director Athanasios Vamvakidis and Assistant Director Jason Wu, echoed similar sentiments. They underscored the role of flexible exchange rates as automatic stabilizers that can help mitigate the impact of external economic shocks.

The IMF also commended Nigeria’s recent progress in fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic governance. It noted that ongoing reforms in public finance management, along with increased clarity around FX operations, mark a notable improvement in Nigeria’s economic framework. However, the Fund maintained that the reform momentum must continue.

In conclusion, the IMF advised Nigerian authorities to remain committed to structural adjustments, institutional strengthening, and prudent monetary and fiscal strategies. These actions, it said, are essential for sustaining growth, reducing inflationary pressures, and achieving long-term macroeconomic stability.

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The House of Representatives has summoned Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso and chief executives of major commercial banks to explain widespread complaints of arbitrary deductions and excessive charges levied on customers’ accounts.

The resolution followed a motion raised by Hon. Muktar Shagaya (APC, Kwara) during Tuesday’s plenary, which highlighted the growing burden of unexplained banking fees faced by millions of Nigerians.

Shagaya accused commercial banks of routinely applying multiple and unjustified charges, including SMS alert fees, card maintenance costs, interbank transfer fees, and account maintenance deductions, many of which, he argued, contravene existing CBN regulations.

“Nigerians are being short-changed through opaque and often duplicated charges. These practices not only erode trust in the banking system but also undermine efforts to deepen financial inclusion,” he said.

In response, the House mandated its Committee on Banking Regulations to convene an investigative hearing within four weeks, summoning both the CBN Governor and bank executives to account for the practices and present a plan for reform.

Lawmakers also called on the CBN to urgently publish a simplified, publicly accessible list of approved bank charges and enforce sanctions against any institution found violating those guidelines.

Additionally, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) was directed to launch a nationwide awareness campaign to educate customers on their rights and mechanisms for seeking redress against exploitative banking practices.

The development comes amid growing public frustration over rising living costs, record inflation above 30 percent, and the naira’s continued depreciation, factors that have amplified scrutiny of financial institutions and regulatory oversight.

Analysts say the move signals increasing legislative pressure on regulators to tighten consumer protection measures in Nigeria’s banking sector.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the depreciation of the Nigerian Naira may serve as a necessary adjustment mechanism and is not inherently harmful to the economy.

Speaking during a press briefing at the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s Financial Counsellor and Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, said exchange rates can play a stabilizing role in economies facing external shocks.

“A depreciating exchange rate is not necessarily a bad thing. It may actually be a good thing to restore equilibrium,” Adrian explained, in response to questions about the Naira’s value. He noted that the Fund generally supports a shift toward more flexible exchange rate regimes.

Adrian acknowledged that Nigeria has made progress in strengthening its policy frameworks. “We’ve seen many steps on the monetary policy side. Revenue collection has improved, and there’s greater transparency in foreign exchange reserve reporting,” he said.

He pointed to signs of improvement in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators, including a decline in inflation from over 30% in 2024 to around 23% in 2025. “The direction of travel appears to be positive,” he added.

Despite this progress, Adrian warned that Sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, still faces vulnerabilities. With global financial conditions tightening and capital flows becoming more volatile, countries in the region risk exposure to sudden outflows, especially if underlying economic fundamentals are weak.

He urged governments to maintain strong monetary and fiscal policies, while also investing in structural reforms such as tax mobilization and debt management. “Nigeria is making efforts in these areas, and continued support from the international community will be important,” Adrian said.

Commenting on the global regulatory landscape for digital currencies, Adrian welcomed the introduction of stablecoin regulations in several countries. He cited recent legislation in the United States, as well as existing regulatory frameworks in the European Union and Japan, as examples of progress.

“Globally, there are around $400 billion in outstanding stablecoins, most of which are denominated in U.S. dollars. Regulations are beginning to catch up with the market,” he said.

The IMF, he noted, released a comprehensive policy framework for crypto assets in 2023, which outlines key regulatory principles and recommendations. While implementation differs across countries, Adrian said the overall direction of regulatory efforts is broadly aligned with the Fund’s guidance.

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Financial data from Dangote Cement Plc, BUA Cement Plc, and Lafarge Africa Plc compiled from audited and unaudited reports by THE WHISTLER revealed that energy costs alone accounted for 21.75% of the industry’s total revenue of ₦5.15 trillion in 2024, up from ₦3.06 trillion the previous year.

Energy expenses also represented 43.64% of the combined ₦2.57 trillion cost of sales for the three companies underscoring how critical power and fuel inputs remain to cement production.

The companies attributed the spike in costs to the continued depreciation of the naira, persistent inflation, and macroeconomic reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates. These factors have sharply driven up the prices of imported raw materials and energy sources most of which are dollar denominated.

Despite these headwinds, Nigeria’s leading cement producers recorded robust topline growth. Dangote Cement Plc, Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest cement firm, posted a profit before tax of ₦732.54 billion for the 2024 financial year  a 32.4% increase over 2023. Its revenue surged by 62.2% year-on-year to ₦3.58 trillion, buoyed by strong domestic demand for cement and clinker.

However, the company’s cost of sales rose even faster, climbing by 63.3% from ₦1.01 trillion to ₦1.64 trillion representing nearly 46% of total revenue.

Industry analysts warn that unless macroeconomic stability is restored, rising input costs could erode future gains and place additional pressure on infrastructure development and housing delivery sectors heavily reliant on affordable cement.

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Similarly, the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) recorded an appreciation, with the Naira closing at N1,499.8 per dollar.

Data from FMDQ showed that the indicative exchange rate for the Naira fell to N1,499.8 per dollar from N1,501 per dollar recorded on Tuesday, marking a 20 kobo gain.

As a result, the gap between the parallel market rate and the NFEM rate widened to N9.8 per dollar, compared to the 50 kobo difference recorded the previous day.

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The report stated, “Macroeconomic pressure points such as rising inflation, high interest rates, and naira depreciation may drive an additional 13 million people below the national poverty line by 2025.”

PwC further noted, “The number of people living below the national poverty line is projected to increase by about 13 million by 2025,” attributing this rise to the country’s worsening inflation and high cost of living.

The report highlighted these economic headwinds as major contributors to the projected increase in poverty levels.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate stood at 34.80 per cent as of December 2024.

Also, the President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Chief Francis Meshioye, disclosed that the manufacturing sector faced severe challenges in 2024, driven by macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, soaring interest rates, and the depreciating naira.

On a positive note, however, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is projecting the economy to grow by 4.17 per cent this year, driven by ongoing reforms and stabilising inflation, Governor Olayemi Cardoso said yesterday.

Reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu in 2023, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and two devaluations of the naira, have contributed to rising inflation in Africa’s most populous country.

Cardoso stated at a conference that inflation, currently at 34.8 per cent, is expected to decline as the reforms begin to yield positive results. He also noted that foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise gradually, supported by increased oil production.

Oil output is forecast to reach 2.3 million barrels per day by mid-year, Cardoso revealed. According to him, Nigeria recorded foreign exchange inflows exceeding $6 billion in 2024, pushing foreign exchange reserves to over $40 billion.

Cardoso emphasised that the Central Bank’s priority remains maintaining price stability and strengthening market confidence. To achieve this, the bank plans to improve transparency and efficiency in the foreign exchange market.

“With limited opportunities for FX arbitrage, we anticipate greater interest in real sector development,” he added.

Similarly, Nigeria’s economy is projected to witness a decline in inflation and stabilisation of foreign exchange (FX) rates by 2025 as reforms in key economic sectors and policy adjustments take effect.

Experts shared this projection yesterday in Lagos during the Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2025 Budget and Economic Outlook, organised by PwC and BusinessDay Media.

The event, themed ‘Insights and Strategies for Navigating Nigeria’s Economic, Fiscal and Policy Landscape in 2025’, highlighted the country’s fiscal challenges and opportunities.

The experts noted that government revenue is expected to grow in 2025 due to ongoing reforms. However, achieving the ambitious revenue target of N36.35 trillion will require substantial effort .

The Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, emphasised that the high Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is contributing to inflation rather than reducing it. He explained that businesses are forced to secure financing for working capital at higher costs, thereby driving up prices.

Oyedele expressed optimism about inflation easing in 2025. He observed that while scepticism persists, the average inflation rate for 2024 stood at 33 per cent, and if conditions remain stable, the nominal inflation rate for 2025 is projected to drop to 25 per cent.

He also highlighted external factors that could impact Nigeria’s economy. According to Oyedele, President Donald Trump’s pledge to intensify oil and gas drilling may result in lower global oil prices. While this could alleviate price pressures, it presents a trade-off, as government revenue might decline due to reduced oil prices.

“The Central bank is going to introduce a code for FX by the end of the month which would improve the transparency issue. And once it’s addressed, the pressure on the FX has been taken off significantly.

“About $20 million every day is off the market. Some of the reforms we are doing from the fiscal side, it’s about $4 billion we are taking off the market as well. Nigerian businesses are being asked to pay levies, taxes, and regulatory fees in dollars. It’s about $4 billion. Once we pass our tax bills, that’s off the market. As we’re taking off those pressure from the market, we’re seeing improved liquidity coming in,” he said.

He said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is expected to contribute approximately $10 billion to the federation account this year, compared to less than $2 billion remitted last year.

He stressed the need for the industry to shift its focus from merely stabilising the naira exchange rate to fostering its recovery.

Oyedele expressed his belief that the current exchange rate does not reflect the naira’s true value, asserting that an exchange rate of N1,500 per dollar is not a fair valuation, as the naira remains undervalued.

The Chief Executive Officer of First Bank of Nigeria, Olusegun Alebiosu, highlighted the likelihood of a drop in food inflation within the year, attributing it to increased investments in agriculture expected in 2025.

Partner and Lead at PwC Strategy & Practice, West Market Area, Olusegun Zaccheaus, stated that factors such as improved revenue generation, debt sustainability, broad policy interventions, monetary policy alignment, fiscal strategy highlights, and addressing key issues for macroeconomic stability will shape Nigeria’s economy in 2025.

He noted that FX stability, price stability, and interest rates are critical monetary issues for 2025. According to him, easing volatility will depend on price discovery, transparency, market friction, liquidity, supply-demand backlogs, and market and investor confidence.

“Inflation may ease as supply-driven inflationary pressures subside and monetary policy tightening is sustained. However, the Nigerian government’s planned expenditure increase to N47.9 trillion in 2025, coupled with the introduction of a new minimum wage, is expected to drive inflation. As a result, the CBN is likely to maintain a tight monetary policy to manage these inflationary pressures,” he explained.

He further highlighted that the planned increase in telecom tariffs and rising electricity prices are expected to contribute to sector-specific inflation.

While improved price stability in petroleum products (PMS) could help mitigate some inflationary pressures, the overall impact on sectors such as telecommunications and energy may still result in higher consumer costs.

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