Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped to 18.02% in September 2025, marking a significant decline from 20.12% in August, according to the latest report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The data shows a 2.1 percentage point fall in headline inflation month-on-month, while annual inflation is down 14.68 percentage points from 32.70% recorded in September 2024. This drop reflects moderating price pressures amid improving macroeconomic indicators and a recalibrated base year.

Food inflation also showed notable relief. Month-on-month, the rate fell by 3.22 percentage points to -1.57% in September, with the year-on-year figure standing at 16.87%, a 20.9 percentage point decline from the same period in 2024. This improvement is attributed to falling prices of key staples such as maize, beans, potatoes, onions, tomatoes, and eggs.

On a month-on-month basis, overall inflation edged down slightly to 0.72% from 0.74% in August, suggesting a gradual slowdown in price increases.

The NBS further noted that the average annual rate of food inflation over the past 12 months stood at 24.06%, significantly lower than the 37.53% recorded in the preceding year.

Analysts say the decline is largely due to easing food prices and improved exchange rate stability. Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, had earlier forecasted a drop in the consumer price index (CPI), citing a strengthening naira and improved food supply chains.

He added that “further signs of cooling price pressures may pave the way for more rate cuts by the Central Bank of Nigeria in November to stimulate economic growth.”

The latest inflation figures may signal a shift in Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory, potentially providing room for more accommodative monetary policy as authorities seek to balance growth and stability.

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