Nigeria’s inflation rate has climbed again, signaling renewed pressure on households already grappling with rising living costs.

Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the country’s headline inflation increased to 15.38% in March 2026, up from 15.06% recorded in February.

This marks a 0.32 percentage point rise month-on-month and the first upward movement since March 2025, suggesting that the temporary relief Nigerians experienced earlier may be fading.

The report highlights a steady increase in the general price level, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 135.4 points, compared to 130.0 in February.

What’s Driving the Increase?

Food prices remain the biggest contributor to inflation, continuing to stretch household budgets across the country.

According to the NBS:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 5.55 percentage points
• Restaurants and accommodation added 3.26 points
• Transport costs accounted for 1.80 points

Staple foods such as yam, cassava, tomatoes, and potatoes recorded noticeable price increases, pushing food inflation higher.

On a monthly basis, food inflation rose sharply by 4.17%, reflecting how quickly prices are climbing within short periods.

Urban vs Rural Pressure

The inflation burden is not evenly distributed.

Urban inflation stood at 14.64% (year-on-year)

Rural inflation climbed higher to 17.22%

Even more concerning is the month-on-month spike in rural areas, which surged from 0.71% in February to 6.73% in March.

This sharp increase indicates that rural households are facing faster and more severe price shocks, especially for essential goods.

Core Inflation Signals Broader Pressure

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, also rose:

16.21% year-on-year

4.03% month-on-month

This suggests that inflation is no longer limited to food alone but is spreading across multiple sectors of the economy.

State-by-State Breakdown

Inflation trends vary significantly across Nigeria’s states:

Highest inflation rates:

Bayelsa – 27.37%

Sokoto – 26.03%

Bauchi – 23.67%

Lowest inflation rates:

Osun – 5.25%

Kano – 9.85%

Kaduna – 10.38%

On a monthly basis:

Zamfara recorded the highest increase at 10.77%

Bauchi followed with 9.37%

Sokoto posted 9.05%

Meanwhile, Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers saw slower increases, offering slight relief in those regions.

Average Inflation Still Rising

The 12-month average inflation rate paints a broader picture of sustained pressure.

It rose to 20.05% for the period ending March 2026, compared to 18.58% in the same period last year.

This indicates that inflation remains a long-term economic challenge, not just a short-term spike.

Global Risks Ahead

External factors could further worsen the situation.

The World Bank has warned that rising global oil prices may push inflation even higher.

According to its projection:

If oil prices hit $80 per barrel, inflation could rise by 3.1 percentage points

Additional indirect effects may come from higher transport and food costs

What This Means for Nigerians

The latest figures confirm a reality many Nigerians are already experiencing—the cost of living is rising again.

With food, transport, and housing costs increasing simultaneously, households face tighter budgets and reduced purchasing power.

For policymakers, the data signals an urgent need for targeted interventions, especially in food supply, logistics, and rural markets.

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Nigeria has recorded a significant decline in solar panel imports, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), highlighting a shift in the country’s renewable energy market and policy direction.

Data from the NBS shows that the value of imported solar panels — classified as photovoltaic modules — dropped sharply within a short period, reflecting changing dynamics in Nigeria’s energy sector. The decline comes amid growing government efforts to promote local production and reduce dependence on imported renewable energy components. 

Push for Local Manufacturing Drives Decline

Industry stakeholders attribute the drop to policy signals from the Federal Government aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing capacity. Authorities have increasingly emphasized localisation, with agencies such as the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) playing a central role in developing Nigeria’s solar production ecosystem.

Nigeria has already begun expanding its local solar panel manufacturing capacity, with multiple facilities across the country contributing to a growing renewable energy value chain. This marks a shift from previous years when the country relied heavily on imports to meet rising demand for off-grid electricity solutions. 

Energy Transition and Policy Direction

The development aligns with broader national strategies to reduce foreign exchange pressure, improve energy security, and support the transition to cleaner energy sources. Solar power remains a critical solution to Nigeria’s persistent electricity challenges, especially in rural and underserved communities.

Recent government initiatives, including investments in mini-grids and renewable infrastructure, signal a long-term commitment to scaling solar adoption while strengthening local industry participation. 

Balancing Local Growth and Energy Access

However, analysts warn that while restricting imports may boost local production, Nigeria must carefully manage the transition to avoid supply shortages or rising costs that could slow solar adoption.

With millions of Nigerians still lacking reliable electricity, experts say a balanced approach — combining local manufacturing incentives with sustained access to affordable solar technology — will be key to sustaining growth in the sector.

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Nigeria recorded a total capital importation of $6.44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a strong rebound in foreign investment inflows into the country.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the figure represents a 26.61 percent increase compared to $5.09 billion recorded in the same period of 2024.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, capital inflows also rose by 7.13 percent from $6.01 billion recorded in the third quarter of 2025.

Portfolio investments dominate inflows

The report indicates that portfolio investment remained the major driver of capital importation, accounting for $5.49 billion, which represents 85.14 percent of total inflows.

In contrast, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contributed $357.80 million, representing just 5.55 percent, while other investments accounted for $599.65 million or 9.31 percent.

Further breakdown shows that money market instruments attracted $3.08 billion, while bonds accounted for $1.97 billion, highlighting strong investor preference for short-term and fixed-income assets.

Weak long-term investment signals concern

Despite the overall growth in capital inflows, the relatively low contribution of FDI underscores continued weakness in long-term investments.

This suggests that while investor confidence in Nigeria’s financial markets is improving, concerns remain about risks in the real sector and broader economic stability.

Banking sector leads capital inflows

Sectoral analysis shows that the banking sector attracted the largest share of foreign capital, receiving $3.85 billion, which represents 59.75 percent of total inflows.

The financing sector followed with $1.94 billion (30.15 percent), while the production and manufacturing sector recorded $308.93 million, accounting for 4.79 percent.

Other sectors such as telecommunications, agriculture and oil and gas attracted relatively lower inflows, reflecting a concentration of investment in financial services.

UK tops source of investments

In terms of origin, the United Kingdom emerged as the largest source of capital inflow, contributing $3.73 billion or 57.94 percent of the total.

The United States followed with $837.91 million (13 percent), while South Africa accounted for $516.96 million (8.02 percent).

Other contributors included Belgium and Mauritius, reinforcing Nigeria’s reliance on established global financial hubs.

Top banks driving inflows

Among financial institutions, Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc led with $2.23 billion, accounting for 34.58 percent of total inflows.

It was followed by Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Ltd with $1.85 billion (28.75 percent) and CitiBank Nigeria Ltd with $840.72 million (13.05 percent).

Other banks such as Access Bank, Rand Merchant Bank and First City Monument Bank recorded moderate inflows during the period.

Implications for the economy

The latest figures point to improving investor sentiment, particularly in liquid financial instruments, amid ongoing monetary and fiscal reforms.

However, the dominance of portfolio investments over FDI highlights a structural challenge for policymakers—converting short-term capital inflows into long-term, productive investments.

Analysts say addressing this gap will be critical to driving sustainable economic growth, job creation and industrial expansion in Nigeria.

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Nigeria spent ₦7.65 trillion on food and beverage imports in 2025, highlighting the country’s increasing reliance on foreign food supplies amid declining domestic agricultural production.

The figures were revealed in the latest Foreign Trade Statistics report released by the (NBS).

Breakdown of Food Import Spending

According to the report, Nigeria imported both primary food products and processed food items used for industrial production and household consumption.

Primary food and beverage imports accounted for ₦3.49 trillion of the total expenditure. Out of this amount:

• ₦2.09 trillion was used mainly for industrial purposes
• ₦1.40 trillion went toward household consumption

However, processed food and beverage imports formed the largest share of the import bill, reaching ₦4.17 trillion in 2025.

Of the processed imports:

• ₦2.60 trillion was used by industries for food processing and manufacturing
• ₦1.57 trillion was consumed directly by households

The data suggests that a significant portion of Nigeria’s food imports is used as raw materials by domestic manufacturers, showing how heavily the country’s food processing sector depends on imported inputs.

Food Import Bill More Than Doubles

Nigeria’s food import spending has surged significantly over the past four years.

Data from the shows:

• 2022: ₦2.86 trillion
• 2023: ₦3.83 trillion
• 2024: ₦6.58 trillion
• 2025: ₦7.65 trillion

This means the country’s food import bill has more than doubled within four years, raising concerns about long-term food security and economic vulnerability to global supply disruptions.

Farmers Blame Structural Challenges

Agriculture stakeholders attribute the growing import dependence to several structural challenges affecting local farmers.

These include rising production costs, insecurity in farming communities, and significant post-harvest losses.

Many farmers in the North-Central and North-West regions have reportedly scaled down operations or abandoned farming due to these difficulties.

They are urging the and state governments to prioritise support for smallholder farmers in their 2026 budgets in order to boost local food production.

Food Security Concerns Rising

Meanwhile, the (FAO) has warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face severe food insecurity during the next lean season.

Despite the surge in imports, Nigeria still recorded a ₦1.71 trillion trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to earlier figures released by the , even as exports declined during the same period.

Experts say addressing infrastructure gaps, improving farm security, and increasing investment in agricultural value chains will be crucial for reducing Nigeria’s dependence on food imports.

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Despite a recent decline in food inflation across Nigeria, many residents of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) continue to struggle with low purchasing power, making it difficult to buy staple food items.

Residents who spoke with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) attributed the challenge to limited income.

“Although some food items have slightly reduced in price, the difference is not yet significant due to low earnings,” they said. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s annual food inflation rate dropped to 16.87 percent in September 2025, down from 21.87 percent in August, largely due to seasonal harvests of grains such as maize and millet.

At local markets, the reduction is evident: a bag of local rice dropped from N75,000 to N57,000, foreign rice from N90,000–N100,000 to N70,000, while a dustbin basket of pepper fell to N2,000–N2,300.

Despite this, many households reported that the lower prices have not translated into affordability. Civil servant John Okeke said, “If food prices have dropped, are they really affordable to the common man?

After paying rent, school fees, transport, and other expenses, little is left for household needs.”

Meanwhile, Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Aliyu Sabi, attributed the price decline to improved local production and government intervention programs, including the National Agricultural Growth Scheme (NAGS) Agro-Pocket Programme, which injected over 500,000 metric tonnes of wheat, maize, cassava, and other crops into the market.

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Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production rose to 1.68 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2025, the highest quarterly output recorded since 2022. This is according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which confirmed that the country met its production quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during the period.

The NBS also reported that the economy expanded by 4.23 percent year-on-year in real terms during the second quarter of 2025, marking an improvement over the 3.48 percent growth recorded in the same quarter of 2024. The figures reflect updated calculations following the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which now uses 2019 as the base year. Previous quarterly GDP estimates were aligned with the rebased annual data to ensure consistency with the new methodology.

Key sectors of the economy showed steady growth during the quarter. Agriculture grew by 2.82 percent, up from 2.60 percent in the second quarter of 2024. The industry sector expanded significantly by 7.45 percent, compared to 3.72 percent in the same period last year. Services recorded a 3.94 percent increase, slightly above the 3.83 percent posted in the second quarter of 2024. In terms of GDP contribution, the industry sector accounted for 17.31 percent of the total output, up from 16.79 percent in the same period last year.

In nominal terms, Nigeria’s aggregate GDP stood at ₦100.73 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, compared to ₦84.84 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2024 indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 19.23 percent.

The oil sector recorded strong performance, with real growth of 20.46 percent year-on-year in Q2 2025, a significant jump from the 10.08 percent recorded in the same quarter of 2024. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, where growth was just 1.87 percent, the sector saw an 18.59 percentage point increase. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector grew by 6.01 percent. Its contribution to total real GDP rose to 4.05 percent, up from 3.51 percent in Q2 2024 and 3.97 percent in the previous quarter.

The NBS attributed the improved oil output and sectoral performance to ongoing recovery efforts and enhanced operational efficiencies in the industry.

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