Petrol prices may soon decline to around N1,200 per litre as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot operators continue to reduce ex-depot rates following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices.

The development comes after the Dangote Refinery announced a N75 reduction in its petrol gantry price, lowering the rate from N1,250 per litre to N1,175 per litre.

According to industry data, the adjustment has prompted other depot owners to cut their prices to about N1,180 per litre, signaling a potential reduction in retail pump prices across the country.

In a circular issued to marketers, the refinery attributed the price cut to easing tensions in the Middle East, which had previously pushed energy prices higher.

“Following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has impacted energy prices, we wish to inform you that we have reviewed our premium motor spirit gantry/coastal price,” the refinery stated.

The company also reduced its coastal price per metric tonne from N1,595,790 to N1,495,215, with the new rates taking effect from June 16, 2026.

Despite the reduction at the depot level, many filling stations are still selling petrol at around N1,280 per litre, as marketers seek to clear existing stocks purchased at higher prices.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said consumers should expect pump prices to begin adjusting within days as new supplies enter the market.

According to him, petrol could sell for between N1,200 and N1,250 per litre in Lagos, while prices in other parts of the country may remain slightly higher due to transportation and logistics costs.

“This announcement is enabling people who have old stocks to clear out their stocks and prepare to take fresh supplies. By tomorrow and Friday, people will start adjusting to the new price,” he said.

Ukadike explained that marketers cannot immediately reduce prices without incurring losses on existing inventory purchased before the latest adjustment.

The latest reduction follows a significant decline in international crude oil prices after reports of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude reportedly fell from about $87 per barrel to below $80 per barrel after the agreement, easing pressure on fuel markets worldwide.

During the three-month geopolitical crisis, crude prices surged above $100 per barrel and, at some points, exceeded $120 per barrel, contributing to higher fuel prices in Nigeria.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), however, raised concerns that imported petroleum products appear cheaper than some locally refined products and called for increased competition in the downstream sector.

Meanwhile, industry observers believe further reductions may occur if crude oil prices continue their downward trend.

Some analysts have projected that petrol prices could fall below N1,000 per litre in the coming weeks if the ceasefire agreement remains effective and global oil markets remain stable.

A refinery official, however, noted that further reductions may take time because refiners are still processing crude oil purchased at previously higher prices.

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The Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC) has warned that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could rise to as high as N2,000 per litre if current economic pressures persist.

The union also proposed a new subsidy framework aimed at strengthening local refining capacity as a way to cushion Nigerians against rising fuel costs.

Rising Global Oil Pressures and Exchange Rate Impact

Speaking during a press briefing in Abuja on Thursday, TUC President Festus Osifo said Nigeria’s fuel pricing trajectory is being shaped by global and domestic economic shocks.

He explained that volatility in global crude oil markets, partly driven by geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, has disrupted supply expectations and pushed crude prices higher.

According to him, this has a direct effect on domestic fuel pricing, especially in a deregulated market environment.

Naira Depreciation Worsening Fuel Costs

Osifo also linked rising petrol prices to the continued depreciation of the naira, noting that exchange rate instability significantly increases the cost of imported energy inputs and transportation.

He warned that the combined effect of currency weakness and global oil price fluctuations is intensifying inflationary pressure and reducing the purchasing power of Nigerian workers.

Proposal for Local Refining-Backed Subsidy Model

To address the escalating cost burden, the TUC proposed a targeted subsidy mechanism focused on supporting domestic refining operations.

Osifo suggested that when global oil prices exceed the 2024 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, excess crude revenue should be redirected to stabilise local fuel supply.

He explained that about 60 percent of the windfall revenue typically shared among the federal, state, and local governments should instead be channelled into supporting domestic refineries.

This includes major facilities such as the Dangote Refinery as well as modular refineries operating across the country.

Aim to Stabilise Domestic Fuel Prices

According to the labour union, the proposed model is intended to reduce Nigeria’s exposure to global oil shocks while strengthening domestic energy production capacity.

By cushioning local refiners, the TUC believes Nigeria can achieve more stable fuel pricing and reduce the likelihood of sudden pump price increases.

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has confirmed that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, remains steady despite growing concerns about volatility in the domestic and regional fuel markets.

A source from the company told reporters that the gantry price is fixed at N1,200 per litre, while the coastal price stands at N1,153 per litre. The refinery emphasized that its pricing strategy aims to ensure consistent supply for Nigeria and the wider African market.

Responsive Pricing Amid Market Shocks

In March, the refinery reduced its ex-depot price by N100, lowering it from N1,175 to N1,075 per litre, with a corresponding reduction in diesel prices from N1,620 to N1,430 per litre. These adjustments reflected the refinery’s effort to respond to fluctuations in global oil markets, including disruptions caused by the ongoing Iran conflict.

Industry observers noted that Dangote Refinery’s improved domestic refining capacity has helped stabilize petrol prices, preventing a spike to N1,500 per litre that analysts had anticipated amid rising global crude prices, exchange rate pressures, and logistics costs.

Regional Demand and Export Strategy

The refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has become a key alternative fuel supply hub for African countries seeking to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern sources. Approximately 75% of its output is reserved for domestic consumption, with the remaining 25% available for export.

Officials also highlighted that the surge in regional inquiries reflects concerns over fuel availability rather than pricing, as governments prioritize energy security amid global uncertainties.

Outlook

Despite warnings from the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria that petrol prices could reach N2,000 per litre if international tensions persist, Dangote Refinery’s consistent output and pricing strategy offer a stabilizing effect on Nigeria’s fuel market.

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Petrol price hike fears are growing in Nigeria after crude oil surged to $114 per barrel. The sharp increase has raised concerns about further fuel price adjustments across the country.

Reports show that petrol currently sells between ₦1,200 and ₦1,400 per litre in several locations. This trend reflects the direct impact of global oil price movements on the domestic market.

Middle East Crisis Drives Oil Price Surge

The latest spike in crude prices follows escalating tensions in the Middle East. Attacks on key energy facilities have disrupted supply and pushed global oil prices higher.

As a result, Brent crude rose above $114 per barrel, marking one of its highest levels in recent years. The surge highlights the strong link between geopolitical events and energy prices.

Fuel Prices Already Rising Across Nigeria

Fuel prices in Nigeria have shown steady increases since the conflict began. Earlier in the year, petrol sold between ₦730 and ₦880 per litre. However, prices have now climbed significantly due to global pressures.

In addition, marketers have adjusted pump prices multiple times in response to rising costs. This has created uncertainty for consumers and businesses.

Dangote Refinery and Market Reactions

The Dangote Refinery has also adjusted its pricing structure. The refinery recently increased its ex-depot petrol price to about ₦1,175 per litre, citing global crude price trends.

Although local refining was expected to stabilise prices, global market conditions continue to influence domestic costs. Therefore, fuel prices remain sensitive to international developments.

Cooking Gas Prices Show Mixed Trends

While petrol prices rise, cooking gas prices remain relatively stable in some areas. In cities like Lagos and Abuja, rates have not changed significantly.

However, other regions such as the South-East and South-South have recorded higher prices. This variation shows uneven market responses across the country.

Global Uncertainty Raises More Concerns

The ongoing crisis continues to create uncertainty in global energy markets. Analysts warn that further escalation could push oil prices even higher.

As a result, Nigerians may face additional pressure on fuel costs in the coming weeks. The situation highlights the country’s vulnerability to global supply shocks.

Petrol price hike fears remain high as crude oil prices continue to rise. The current trend suggests that fuel costs may increase further if global tensions persist.

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In the July 2025 edition of the Lagos Business School Executive Breakfast Series, Rewane explained that Dangote Refinery’s decision to invest over ₦1.7 trillion annually in fuel logistics is a game-changing development. The distribution strategy includes 4,000 compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks to supply petrol and diesel directly to end-users.

Rewane noted that this approach will reduce pump prices, support small businesses, and ultimately curb inflation. As of May 2025, Nigeria’s headline inflation stood at 22.97 percent.

“With 4,000 CNG-powered trucks delivering fuel to the doorsteps of Nigerians, pump prices will drop, inflation will ease, and businesses will gain better access to energy,” Rewane stated in the FDC report.

Despite the positive economic outlook, the move has sparked concerns among fuel marketers and retailers. They argue that the direct-to-consumer model could lead to widespread job losses in the traditional fuel distribution chain.

Fuel prices in Nigeria have decreased over the past week. This trend is due to a global drop in crude oil prices and Dangote Refinery’s decision to reduce the ex-depot price of petrol from ₦880 to ₦840 per litre.

In response, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) also reduced prices at its Abuja stations, adjusting pump prices from ₦945 to ₦910 per litre.

Dangote Refinery’s fuel distribution plan may signal a turning point for Nigeria’s energy sector. By lowering logistics costs, supporting small businesses, and reducing fuel prices, the strategy could help stabilize inflation and improve access to energy across the country.

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The revised pricing, effective immediately, reduces petrol prices by ₦15 per litre. Depending on the region, the new price now ranges from ₦875 to ₦905 per litre. The announcement was made via the refinery’s official social media platform on Thursday.

Under the updated pricing structure, petrol will now sell for ₦875 in Lagos, ₦885 in the South-West, ₦895 in the North-West and North-Central, and ₦905 in both the North-East and South-South/South-East regions.

The adjustment affects several fuel distribution partners of the refinery, including major marketers such as MRS, Ardova, Heyden, Optima Energy, Techno Oil, and Hyde Energy.

The company attributed the reduction to the reintroduction of a customer refund policy and operational cost savings made possible by its naira-for-crude supply model. This deal, which allows for payment in local currency, has reportedly enabled Dangote Refinery to maintain competitive pricing despite global oil market volatility.

In a statement signed by the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Mr. Anthony Chiejina, the company reaffirmed its goal of providing price stability in Nigeria’s fuel market. He noted that the refinery is committed to supporting the country’s economy and easing the financial pressure on end-users.

“Our refined petrol and diesel products are designed for better engine performance and environmental friendliness,” the statement read. The company also urged Nigerians to purchase fuel only from its verified partner stations and report any price discrepancies via its official helplines.

The price cut comes amid renewed petrol importation by independent marketers, with over 496 million litres of fuel reportedly delivered to Nigerian ports between May 11 and May 20, 2025. Data sourced from the Tanker Position Report compiled by Blue Sea Maritime shows that more than 370,000 metric tonnes were discharged at key depots during this period.

Despite increased import activity, Dangote Refinery continues to anchor domestic fuel supply through its 650,000-barrel-per-day facility based in Lekki, Lagos. The company has reiterated its commitment to stable pricing as it expands its supply reach nationwide.

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The adjustment, which took effect earlier this week, reflects shifting dynamics in the international oil market, where prices are now trending downward due to increased supply and weakening demand projections.

Two outlets operated by A.Y.M Shafa along Airport Road led the drop, followed closely by Matrix Energy, which made similar adjustments. Other stations followed suit, with NIPCO cutting prices to N925 and Conoil selling at N935 per litre.

Industry observers link the decline to falling crude oil prices, which dipped below Nigeria’s fiscal benchmark of $75 per barrel on Monday. While Nigeria’s Bonny Light still traded at $78.62, other major crude grades like Qua Iboe and Brass River slipped to the mid-$60s—well below expectations for sustaining national revenue.

The implications are mixed. On one hand, lower crude prices could provide short-term relief for businesses and households grappling with high energy costs. On the other, analysts warn it could spell trouble for government finances.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” explained energy analyst Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of Petroleumprice. “Yes, inflation might ease, and petrol could even dip to N800 if the trend continues. But the budget risks unraveling if crude stays this low. We’re looking at a tough fiscal year if prices remain in the $60 range.”

He emphasized the potential domino effect on everything from public services to capital projects, given Nigeria’s heavy reliance on oil revenue.

Petroleum marketers have confirmed that pricing remains tightly tied to global crude benchmarks and currency exchange rates. Chinedu Ukadike, spokesperson for the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, reiterated that fuel prices in Nigeria fluctuate based on the international cost of crude and the strength of the naira.

He also noted a potential game-changer: the federal government’s move to supply crude to the Dangote Refinery in naira. “This could ease pricing pressures further,” Ukadike said. “Once it reflects at the loading depots, we expect lower prices to become more consistent at the retail end.”

Currently, the landing cost of imported petrol is down to N849.27 per litre—just shy of the N835 reportedly offered by Dangote’s facility. Industry sources say if this pricing stability holds, Nigerian consumers may finally begin to feel real relief from the weight of high fuel costs.

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According to a statement from the refinery, the price cut aims to provide relief to Nigerians ahead of the Ramadan season and supports President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic recovery efforts by easing financial pressures.

“This strategic price adjustment is designed to provide essential relief to Nigerians in anticipation of Ramadan while supporting the government’s economic recovery policy,” the statement read.

Second Price Reduction in February 2025

This marks the second reduction in February 2025, following an earlier N60 decrease. In December 2024, Dangote also slashed PMS prices by N70.50, bringing it down from N970 to N899.50 per litre.

Revised Petrol Prices at Partner Retail Outlets

Lagos (MRS Holdings stations): N860 per litre
South-West: N870 per litre
North: N880 per litre
South-South and South-East: N890 per litre
Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaffirmed its commitment to continually lowering fuel prices for the benefit of Nigerians.

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has increased the pump price of petrol to N990 per litre in the Federal Capital Territory, up from N965 per litre.

In Lagos, the price rose from N925 to N960 per litre, while some filling stations in Abuja showed varied adjustments, with some selling at N990 and others maintaining the previous rate of N965 per litre.

This price hike follows the commencement of loading operations at the Dangote Refinery, which has set its depot price at N955 per litre. Independent and major marketers have adjusted their rates, with some selling petrol above N1,000 per litre in various regions, including Akwa Ibom and Lagos.

The price adjustments are linked to rising global crude oil prices, with Brent crude trading at $79.98 per barrel before a slight rebound to $80.05. Experts attribute the increases to market forces under Nigeria’s deregulation policy.

Oil and gas analyst Olatide Jeremiah noted that “deregulation remains key to addressing fuel scarcity and price volatility,” predicting further adjustments as global energy trends evolve.

Consumers are now grappling with higher costs, with many stations across the country adjusting their pump prices to reflect these changes.

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… As some experts see unique opportunities for real estate investment

The Housing Development Advocacy Network (HDAN) has raised concerns over the recent hike in petrol prices, warning that the increase, coupled with high-interest rates and fluctuating exchange rates, will have severe repercussions on Nigeria’s real estate sector.

In a statement released by HDAN’s Executive Director, Festus Adebayo, in Abuja, the advocacy group highlighted the cascading effects these economic challenges will have on developers and the housing market as a whole.

Adebayo noted, “The recent hike in the price of premium motor spirit (PMS) from N568 per litre to N855 will only compound the already rising costs in Nigeria’s real estate sector. This will inevitably lead to higher property costs as developers are left with no choice but to pass on these increases to consumers.”

He further emphasized that the real estate sector, like many others, is feeling the strain of the current economic environment. “The instability in exchange rates, high-interest rates, and now the petrol price hike are creating an unsustainable situation for developers. This will also push up the costs of building materials, house purchases, and rents at a time when the disposable income of the average Nigerian is dwindling,” Adebayo stated.

READ ALSO: Small Businesses in Abuja Struggle as Fuel Prices Surge to N1,100 per Litre

The Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recently reviewed petrol prices upwards amidst ongoing fuel scarcity across the country. HDAN warns that this development will exacerbate the challenges already facing the real estate sector, which has been grappling with inflationary pressures and a sharp decline in the naira’s value. “As Nigerians allocate more of their income to transportation and energy costs, they will have less to spend on other essentials, including housing,” Adebayo explained. “This scenario is likely to further increase inflation, adding even more pressure on developers.”

Interestingly, while HDAN and other stakeholders lament the negative impacts of the fuel price hike, some experts argue that this situation could present unique opportunities for real estate investment.

As transportation and manufacturing industries slow down due to rising fuel costs, investors might increasingly turn to real estate, which is seen as a stable and relatively low-risk option. Higher transportation costs could also drive demand for properties located closer to city centers and commercial hubs, potentially boosting property values in these areas.

However, HDAN maintains that the immediate impact of the fuel price hike on the real estate sector will be largely negative. The organization urged the government to engage with stakeholders, including the Real Estate Developers Association of Nigeria (REDAN), to find solutions to the sector’s challenges.

READ ALSO: Revealed: New NNPCL fuel prices for Lagos, Abuja, others *Full list, State by State

While the petrol price hike presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s real estate sector, governments may introduce policies to promote economic stability, including incentives for real estate development. “Ultimately, the fuel price hike underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to address the challenges facing the real estate sector,” Adebayo concluded. “Collaboration between the government, developers, and other stakeholders will be crucial in navigating this difficult period and ensuring the sector’s long-term sustainability.”

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