Nigeria raw materials exports surged to N2.9 trillion in the first nine months of 2025, raising concerns over the effectiveness of the Federal Government’s drive to promote local processing and value addition.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that unprocessed raw materials exports rose by 147.4 per cent compared to N1.174 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
A breakdown of the NBS figures indicates sustained quarterly growth. In Q1 2025, exports stood at N1.045 trillion, compared to N439.8 billion in Q1 2024. Q2 2025 recorded N819.7 billion against N381.745 billion a year earlier, while Q3 2025 reached N1.04 trillion, significantly higher than N352.7 billion in Q3 2024.
The 2025 performance also represents a 442.8 per cent increase compared to N564.73 billion exported in the first nine months of 2023.
Major non-oil raw material exports include cocoa beans, raw cashew nuts, sesame seeds, raw lead ores, ginger, rubber, palm kernel oil, urea, and non-monetary gold in powder form. Key trading partners include India, Spain and the Netherlands.
FG’s Value Addition Drive
The sharp rise in raw exports contrasts with ongoing policy efforts to discourage the export of unprocessed commodities and encourage domestic beneficiation.
Recent initiatives include selective export restrictions in sectors such as shea nuts, incentive alignment policies by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and broader local content promotion strategies aimed at strengthening backward integration.
The most structured intervention is the proposed 30 per cent local value addition bill championed by the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC). The bill, currently before the National Assembly, seeks to mandate a minimum processing threshold before raw materials can be exported.
Director-General of RMRDC, Prof. Martin Muonso, explained that exporters who fail to meet the 30 per cent processing requirement could face a 15 per cent levy and possible suspension of their value addition certificate.
The legislation aligns with a 2009 ECOWAS directive encouraging value addition as a prerequisite for duty-free exports within the sub-region.
Former Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, Uche Nnaji, had earlier unveiled a 10-year roadmap targeting 60 per cent value addition by 2034, arguing that increased domestic processing would stimulate manufacturing, generate employment and strengthen the naira.
Similarly, current Minister Dr Kingsley Udeh described the bill as a potential turning point capable of halting the long-standing pattern of exporting cheap raw materials while importing finished goods at higher costs.
Stakeholders Divided
The Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, supported the proposed legislation, arguing that raw material exports contribute to job losses, limit technological advancement and weaken economic diversification.
MAN believes mandatory value addition would foster industrial growth and reduce dependence on imports.
However, the Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr Chinyere Almona, described the surge as a mixed development.
She noted that while the 147.4 per cent increase reflects strong foreign demand and short-term foreign exchange gains, the continued dominance of unprocessed exports highlights structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s industrial ecosystem.
According to her, exporting primary commodities deprives the country of higher earnings, employment opportunities and stronger value-chain linkages.
Almona warned that for backward integration policies to succeed, Nigeria must strengthen infrastructure, improve energy supply, expand access to affordable financing and enhance logistics efficiency.
Policy Alone Not Enough
Offering a dissenting view, Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), cautioned that compulsory processing mandates could disrupt commodity markets if domestic capacity is inadequate.
He argued that policy enforcement must be preceded by sufficient investment in competitive processing infrastructure. Otherwise, exporters may face bottlenecks, reduced competitiveness and unintended economic distortions.
Analysts agree that while Nigeria raw materials exports have boosted short-term trade earnings, the trend underscores persistent structural gaps in industrial development.
The debate now centres on whether the proposed 30 per cent value addition bill, combined with improved infrastructure and targeted incentives, can realign export performance with Nigeria’s broader industrialisation and backward integration objectives.
