In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could rise to approximately N950 per litre by 2026. This forecast comes amid the nation’s efforts to stabilize energy costs and boost domestic refining capacity.
Currently, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has set its ex-gantry price at N699 per litre, while MRS Oil, an authorized distributor, lists the retail price at N739 per litre. Despite this, the CBN’s forecast is based on assumptions including an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026, an exchange rate of N1,451.63/$ in Q4 2025, and N1,400/$ in 2026, all supported by improved foreign exchange market efficiency and stronger capital inflows.
The CBN’s report also assumes that domestic crude production will remain stable at 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the forecast period. With these conditions, the bank expects PMS prices to hover around N950 per litre by 2026, reflecting the impact of increased private sector investments in domestic refining and a surge in local crude production.
The report highlights that rising production, bolstered security around oil assets, and an expanding refining capacity are expected to alleviate supply constraints and contribute to energy cost containment. Additionally, the CBN anticipates headline inflation to ease to 12.94% in 2026, a significant drop from an estimated 21.26% in 2025. This moderation is largely linked to a reduction in food prices and lower PMS costs due to increasing competition in the midstream sector.
Notably, the Dangote Refinery’s move to slash its ex-gantry price from N828 to N699 per litre earlier in 2025 has already contributed to a reduction in petrol prices, with many retailers aligning to the new rate. However, Dangote Group has issued a cautionary note, warning that petrol prices could rise to as much as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria becomes overly reliant on fuel imports again.
The refinery’s leadership stated that the continued success of large-scale local production is crucial for maintaining stability in the downstream market, thereby reducing price volatility.
This development follows reports from Petroleumprice.ng, which noted that petrol prices had fluctuated across various locations, with some selling for over N900 per litre before the refinery’s price adjustments.
