The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will record its fastest pace of growth in more than a decade, revising its growth outlook upward to 4.4 per cent for both 2026 and 2027.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday. The new forecast represents an upward revision of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent growth rates earlier projected in June 2025.
According to the Bretton Woods institution, Nigeria’s economic growth strengthened to an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, driven largely by robust expansion in the services sector, particularly finance, information and communication technology, as well as a modest recovery in agriculture. The report also highlighted Nigeria’s transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products as a contributing factor.
“In Nigeria, growth edged up to 4.2 percent in 2025,” the World Bank said. “The increase was supported by strong services activity, especially in finance and ICT, a gradual rebound in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.”
The Bank noted that economic momentum is expected to strengthen further over the medium term, with growth forecast to reach 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027 — the fastest rate recorded in over ten years.
It explained that the improved outlook is anchored on continued expansion in the services sector, a stronger recovery in agricultural output, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.
“Economic reforms, including adjustments in the tax system and the continuation of prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity,” the report stated. “These measures should also help improve investor confidence and contribute to a further moderation in inflation.”
The World Bank added that higher crude oil output is expected to compensate for softer international oil prices, thereby supporting fiscal revenues and improving Nigeria’s external balance.
However, the Bank cautioned that sustaining the projected growth trajectory would depend on Nigeria’s ability to address deep-rooted structural challenges. While fiscal rules were introduced in 2007 to reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks, weak institutional capacity has often limited effective enforcement, resulting in inconsistent fiscal discipline over the years.
The report noted that ongoing reform efforts are aimed at resolving these structural constraints to ensure that growth remains durable and inclusive.
On the global outlook, the World Bank said the world economy has shown greater resilience than previously anticipated despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Global growth is projected to ease slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before picking up to 2.7 per cent in 2027, representing an upward revision from earlier estimates released in June.
“The global economy is proving more resilient than expected,” the Bank said, “with growth remaining broadly stable over the next two years despite persistent uncertainty in global trade and policy environments.”
