Nigeria’s economy is projected to record a stronger performance in the final quarter of 2025, with GDP growth forecast to rise to 4.22 per cent, according to new projections by investment firm CardinalStone.
The forecast, contained in the firm’s latest Macro Research note released on Tuesday, follows the publication of fresh GDP figures by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Q3 Growth Slows Slightly
Nigeria posted 3.98 per cent GDP growth in Q3 2025, marginally higher than the 3.86 per cent achieved in the same quarter of 2024, but a decline from the 4.23 per cent recorded in Q2 2025.
CardinalStone analysts said the marginal slowdown was expected, largely due to weaker oil production and the fading impact of earlier supportive base effects.
Economy Poised for Q4 Rebound
The firm noted that early indicators — including the November 2025 Purchasing Managers’ Index, which showed broad-based expansion — point to a stronger finish for the year.
“The recently released PMI numbers for November 2025 showed a strong and broad-based expansion in aggregate economic activities,” CardinalStone said. “We forecast Q4 2025 GDP at 4.22 per cent, translating to full-year 2025 growth of 3.92 per cent.”
Oil Output Softens
CardinalStone highlighted that crude oil production dropped to 1.64 million barrels per day in Q3 2025, down from 1.68 mb/d in Q2. The decline was attributed to planned maintenance at several upstream facilities and delays in activating operations at OMLs 71 and 72.
Non-Oil Sector Gains Momentum
Analysts pointed to notable improvements in the non-oil sector, driven by:
- Naira appreciation
- Moderating inflation
- Recovery in domestic consumption
- Stronger trade activity
Banks also benefitted from higher OMO rates, which averaged 28 per cent during the quarter, and increased fees and commissions.
However, ICT sector growth slowed as the Nigerian Communications Commission continued to deactivate unlinked SIM cards, while manufacturing remained constrained by high borrowing costs.
Industry Analysts Offer Similar Outlook
The projection from CardinalStone aligns with the expectations of Stanbic IBTC Bank’s Head of Equity Research for West Africa, Muyiwa Oni, who maintains a 4.0 per cent growth outlook for Nigeria in 2025.
Oni said improving infrastructure investment, easing trade bottlenecks, and the expanding influence of the Dangote refinery would stimulate growth across manufacturing and services.
He added that stabilising exchange rates and gradually declining interest rates could boost private sector investment in 2026.
‘Two-Speed Economy’ Emerging
Investment firm Comercio Partners described Nigeria as operating a “two-speed economy,” with the non-oil sector stabilising while the oil sector struggles with operational setbacks.
“Future GDP performance will depend on improvements in oil-sector operations, continued non-oil expansion, and the transmission of monetary policy into investment and consumption,” the analysts said.
More Institutions Project Strong Finish
Meristem Securities also expects stronger growth in the final quarter, projecting 4.08 per cent YoY for Q4 2025 and 3.88 per cent for the full year.
