Nigeria’s average daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, declined to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, according to the latest data released by the (NMDPRA).

The figure represents a drop from 60.2 million litres per day recorded in January, indicating a noticeable shift in the country’s fuel consumption pattern amid ongoing adjustments in the downstream petroleum sector.

Domestic refining begins to influence supply

In its monthly factsheet, the NMDPRA noted that the drop in consumption coincided with a significant change in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, largely influenced by the growing role of the .

For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported petrol due to the poor performance of state-owned refineries. Historically, local refining accounted for less than 20 percent of national petrol supply, leaving the country largely dependent on imports to meet domestic demand.

However, the regulatory authority said the increasing output from the Dangote Refinery is gradually altering this structure by strengthening domestic fuel supply and reducing reliance on imported products.

Petrol imports decline sharply

According to the NMDPRA report, petrol imports dropped significantly in February as domestic refining expanded.

The agency revealed that imports declined by about 25.4 million litres per day, reflecting a growing shift toward locally refined petroleum products.

Industry analysts say the development could signal the beginning of a long-term transition in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, as large-scale refining capacity continues to increase within the country.

Nigeria maintains strong fuel stock

Despite the reduction in petrol consumption, the regulatory authority noted that Nigeria maintained a petrol sufficiency stock of about 31 days in February 2026.

This level of stock coverage suggests improved energy security for the country, especially at a time when global fuel markets remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices.

Experts believe that stronger domestic refining capacity could help Nigeria better withstand international supply disruptions and reduce the economic risks associated with heavy fuel imports.

Experts highlight Dangote Refinery’s growing impact

Reacting to the development, the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Jeremiah Olajide, said the integration of Dangote Refinery’s output into national supply calculations demonstrates the refinery’s growing strategic importance.

According to him, the refinery is increasingly serving as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly as the country navigates unpredictable global energy markets.

He explained that the emergence of large-scale domestic refining capacity is gradually reshaping the structure of Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.

“The addition of Dangote’s inventory to national supply figures highlights the refinery’s role as a strategic buffer for the downstream sector,” Olajide said.

He added that expanding domestic refining would not only reduce import dependence but also strengthen the country’s ability to maintain stable petrol availability.

Dangote refinery cuts petrol and diesel prices

Meanwhile, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently announced a reduction in the prices of petrol and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel.

Under the revised pricing structure, the refinery reduced the gantry price of petrol from ₦1,175 per litre to ₦1,075 per litre, representing a ₦100 decrease.

The coastal distribution price of petrol was also lowered from ₦1,150 to ₦1,028 per litre, while diesel prices dropped from ₦1,620 to ₦1,430 per litre, marking a reduction of ₦190 per litre.

The refinery said the price adjustment was part of efforts to ease the financial burden on consumers and contribute to broader economic stability in Nigeria.

Pricing reflects global crude oil benchmarks

According to the company, crude oil processed at the refinery is purchased at international benchmark prices plus a premium ranging from $3 to $6 per barrel.

Payments for crude oil and other inputs are also made at prevailing foreign exchange market rates without subsidies.

The refinery added that crude supplied under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement is similarly priced using global benchmarks before being converted to naira based on the current exchange rate.

Dangote Refinery further stated that in 2025 alone it reduced petrol prices at least eight times, increasing prices only twice during the year.

The company described the pricing strategy as part of its commitment to ensuring that cost advantages from local refining are passed on to consumers across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Industry observers believe that as domestic refining capacity continues to expand, Nigeria could experience improved fuel price stability and reduced vulnerability to international supply disruptions.