The Nigerian naira recorded gains against the United States dollar on Wednesday, appreciating in both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets.

At the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the naira strengthened to N1,369 per dollar, improving from N1,376/$ recorded on Tuesday, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The development represents a N7 appreciation in the official exchange rate.

In the parallel market, the local currency also appreciated, trading at N1,385 per dollar, compared to N1,390/$ on Tuesday.

Despite the gains in both markets, the exchange rate gap between the official and parallel markets widened slightly to N16 per dollar, up from N14 recorded the previous day.

Meanwhile, trading activity at the official foreign exchange market declined significantly, with interbank turnover dropping by 66.5 per cent to N90.3 million, down from N269.9 million recorded on Tuesday.

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The naira recorded mixed performance across foreign exchange markets, appreciating slightly in the parallel market while weakening at the official window, according to latest market data.

In the parallel market, the local currency strengthened to N1,387 per dollar, improving from N1,389 recorded last Friday, indicating a marginal gain for the naira in informal trading.

However, at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, the naira depreciated to N1,349.7 per dollar, compared to N1,342.5 per dollar at the close of the previous week.

Figures released by the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the N7.2 decline reflects sustained pressure within the official segment despite ongoing liquidity management efforts.

As a result of the contrasting movements, the gap between the parallel and official exchange rates narrowed to N37.3 per dollar from N47.5 recorded last week, suggesting gradual convergence between both markets.

Meanwhile, activity in the official market dropped significantly, with interbank turnover declining to N18.77 million, representing an 84.9 per cent fall from N124.3 million recorded in the previous session.

Analysts say the reduced trading volume may indicate cautious participation among market players, even as the broader outlook points to ongoing adjustments driven by policy direction and global currency trends.

The latest figures highlight the continued volatility in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, as authorities intensify efforts to stabilise the naira and improve confidence in the system.

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The Trade Union Congress of Nigeria (TUC) has warned that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could rise to as high as N2,000 per litre if current economic pressures persist.

The union also proposed a new subsidy framework aimed at strengthening local refining capacity as a way to cushion Nigerians against rising fuel costs.

Rising Global Oil Pressures and Exchange Rate Impact

Speaking during a press briefing in Abuja on Thursday, TUC President Festus Osifo said Nigeria’s fuel pricing trajectory is being shaped by global and domestic economic shocks.

He explained that volatility in global crude oil markets, partly driven by geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, has disrupted supply expectations and pushed crude prices higher.

According to him, this has a direct effect on domestic fuel pricing, especially in a deregulated market environment.

Naira Depreciation Worsening Fuel Costs

Osifo also linked rising petrol prices to the continued depreciation of the naira, noting that exchange rate instability significantly increases the cost of imported energy inputs and transportation.

He warned that the combined effect of currency weakness and global oil price fluctuations is intensifying inflationary pressure and reducing the purchasing power of Nigerian workers.

Proposal for Local Refining-Backed Subsidy Model

To address the escalating cost burden, the TUC proposed a targeted subsidy mechanism focused on supporting domestic refining operations.

Osifo suggested that when global oil prices exceed the 2024 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, excess crude revenue should be redirected to stabilise local fuel supply.

He explained that about 60 percent of the windfall revenue typically shared among the federal, state, and local governments should instead be channelled into supporting domestic refineries.

This includes major facilities such as the Dangote Refinery as well as modular refineries operating across the country.

Aim to Stabilise Domestic Fuel Prices

According to the labour union, the proposed model is intended to reduce Nigeria’s exposure to global oil shocks while strengthening domestic energy production capacity.

By cushioning local refiners, the TUC believes Nigeria can achieve more stable fuel pricing and reduce the likelihood of sudden pump price increases.

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Africa’s richest industrialist, Aliko Dangote, has projected that the naira could strengthen to about N1,100 to the dollar before the end of the year if Nigeria accelerates efforts to curb imports and expand domestic production.

Dangote made the projection during the unveiling of the country’s new industrial policy, stressing that protecting local industries remains a critical gap in Nigeria’s industrialisation strategy.

He warned that heavy reliance on imported goods continues to weaken domestic manufacturers, urging the government to implement policies that prioritise local production and support indigenous businesses.

The industrialist also identified electricity supply as a major obstacle to growth in the manufacturing sector. He advised Vice President Kashim Shettima to convene a national forum to address the country’s persistent power challenges.

According to him, the unstable power situation is slowing industrial activity and limiting the expansion of factories nationwide.

Meanwhile, Shettima disclosed that the Federal Government received about ₦900 billion in taxes from Dangote Cement in 2025, expressing confidence that the new industrial policy would boost production and increase national revenue.

He noted that the company’s tax contribution demonstrates the potential of a strong industrial base to support government finances and reduce reliance on volatile revenue sources.

The Vice President added that the new policy aims to shift Nigeria from exporting raw materials to producing finished goods locally, a move expected to strengthen the manufacturing sector, create jobs, and retain more value within the economy.

He emphasised that the policy’s implementation framework sets it apart from previous initiatives, with a stronger focus on execution to deliver measurable results and long-term industrial growth.

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The Nigerian Naira maintained a stable but cautious position against the United States dollar during Tuesday morning trading on February 17, 2026, as currency markets opened the week on a relatively calm note.

After a weekend of steady consolidation, the local currency continued to trade around the ₦1,350 range at the official window, reflecting the impact of liquidity management efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Official Market Trends

At the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), the naira opened the session at about ₦1,351.18 per dollar. By mid-morning, the exchange rate recorded a slight adjustment, with the dollar trading at an average of ₦1,354.86.

The movement suggests a mild pullback from the early session level of ₦1,351, as market participants responded to early-week corporate demand.

Analysts say the naira has largely avoided the typical mid-month volatility, attributing the stability to the transparent price-matching system of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS). With the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) positioned to support domestic stability, the official exchange rate has remained below the ₦1,400 threshold for more than two weeks.

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President Bola Tinubu has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, assuring the World Bank that there will be no reversal despite the initial hardship faced by citizens.

Tinubu gave the assurance on Tuesday while receiving a World Bank delegation led by the Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde, at the State House in Abuja. He described the reform agenda as a necessary pathway to stabilising the economy and unlocking opportunities for Nigeria’s growing population.

According to the President, although the reforms were difficult at the onset, abandoning them would undermine long-term national development. He stressed that his government has chosen a firm path and remains focused on delivering sustainable economic growth.

Tinubu said Nigeria, as Africa’s largest economy, must take bold steps to reposition itself, particularly through reforms in agriculture, infrastructure, and fiscal management. He called on the World Bank to support efforts aimed at expanding mechanised farming, improving access to quality seedlings, and strengthening the availability of locally produced fertilisers.

The President explained that his administration’s reform choices included ending the fuel subsidy regime and unifying the foreign exchange market, decisions he acknowledged caused inflationary pressure in the short term. However, he maintained that the measures were essential to address longstanding structural distortions.

He noted that inflation has begun to ease and that the naira has shown increased stability, attributing the progress to consistent policy direction and improved transparency. Tinubu added that reforms would continue to prioritise accountability, reduced waste, and better use of public resources.

The President urged the World Bank to explore innovative financing models that would accelerate growth, reduce excessive intermediaries, manage investment risks, and build the skills of Nigerians, especially the youth population.

In her response, Bjerde commended Tinubu’s consistency and resolve in implementing reforms over the past two years, describing the outcomes as remarkable. She said Nigeria has become a reference point in global discussions with policymakers and investors due to the administration’s steady approach.

Bjerde noted that many countries often slow down or reverse reforms when challenges arise, but Nigeria’s leadership has remained firm, sending a strong signal to the international community. She added that the clarity of direction has boosted investor confidence.

She disclosed that the World Bank’s engagement with Nigeria is anchored on the country’s long-term development vision, including its ambition to grow the economy to $1 trillion and achieve a seven per cent growth rate.

Job creation, according to the World Bank official, remains central to the partnership, especially as Africa’s youthful population continues to expand. She highlighted that infrastructure development, agricultural modernisation, digital innovation, and access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises are key areas of focus.

Bjerde revealed that the World Bank’s public sector portfolio in Nigeria currently stands at about $17 billion, making the country one of its largest clients. She added that private sector operations through the International Finance Corporation have grown significantly, while risk guarantees provided by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency are expected to expand further.

She also disclosed plans for a new Development Policy Operation designed to support Nigeria’s budget and reform agenda, noting that the instrument aligns directly with the government’s policy direction.

The World Bank official praised Nigeria’s efforts in digital development and human capital investment, describing them as critical drivers of youth employment and long-term productivity. She said the institution remains committed to supporting reforms that promote inclusive growth and poverty reduction.

Tinubu, in closing, reiterated that his administration would continue to engage international partners while maintaining ownership of its reform agenda, stressing that Nigeria’s future prosperity depends on discipline, courage, and consistency.

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The Nigerian naira opened trading in February 2026 on a stronger footing, appreciating against the United States dollar at the official foreign exchange market amid signs of improved market alignment and sustained external buffers.

According to data published on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website, the naira closed at N1,384.5/$ on the first trading day of February, representing a modest but notable gain compared to its position at the end of January.

The appreciation reflects a gradual improvement in foreign exchange market conditions, as policymakers continue efforts to stabilise the currency and narrow the gap between the official and parallel market rates.

Market analysts note that while the movement is incremental, it signals growing confidence relative to the volatility recorded during the same period last year.

What the data shows

Data from the official foreign exchange window indicate that the naira strengthened from N1,391/$ recorded on the final trading day of January 2026 to N1,384.5/$ at the start of February.

On a year-on-year basis, the improvement is more pronounced. The naira traded around N1,500/$ at the official market on the first trading day of February 2025, highlighting a stronger opening position in 2026.

Nairametrics data further show that in early February 2025, the parallel market exchange rate weakened significantly, trading as high as N1,620/$, creating a wide gap of about N111 between the official and parallel markets.

By contrast, the parallel market opened February 2026 with the naira exchanging at approximately N1,453/$, narrowing the gap with the official rate to N62, compared with N68 recorded at the close of January.

This narrowing differential is widely viewed by market participants as a sign of relatively improved price discovery and reduced arbitrage opportunities within the foreign exchange market.

Signs of improved stability

Beyond the day-on-day movement, broader indicators suggest that the foreign exchange environment in early 2026 is more stable than the highly volatile conditions experienced in the first quarter of 2025.

Throughout February 2025, the naira consistently traded above the N1,500/$ mark at the official market, reflecting heightened pressure from demand imbalances, weak reserves at the time, and lingering confidence concerns.

In contrast, the February 2026 opening levels at both the official and parallel markets point to a comparatively firmer starting position for the local currency.

Analysts, however, caution that while the narrowing gap is encouraging, it does not eliminate underlying risks. Demand pressures, import dependency, and exposure to global financial shocks remain key factors that could influence near-term exchange rate movements.

Role of external reserves

Nigeria’s external reserves continue to play a critical role in supporting exchange rate stability and boosting confidence in the foreign exchange framework.
As of the period under review, the country’s external reserves stood at approximately $46.18 billion, providing the Central Bank with greater capacity to manage market fluctuations and intervene when necessary.

Housing TV recently reported that Nigeria’s external reserves crossed the $46 billion mark for the first time in nearly eight years, a milestone widely seen as strengthening the country’s FX buffers.

Stronger reserves enhance the CBN’s ability to smooth volatility, support liquidity, and reinforce confidence among investors and market participants.
They also contribute to sustaining improved alignment between the official and parallel markets, particularly during periods of elevated dollar demand.
Outlook

While the naira’s positive start to February 2026 offers cautious optimism, analysts stress that sustained stability will depend on a combination of consistent policy implementation, reserve management, and broader macroeconomic reforms.

Oil production levels, capital inflows, fiscal discipline, and global monetary conditions are expected to remain key drivers of currency performance in the months ahead.
For now, the naira’s early February appreciation suggests a relatively stronger footing compared with last year, even as market watchers remain alert to evolving risks.

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The Nigerian naira recorded a modest but steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar in the second trading week of 2026, closing at N1,424.5/$ on Friday. This reflects the improving fundamentals of the foreign exchange (FX) market and heightened confidence in Nigeria’s external position, according to trading data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Steady Market Dynamics

The naira strengthened compared to the previous week’s N1,431/$, indicating relative stability in the FX market. When compared to January 2025, when the currency stood at N1,544.5/$, this week’s performance marks a positive trend.

Throughout the week, there was limited volatility, with the naira quoted at N1,428/$ on Monday, N1,416/$ on Tuesday, and maintaining a range of N1,421/$ on Wednesday and Thursday before closing the week stronger. Analysts describe this as a mild, yet positive appreciation, signaling reduced pressure on the FX market as the year progresses.

Optimism in Nigeria’s External Position

A slight increase in Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves to $45.62 billion, up from $45.60 billion, provided support to the naira. The CBN’s positive outlook for 2026 projects external reserves could rise to $51.04 billion, backed by improved oil earnings, expected sovereign bond issuances, and increased remittances from Nigerians in the diaspora.

Experts also highlighted the potential benefits from Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity, which could reduce the need for imported petroleum products, thus easing pressure on foreign exchange.

A stronger naira aids in controlling imported inflation, bolstering investor confidence, and contributing to broader macroeconomic stability. Rising reserves give the CBN more leverage to manage FX volatility, while improved oil earnings and capital inflows fortify Nigeria’s balance of payments.

Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), remains optimistic about the naira’s outlook for 2026, citing strong external reserves and the potential benefits of continued FX market reforms.

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The naira weakened further against the United States dollar on Wednesday, reflecting continued pressure across both the official and parallel foreign exchange markets.

At the parallel market, the local currency depreciated to about ₦1,490 per dollar, compared with ₦1,470 recorded the previous day. The latest movement highlights sustained demand for foreign exchange amid limited dollar supply in the informal market.

The naira also recorded a mild decline at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), where it closed at ₦1,421 per dollar. This represents a ₦5 depreciation from the ₦1,416 exchange rate recorded on Tuesday, according to data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

As a result of the contrasting rates, the spread between the parallel market and the official window widened to ₦69 per dollar, up from ₦54 the previous day. Market watchers say the growing gap reflects persistent distortions in dollar supply and demand across the foreign exchange ecosystem.

Currency analysts note that the pressure on the naira is being driven by a combination of factors, including strong import demand, speculative activity, and cautious dollar inflows. While recent policy measures by the monetary authorities have helped improve transparency at the official window, challenges remain in stabilising the currency across all segments of the market.

The naira’s performance continues to be closely watched by businesses and investors, particularly as exchange rate movements have direct implications for inflation, import costs and overall economic confidence.

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The naira traded around ₦1,450 to the US dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) on Friday, November 21, 2025, while dealers in Lagos’ parallel market quoted the dollar between ₦1,460 (buy) and ₦1,474 (sell).

Quick Facts

Official NFEM rate: Approximately ₦1,450 per $1

Parallel market: Dealers buying at ₦1,460 and selling up to ₦1,474

What Happened Today

The NFEM — the Central Bank of Nigeria’s volume-weighted average rate based on formal transactions — stayed in the mid-₦1,400 range, according to market trackers.

Lagos parallel market dealers continued to offer higher prices, driven by strong demand from retail FX buyers, importers and Nigerians relying on informal channels for remittances.

Why the Gap Persists

Analysts attribute the persistent spread between the official rate and the parallel market to limited FX inflows into the formal window and sustained demand for dollars across import and personal transfer needs.
Recent CBN policies — including the rate cut announced in September 2025 and occasional market interventions — have helped reduce volatility but have not fully bridged the gap.

What It Means for Nigerians

Importers:
A higher parallel market rate increases the final cost of imported goods, especially when NFEM allocations are unavailable.

Consumers:
Rising import costs often push businesses to adjust their prices, adding pressure on household spending.

Remittances and Travel:
Individuals exchanging dollars informally receive slightly less naira per dollar than through official channels, raising the effective cost of FX.

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