This sharp rise, which pushed the farm produce price index from 110.5 in January to 142.53 in May, signals growing distress in the agricultural sector and worsening pressure on food affordability across the country.

While the price index crept up gradually in the first few months of the year, it spiked dramatically in May. January to February saw a mild 1.77% increase, followed by a 2.65% rise in March. April’s growth slowed to 0.88%. But in a sudden and alarming jump, May recorded a 22.28% increase, exposing the deep cracks in Nigeria’s food supply chain.

Analysts blame the crisis on widespread insecurity that has disrupted farming in many rural areas, especially in Benue State, the country’s main food-producing belt. Ongoing violence in these communities has made cultivation and distribution risky or impossible.

NBS figures reveal that food inflation in Benue had soared to 51.8% year-on-year by April 2025, while month-on-month food prices rose by 25.6%. Overall inflation in the state also jumped to 34.3% during the same period. By May, however, food inflation in Benue appeared to cool significantly, dropping to 22%. Still, month-on-month food prices edged up again by 4.1%, proving that the relief may be short-lived amid continued instability.

Despite the volatility in local farm produce, imported food prices have shown more stability. The Imported Food Price Index moved from 111.5 in January to 113.4 in February—a 1.3% increase. March saw a smaller rise of 0.44%, followed by a 1.23% increase in April. But by May, the trend reversed slightly as the index slipped to 113.7—a 1.39% drop.

Between January and March 2025, Nigerians spent ₦1.67 trillion on imported food and beverages, slightly higher than the ₦1.59 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024. The marginal increase of 5% shows that, in spite of the high cost of imports, many still rely on foreign food to bridge the gap created by domestic production shortfalls.

The latest figures paint a worrying picture for food security in Nigeria. As insecurity hampers farming and inflation tightens its grip, millions of Nigerians are feeling the pinch at the market facing higher prices for even the most basic staples.

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The farm produce price index, which stood at 110.5 in January, spiked to 142.53 by May, with the most significant jump—22.28%—recorded between April and May. This rapid escalation signals intensifying inflationary pressure, largely linked to worsening insecurity disrupting agricultural production, particularly in Nigeria’s food-producing regions.

The NBS noted that insecurity in states such as Benue, a key player in the nation’s food supply chain, continues to hinder farming activities. Despite a brief improvement in Benue’s food inflation figures—from 51.8% year-on-year in April to 22.0% in May—local prices remain volatile. The state still recorded a 4.1% monthly increase in food costs in May, alongside a 3.1% rise in general consumer prices.

Nationally, the gradual climb in farm produce prices was initially moderate:

January to February: up 1.77%

February to March: up 2.65%

March to April: up 0.88%

April to May: up 22.28%

This trend underscores the fragile state of domestic food supply, worsened by frequent attacks on farmers, displacement, and abandoned farmlands.

In contrast, imported food prices showed more stability. The Imported Food Price Index rose modestly from 111.5 in January to a peak of 115.3 in April before dropping slightly to 113.7 in May. Nigerians imported ₦1.67 trillion worth of food and beverages between January and March 2025—5% higher than the ₦1.59 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024.

While imported food prices remain relatively steady, the NBS data suggests Nigeria’s dependence on external supply chains may be cushioning domestic shortfalls—but not without cost implications.

Analysts warn that unless urgent action is taken to restore security in agricultural regions and strengthen domestic food production, food inflation could worsen, deepening hunger and economic hardship across the country.

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Economic pressures persist as Nigerians remain hopeful that inflation will ease in six months.

Nigeria’s inflation rate increased to 34.60% in November 2024, reflecting a 0.72% rise from October’s rate of 33.88%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

This marks a significant year-on-year surge, as the November 2024 rate is 6.40 percentage points higher than the 28.20% recorded in November 2023.

The NBS report highlights food inflation as the primary driver of this increase. Food prices soared to 39.93%, compared to 32.84% in November last year. Staples such as yam, rice, maize, palm oil, fish, and dairy products saw sharp price hikes, further straining Nigerian households.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation recorded a marginal slowdown, standing at 2.638% in November compared to 2.640% in October. However, food inflation rose to 2.98% month-on-month, driven by persistent price increases in meat, fish, and rice.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 28.75%, up from 22.38% in November 2023. Rising costs in transportation, housing, and personal services contributed to this increase. 

Taxi fares, rents, and personal grooming services recorded the highest price surges.

Bauchi (46.21%), Kebbi (42.41%), and Anambra (40.48%) recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rates, while Delta (27.47%) and Benue (28.42%) reported the lowest. Similarly, Sokoto, Yobe, and Edo led year-on-year food inflation with rates of 51.30%, 49.69%, and 47.77%, respectively.

Despite the persistent inflationary pressures, optimism remains. According to the Inflation Expectations Survey Report by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigerians expect inflation to decelerate in the next six months. Though high, businesses and households surveyed expressed confidence that current rates could ease with improved monetary measures.

Economic analysts have also projected a slight decline in December. Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited anticipates inflation could drop by 2% to settle at 34%, citing monetary tightening policies attracting investors to fixed-income markets.

Meanwhile, the CBN maintains its inflation target of 21.4%, a far stretch from the current rate. At its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the apex bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 27.50% to curb inflation.Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 34.6% in November as Food Prices Surge

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