Sudan recorded the highest inflation rate among the African countries reviewed in July 2026, with annual consumer price growth reaching 41.61%, while Nigeria ranked third at 15.43%, according to the latest available consumer price index data.

The figures, drawn from national statistical agencies and central banks, cover the most recent readings available between June and July 2026. South Sudan was excluded because its latest reported inflation figure dates back to May 2025.

Sudan’s 41.61% inflation rate was significantly above the rest of the countries in the ranking. However, the figure represented a sharp decline from 51.28% in June, a reduction of 9.67 percentage points.

Despite the annual slowdown, consumer prices in Sudan continued to rise during July. The country’s general Consumer Price Index increased 1.47% month-on-month, while urban inflation stood at 45.24% and rural inflation at 39.85%.

Malawi ranked second, with inflation easing to 20.80% in July from 21.10% in June. The decline was mainly linked to lower food-price pressures, with food inflation falling to 14.3% from 14.7%.

Non-food inflation in Malawi, however, moved higher to 32.2%, largely because of increases in charcoal and firewood prices. The figures highlight the continued influence of food and energy costs on household purchasing power across African economies.

Nigeria came third at 15.43%, down from 15.91% in June. While the headline rate continued to moderate, food inflation moved in the opposite direction, rising to 20.31% year-on-year.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported a sharp increase in Nigeria’s monthly food inflation rate, which rose to 5.56% from 3.75% in June. Higher average prices for rice, water yam, plantain, fresh pepper, onions, tomatoes, garri, beef and eggs contributed to the increase.

Ethiopia ranked fourth, recording 15.30% inflation in July, compared with 13.90% in June. Food inflation rose to 15.7%, while non-food inflation increased to 14.8%. Monthly consumer prices also rose 2.6%, the strongest monthly increase since March 2025.

Sierra Leone followed at 14.77% in June, up from 12.69% in May. The increase was driven largely by non-food inflation, which reached 21.03%. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels recorded an annual increase of 81.33%, while transport prices rose 40.23%.

Rwanda recorded 14.50% inflation in July, up from 13.60% a month earlier. Transport prices increased 24.2% year-on-year, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 21.0%.

Egypt ranked seventh with 13.00% inflation in July, compared with 12.20% in June. Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel recorded a 31.1% annual increase, while transport and education costs rose 21.1% and 20%, respectively.

Libya recorded 12.70% inflation in June, down from 14.00% in May. Food inflation also eased substantially, falling to 13.90% from 17.60%.

São Tomé and Príncipe posted 9.70% inflation in June, up from 9.20%, while Botswana completed the ranking at 9.40%. Botswana’s decline was linked partly to lower domestic fuel prices introduced on July 7.

The inflation trends have implications beyond household consumption. Higher prices for building materials, transport, energy and other inputs can increase construction costs, put pressure on property development budgets and affect the affordability of housing and infrastructure projects.

For Nigeria, the combination of easing headline inflation and rising food inflation remains particularly important for the housing sector. Developers, contractors, homebuyers and mortgage borrowers continue to operate in an environment where the cost of essential goods and services can influence construction budgets, household disposable income and the ability to finance housing.

Across the 10 countries, five recorded higher inflation while five saw their rates decline. The contrasting movements underline the different pressures facing African economies, with food, energy, transport and broader consumer costs remaining important drivers of inflation.

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Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is expected to continue easing in the coming months, although rising food prices remain a major source of pressure, according to analysts at Comercio Partners.

The outlook followed the latest inflation figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, which showed that headline inflation declined to 15.43 per cent year-on-year in July 2026, compared with 15.91 per cent in June.

The July figure represented the second straight monthly decline in headline inflation and the largest monthly moderation recorded so far this year. Analysts said the trend suggests that underlying price pressures across parts of the economy are beginning to weaken.

A key factor behind the improvement was the sharp decline in core inflation, which excludes some volatile items. Core inflation fell to 14.97 per cent in July, from 15.92 per cent in June, while the month-on-month rate dropped substantially to 0.15 per cent, compared with 1.66 per cent in the previous month.

Comercio Partners said the movement indicated weaker underlying inflationary pressure, supported in part by reduced exchange-rate volatility. The development could provide some relief for businesses and households facing higher costs, particularly in sectors that depend heavily on imported inputs.

Food prices, however, moved in the opposite direction. Food inflation increased to 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July, up from 17.52 per cent in June. On a monthly basis, food inflation also accelerated to 5.56 per cent, compared with 3.75 per cent in June.

The analysts linked the increase to constraints affecting agricultural supply, higher logistics and distribution expenses, seasonal influences and wider structural challenges within the food supply chain. They said these pressures are not issues that monetary policy can address on its own.

The divergence between food and core inflation is particularly relevant to household spending. Food represents a substantial portion of expenditure for many Nigerian households, making increases in food prices an important factor in the cost of living even when the overall inflation rate is declining.

Despite the increase in food inflation, several major expenditure categories recorded lower contributions to headline inflation during July. The contribution of food and non-alcoholic beverages declined from 6.37 percentage points in June to 6.18 percentage points in July.

Restaurants and accommodation also recorded a lower contribution, falling from 2.06 percentage points to 1.99 percentage points. Transport declined from 1.70 percentage points to 1.64 percentage points, while housing, utilities and fuels fell from 1.34 percentage points to 1.30 percentage points.

According to Comercio Partners, the combined decline in contributions from these four expenditure divisions represented about 75 per cent of the 0.48 percentage-point reduction in headline inflation recorded between June and July.

The figures also have implications for Nigeria’s housing and construction sectors. Housing-related costs are influenced by inflation through the prices of building materials, transportation, energy and other inputs, while higher living costs can affect households’ ability to save for home purchases, meet rent obligations and service mortgages.

For developers and construction companies, a sustained moderation in underlying inflation could improve cost forecasting and financial planning. However, continued food-price increases could keep pressure on household budgets and limit the amount of income available for housing and other long-term spending.

The July data therefore presents a mixed picture for the wider economy. While easing core inflation and reduced exchange-rate volatility point to moderating price pressures, persistent food inflation remains a significant challenge for households and businesses.

For the housing and infrastructure sectors, the direction of inflation will remain important because changes in prices affect construction costs, household purchasing power, project financing and the broader affordability of housing.

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Nigeria’s inflation picture is showing mixed signals as headline inflation continues to slow while food prices rise at a much faster rate.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a 50-basis-point decline in headline inflation to 15.43 per cent in July. At the same time, food inflation climbed from 17.52 per cent to 20.31 per cent.

The latest figures suggest that the easing in overall inflation has not yet translated into lower food costs for households. Food remains one of the largest expenses for many families, making the increase a major concern for household purchasing power.

Building Material Prices Surge as Inflation, FX Crisis Push Construction Costs Higher

Food inflation records sharp monthly increase

Food inflation also recorded a significant month-on-month increase in July.

The rate reached 5.56 per cent, compared with 3.75 per cent in June and 2.98 per cent in May. This marked the strongest monthly increase since the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index.

The year-on-year trend has also moved higher for six consecutive months. Food inflation started the year at 8.9 per cent but has since more than doubled.

The latest increase adds to concerns that food prices could remain a major source of pressure even as other parts of the inflation basket begin to stabilise.

Core inflation offers some relief

Core inflation provided a different picture in July.

The measure fell to 14.97 per cent, its lowest level since January 2025. The decline could support the Central Bank of Nigeria’s assessment that underlying price pressures are gradually becoming more stable.

The Monetary Policy Committee has maintained the Monetary Policy Rate between 26.5 and 27.5 per cent over the past year.

Money balances increased from N117.24 trillion to N133.25 trillion by June, representing year-on-year growth of 13.7 per cent. Private-sector credit also rose from N76.13 trillion to N83.26 trillion during the period.

The August inflation report will provide the MPC with newer data before its September meeting.

Transport costs add to food prices

High transport and energy costs remain important factors behind the food price increase.

Diesel prices have almost doubled since the end of February, according to the report. Diesel is widely used by logistics operators, making changes in its price important for the cost of moving agricultural goods.

Petrol prices have also increased by about 50 per cent since early March. Higher fuel costs can raise the cost of transporting food from farms to wholesale markets and then to consumers.

Insecurity in major food-producing areas has also created supply challenges. Economists, including Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise Chief Executive Dr Muda Yusuf, have identified insecurity and logistics problems as structural issues affecting food prices.

Heavy rainfall may have added further pressure by making road transport and food distribution more difficult.

State inflation rates show wide gaps

The national inflation figure also hides major differences between states.

Adamawa recorded the highest headline inflation rate in July at 33.03 per cent. Yobe followed with 25.2 per cent, while Anambra recorded 24 per cent.

Nasarawa had the lowest headline inflation rate at 7.9 per cent. Kebbi and Borno followed with 9.1 per cent each.

Food inflation was particularly high in Adamawa, where it reached 51.4 per cent. Katsina recorded 30.8 per cent, while Zamfara posted 30.7 per cent.

The NBS has warned that state-level inflation figures should not be compared directly because household spending patterns vary across locations.

Housing costs face indirect pressure

The continuing rise in food prices also has wider implications for Nigeria’s housing sector.

When families spend more on food and transport, they have less money available for rent, mortgage payments, savings and home purchases. This can make housing affordability more difficult, especially for low- and middle-income households.

Developers also face higher operating costs when fuel, transport and other inputs become more expensive. These costs can affect construction budgets and, ultimately, the prices of new homes.

The July inflation figures therefore present a mixed outlook. While lower headline and core inflation point to improving price stability, rising food costs show that many Nigerians continue to face strong pressure on their household budgets.

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Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue increased to N2.42 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 9.98 per cent rise from the N2.20 trillion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This is according to the latest VAT Q1 2026 report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The report showed that local VAT payments accounted for N1.11 trillion of the total collections, while foreign VAT contributed N830.47 billion and import VAT generated N477.55 billion during the period.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, activities of households as employers and undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities for own use recorded the highest growth rate at 74.36 per cent. This was followed by arts, entertainment and recreation, which grew by 20.91 per cent, and manufacturing, which expanded by 12.82 per cent.

However, the education sector posted the sharpest decline, falling by 31.96 per cent. Public administration and defence, including compulsory social security activities, declined by 31.38 per cent, while activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies dropped by 29.89 per cent.

In terms of sectoral contributions, manufacturing remained the largest contributor to VAT revenue, accounting for 29.75 per cent of total collections during the quarter.

The information and communication sector followed with a contribution of 20.61 per cent, while mining and quarrying contributed 12.32 per cent.

Conversely, activities of households as employers and undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities for own use recorded the lowest share at 0.01 per cent. Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies contributed 0.02 per cent, while water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities accounted for 0.06 per cent.

On a year-on-year basis, VAT collections rose by 17.06 per cent compared to the corresponding period in 2025, highlighting continued growth in government tax revenue despite varying performances across economic sectors.

The latest figures underscore the growing role of manufacturing, telecommunications and extractive industries in driving Nigeria’s non-oil tax revenue as authorities continue efforts to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation.

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Despite posting strong turnover in 2025, Nigeria’s real estate and construction sectors recorded limited real expansion, highlighting a widening gap between nominal growth and actual productivity.

Stakeholders, however, remain optimistic, pointing to rising infrastructure demand, rapid urbanisation, and steady private sector investment as key drivers of future growth.

Construction and Real Estate Hit Strong Nominal Growth

Nigeria’s construction and real estate sectors recorded significant nominal growth in 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

• Construction sector: N19.36 trillion, up from N16.29 trillion in 2024 (18.8% increase)
• Real estate sector: N58.16 trillion, up from N41.27 trillion in 2024 (40.93% increase)

Combined, the two sectors contributed N77.52 trillion in nominal output for 2025.

However, analysts warn that this growth is heavily influenced by inflation and rising project costs rather than a proportional increase in real economic output.

Real Growth Tells a Different Story

While nominal figures rose sharply, real GDP performance shows a more moderate picture.

• Construction real GDP growth: 5.53% in 2025, up from 4.16% in 2024
• Real estate real GDP growth: 3.78% in 2025, down from 6.59% in 2024

This divergence suggests that while more money is flowing into the sectors, actual output—such as completed housing units and infrastructure delivery—is not increasing at the same pace.

Quarterly data further reflects uneven performance:

• Construction peaked in Q4 2025 at N5.52tn
• Real estate peaked in Q3 2025 at N18.24tn

Inflation and Cost Pressures Driving Nominal Growth

Stakeholders say rising costs are inflating sector figures without delivering equivalent physical expansion.

Soji Adeniji, Chairman of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) Construction and Engineering Group, said growth is being driven by infrastructure demand and urban expansion.

He noted that inflation and foreign exchange pressures are significantly increasing project costs.

“In simple terms, projects are costing more, and that is reflecting in the sector’s GDP contribution,” he said.

Housing Demand and Population Growth Fuel Real Estate

In the real estate sector, Dr Michael Oladiji, Chairman of the LCCI Real Estate Group, linked turnover growth to Nigeria’s rising population and housing demand.

“Housing is a basic need. As the population increases, demand for housing rises,” he said.

He also highlighted the role of diaspora remittances in financing property development across the country.

However, he acknowledged that rising costs and inefficiencies are limiting the sector’s ability to translate investment into actual housing delivery.

Private Investment and Urbanisation Remain Key Drivers

Urban expansion in major cities such as Lagos continues to fuel demand for both residential and commercial developments.

Adeniji noted that private investors increasingly view real estate as a hedge against inflation, while informal housing development also contributes to sector activity.

He added that despite economic challenges, operators have remained resilient in delivering projects across the country.

Financing Constraints and Structural Challenges

Stakeholders warn that limited access to affordable financing remains a major barrier to sustained growth.

Adeniji stressed that cost stability and long-term funding are essential for infrastructure and housing delivery.

Without these, the sector risks continued reliance on nominal expansion rather than real output growth.

Technology and ESG Becoming Critical

Industry experts say the future of the sector will depend on improved efficiency and technology adoption.

Oladiji highlighted the growing use of smart buildings, digital property platforms, and virtual tools to improve sales and construction efficiency.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards are also becoming more important in attracting funding.

Adeniji said ESG compliance is now “a core requirement for sustainable growth in the construction sector.”

Outlook: From Volume to Value

Despite strong figures, stakeholders agree that Nigeria’s construction and real estate sectors must shift from volume-based growth to value-driven delivery.

Adeniji concluded that future success will depend not just on how much is built, but how efficiently and sustainably it is delivered.

As Nigeria continues to face a major housing deficit, the challenge remains turning rising investment into tangible, affordable housing and infrastructure for a growing population.

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Nigeria’s manufacturing sector recorded a sharp rise in Value Added Tax (VAT) contributions in 2025, generating N875.4 billion in the first nine months of the year, according to new data.

The figures, released by the , show that VAT remittances from manufacturers increased by 54.7 per cent year-on-year compared to the N566.0 billion recorded during the same period in 2024.

The amount generated between January and September 2025 has already exceeded the N578.4 billion VAT contribution recorded by the sector in the entire 2023 fiscal year.

Manufacturing leads VAT contributions

A sectoral breakdown of the Q3 2025 VAT report shows that manufacturing remained the largest contributor to VAT collections in Nigeria.

The sector accounted for 25.89 per cent of total VAT revenue in the third quarter of 2025, ahead of:

• Information and communication – 18.77%
• Mining and quarrying – 14.85%

Manufacturing also ranked first in earlier quarters, contributing 26.03 per cent in Q1 2025 and 27.19 per cent in Q2 2025, highlighting its growing importance to Nigeria’s tax revenue.

Higher prices driving VAT growth

Industry analysts say the rise in VAT remittances reflects higher product prices, rising production costs and the impact of currency depreciation.

These factors have increased the taxable value of manufactured goods across the supply chain, resulting in higher nominal VAT collections.

Despite operating under difficult economic conditions — including energy shortages, foreign exchange volatility and weak consumer demand — the manufacturing sector continues to play a crucial role in Nigeria’s non-oil revenue generation.

Government reliance on non-oil taxes

Economists say the surge in VAT collections highlights the growing fiscal importance of the manufacturing sector as the Federal Government seeks to diversify revenue sources away from oil.

However, industry stakeholders warn that higher VAT remittances may not necessarily indicate stronger industrial output.

They argue that inflation and exchange-rate effects may have significantly inflated tax collections without a corresponding rise in real production.

Manufacturers raise concerns

The has expressed concern over the growing tax burden on manufacturers.

Director-General warned that rising VAT and multiple taxes could weaken the competitiveness of Nigerian manufacturers.

According to him, higher taxes increase production costs and could force companies to transfer the burden to consumers.

“The high VAT rate, alongside other taxes and levies, makes Nigerian products less competitive both locally and internationally,” Ajayi-Kadir said.

He also cautioned that further increases in VAT could reduce consumer demand, increase unsold inventory, and potentially threaten jobs within the sector.

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has welcomed the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 4.07 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In a statement signed by Assistant Director, Information and Public Relations, Mrs Uloma Amadi, Edun described the development as evidence of broad-based economic expansion and strengthening macroeconomic stability under the leadership of Bola Tinubu.

“This marks the second time in a decade—excluding the immediate post-pandemic rebound—that quarterly growth has exceeded 4 per cent. It follows the 4.23 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2025 and represents a clear improvement from 3.76 per cent in Q3 2024,” the Minister stated.

Sectoral Performance Drives Expansion

According to the Minister, growth in the fourth quarter was supported by all three major sectors of the economy—agriculture, industry, and services.

Agriculture expanded by 4.0 per cent, up from 2.54 per cent in Q4 2024, supported by improved security in food-producing areas and better access to inputs.

Industry grew by 3.88 per cent, compared to 2.49 per cent in the corresponding period of 2024, driven by improved foreign exchange liquidity, energy sector reforms, and stronger investor confidence.

The services sector recorded 4.15 per cent growth, reflecting continued expansion in finance, telecommunications, trade, and technology-driven activities. The sector retained its position as the largest contributor to overall output.

Edun noted that approximately 30 subsectors recorded growth above 3 per cent, underscoring the breadth and diversification of the current expansion.

Full-Year Growth and Economic Size

For the full year 2025, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.87 per cent, up from 3.38 per cent in 2024. The size of the economy increased to ₦441.5 trillion, compared with ₦372.8 trillion in the previous year.

The Minister attributed the improved performance to enhanced fiscal coordination, disciplined expenditure management, stronger revenue mobilisation, and continued structural reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic credibility.

He said the latest data reinforces confidence among domestic and international investors and signals that Nigeria’s reform programme is gaining traction.

“The Ministry of Finance remains committed to sustained reform implementation, institutional coordination, and transparent engagement with stakeholders,” Edun added.

The GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday confirmed that the expansion was supported by growth across agriculture, industry, and services, with services maintaining its lead as the dominant sector in the economy.

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Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped to 18.02% in September 2025, marking a significant decline from 20.12% in August, according to the latest report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The data shows a 2.1 percentage point fall in headline inflation month-on-month, while annual inflation is down 14.68 percentage points from 32.70% recorded in September 2024. This drop reflects moderating price pressures amid improving macroeconomic indicators and a recalibrated base year.

Food inflation also showed notable relief. Month-on-month, the rate fell by 3.22 percentage points to -1.57% in September, with the year-on-year figure standing at 16.87%, a 20.9 percentage point decline from the same period in 2024. This improvement is attributed to falling prices of key staples such as maize, beans, potatoes, onions, tomatoes, and eggs.

On a month-on-month basis, overall inflation edged down slightly to 0.72% from 0.74% in August, suggesting a gradual slowdown in price increases.

The NBS further noted that the average annual rate of food inflation over the past 12 months stood at 24.06%, significantly lower than the 37.53% recorded in the preceding year.

Analysts say the decline is largely due to easing food prices and improved exchange rate stability. Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, had earlier forecasted a drop in the consumer price index (CPI), citing a strengthening naira and improved food supply chains.

He added that “further signs of cooling price pressures may pave the way for more rate cuts by the Central Bank of Nigeria in November to stimulate economic growth.”

The latest inflation figures may signal a shift in Nigeria’s macroeconomic trajectory, potentially providing room for more accommodative monetary policy as authorities seek to balance growth and stability.

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