Lagos requires about ₦6 trillion in annual housing investment to address its growing housing shortage, with the state’s deficit estimated at 3.4 million units, according to research presented by GTI Capital Research.

The findings were presented by Prof. Timothy G. Nubi, Founding Director of the University of Lagos Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development, at a housing and capital forum in Lagos. The research estimates that the state needs to deliver about 227,576 additional homes each year to meet population growth, migration and rising housing demand.

Lagos’ housing deficit has increased from an estimated 2.95 million units in 2016 to 3.4 million units in 2025, representing a 15 per cent rise over the period.

The research links the growing shortage to the difficulty of providing housing at prices that households can afford. Despite Lagos’ role as Nigeria’s major commercial centre, housing supply has not expanded sufficiently to match demand, contributing to higher rents and property prices.

₦6tn Financing Gap

GTI Capital Research estimates that Lagos faces an annual housing capital gap of roughly ₦6 trillion. The figure represents the estimated funding required to provide the housing supply that formal development does not currently deliver each year.

The research noted that the annual gap is nearly three times Lagos State’s 2026 capital expenditure budget of ₦2.337 trillion, highlighting the scale of the challenge for government.

The figures suggest that public spending alone is unlikely to provide enough capital to close the housing deficit. Greater participation from private developers, mortgage lenders, institutional investors and the capital market will therefore be important to expanding housing supply.

Housing Costs Outpace Income

The research also points to worsening affordability for Lagos residents. Rents across the state reportedly increased by between 80 per cent and 120 per cent from 2024 to 2026, while wages rose by only about 7 per cent to 9 per cent.

The disparity has placed additional pressure on household finances and made the transition from renting to homeownership more difficult for many residents.

Lagos also recorded a property price-to-income ratio of 19.2 times, compared with the five-times level used in the research to indicate severe unaffordability.

Rental prices vary significantly across the state. Two-bedroom apartments in Ikoyi were estimated at between ₦8 million and ₦70 million annually, with an average field-survey figure of about ₦30 million. In Victoria Island, rents ranged from ₦3 million to more than ₦50 million, with an average of approximately ₦18 million.

Yaba, Surulere and Ikeja recorded estimated two-bedroom rents ranging from ₦1.5 million to ₦12 million, while Lekki Phase 1 recorded a range of ₦1 million to ₦40 million.

Infrastructure and Property Values

GTI’s research identified infrastructure as the most significant factor influencing property prices across the 15 Lagos zones examined.

Roads, transport systems, drainage, electricity and other public infrastructure can improve access and raise the attractiveness of locations. However, improvements can also increase land values and housing costs when new housing supply fails to keep pace with demand.

The finding reinforces the connection between infrastructure investment, land values and housing affordability. For urban planners, coordinating infrastructure expansion with housing development could therefore become increasingly important.

Pension Funds Seen as Potential Housing Capital

The research identified Nigeria’s pension industry as another potential source of long-term housing finance.

Nigeria’s pension funds hold about ₦30 trillion in assets and can allocate up to 30 per cent to instruments such as Real Estate Investment Trusts, mortgages and asset-backed securities. According to Nubi’s presentation, however, only about 5 per cent is currently allocated to housing-related instruments.

Greater institutional investment could expand the pool of long-term capital available to developers, provided suitable investment structures, risk-management systems and affordable housing projects are available.

Nubi also argued that Nigeria needs to treat housing increasingly as an investment asset rather than depending mainly on government-funded construction. Potential financing channels include REITs, bonds, asset-backed securities, crowdfunding and mortgage innovations.

GTI Financing Proposals

GTI Research has proposed alternative mechanisms to unlock capital tied to Lagos’ land and property market.

One proposal is a Micro-Title Regularisation Window, which would seek to convert informal land occupation into mortgageable titles using satellite imagery and drone mapping.

Another proposal is a Lagos Infrastructure Value Capture Authority, designed to capture part of the increase in land values associated with public infrastructure investment and direct the proceeds towards infrastructure financing.

GTI estimates that its proposed financing instruments could mobilise between ₦2.75 trillion and ₦3.85 trillion annually, equivalent to about 45 per cent to 65 per cent of the estimated housing capital gap.

Housing Supply Remains the Central Challenge

The scale of Lagos’ housing shortage points to substantial unmet demand, but the research also highlights the importance of targeting affordable and middle-income segments rather than focusing predominantly on high-end developments.

Developers face significant challenges from construction costs and financing conditions, which can make it difficult to deliver homes at prices accessible to ordinary households. Rental housing, student accommodation and other demand-driven segments could offer opportunities where projects can be structured around sustainable financing.

Closing the housing gap will require coordinated action among government, developers, financial institutions, pension funds and capital-market operators. Measures such as improved land administration, infrastructure provision, faster approvals and lower development costs could help create conditions for greater private-sector participation.

For Lagos, the issue extends beyond building more houses. The state must also mobilise enough long-term capital to support development while ensuring that new homes are located where residents can afford both housing and the transport and essential services associated with them.

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A professor at the has revealed that nearly 40 percent of university lecturers in Nigeria now sleep in their offices due to the country’s worsening housing crisis.

The disclosure was made by , a professor of estate management and housing advocate, during a housing policy event held at the university in .

Rising Rent Pushing Lecturers Out of Housing Market

According to Nubi, the sharp rise in rental costs around major urban centres, especially around the campus in Akoka, has made accommodation unaffordable for many academics.

“I stand here to tell you today that almost 40 percent of lecturers in universities sleep in their offices,” he said.

“They sleep in their offices. You see them taking baths around the faculty every morning. That is the state of the country.”

The professor cited a recent case where a two-bedroom apartment around Akoka was rented for ₦3.5 million per year, a price he said is far beyond what most lecturers can comfortably afford.

According to him, such rent could amount to about seven months of a professor’s salary.

Nigeria’s Housing Deficit Continues to Grow

Nubi said the situation facing lecturers reflects a broader national housing crisis affecting millions of Nigerians.

He explained that Nigeria’s housing deficit has expanded significantly over the years, rising from about five million units decades ago to an estimated 17–22 million housing units today.

“Instead of the problem reducing, the problem keeps increasing,” he noted.

Calls for Inclusive Housing Policies

The professor made the remarks during a forum organised by the in partnership with the , the , and other housing advocacy groups.

Participants at the event stressed the need for inclusive housing policies that ensure affordable accommodation for workers and low-income residents.

Nubi cited international examples where developers are required to allocate a percentage of housing units for essential workers such as teachers and drivers in order to create mixed-income communities.

Concerns Over Demolitions and Displacement

Civil society organisations also criticised forced evictions and demolitions in some urban communities, particularly areas like , which they say have worsened housing insecurity for low-income residents.

Housing experts warned that failure to address housing inequality could lead to wider social instability and urged policymakers to work with researchers and civil society groups to develop sustainable solutions.

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Experts from the Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development (CHSD), University of Lagos (UNILAG), and the African Cities Research Consortium (ACRC) have called for immediate intervention in high-risk, flood-prone communities in Lagos to avert large-scale damage to lives, homes and infrastructure.

The warning was issued during a Stakeholders’ Consultative Forum on the Ajegunle-Ikorodu Action Research on Climate Resilience held at the Agboyi-Ketu Local Council Development Area (LCDA).

Lagos at Growing Risk

Speaking at the forum, CHSD Co-Director and Action Research for Climate Resilience Lead, Peter Elias, revealed that precipitation levels in Lagos are projected to double by 2050. He cautioned that without proactive adaptation measures, rising sea levels could leave nearly 50 per cent of the city underwater by 2100.

Elias explained that while climate change is a global phenomenon that cannot be entirely eliminated, its impacts can be mitigated through forward-looking urban planning and resilient infrastructure.

According to him, vulnerable communities—particularly informal settlements along lagoon and ocean frontiers—face the greatest threat. He noted that Ajegunle-Ikorodu was selected for the research because of its low-lying coastal terrain and escalating rainfall patterns.

“Flooding in the area is not solely linked to rainfall or dam releases but also to ocean surges caused by backflow from the Atlantic Ocean,” Elias said.

44,000 Residents Exposed

The study found that more than 44,000 residents and over 6,000 buildings in Ajegunle-Ikorodu are exposed to flood risks, with the most vulnerable zones located in the lowest-lying sections of the community.

Elias added that rapid urbanisation, inadequate drainage systems and indiscriminate waste disposal have compounded the problem, placing homes, businesses and public infrastructure under increasing strain.

He warned that existing infrastructure design standards are insufficient to withstand projected future climate conditions. Local drainage systems currently built for five- to 10-year storm events, he said, must be upgraded to accommodate 25-year storms under RCP 4.5 and 50-year storms under RCP 8.5 climate scenarios.

“Major drainage channels should be expanded to handle 50- to 100-year design capacity. Roads and culverts require additional freeboard of between 0.5 and 1.0 metres, while critical facilities such as schools and markets must be elevated above projected flood levels,” he stated.

Global Relevance of Local Action

The City Manager of ACRC, Temilade Sesan, highlighted the global importance of the initiative, noting that Lagos is contributing significantly to international discussions on climate-smart urban transformation.

She explained that ACRC adopts a long-term theory-of-change approach, defining future goals and working backwards to determine the steps required today to achieve resilient outcomes.

Council Backs Research-Driven Solutions

Chairman of Agboyi-Ketu LCDA, Adetola Abubakar, described flooding and other climate-related challenges in the area as serious but surmountable.

She commended CHSD and ACRC for pursuing sustainable, research-based interventions and assured stakeholders of the council’s readiness to support implementation of recommended strategies.

Abubakar noted that Agboyi-Ketu is uniquely vulnerable due to its riverine and island geography. The Agboyi I, II and III communities sit within the Lagos Lagoon, while Ajegunle lies along interconnected creeks, increasing exposure to tidal surges and heavy rainfall events.

Toward a Resilient Future

Founding Director of CHSD, Timothy Nubi, described Ajegunle-Ikorodu as highly vulnerable to climate hazards and emphasised that collaboration between research institutions and local authorities is essential to building resilience.

He said the partnership aims to deliver practical, community-based strategies that address both immediate flooding challenges and long-term sustainability.

A community representative, Olawale Oyeneye, who has participated in the research since June 2025, praised the inclusive data-gathering process. He said residents’ involvement has helped identify additional community needs, including improved schools and 24-hour healthcare services.

As climate threats intensify, experts at the forum stressed that timely intervention, infrastructure upgrades and coordinated planning are critical to safeguarding Lagos’ coastal communities and ensuring the city’s long-term resilience.

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Researchers have called for urgent community-led efforts to address worsening flooding in Ajegunle, Lagos State, stressing the need for inclusive and sustainable solutions to protect vulnerable residents.

The call came during a meeting between Ajegunle residents and experts from the Centre for Housing and Sustainable Development (CHSD), University of Lagos, under the African Cities Research Consortium (ACRC) led by the University of Manchester, UK.

Prof. Peter Elias, Co-Director of CHSD, said flooding in Lagos’ coastal settlements is worsening due to climate change, poor planning, and weak infrastructure. He noted that the Action Research for Climate Resilience (AR4CR) project aims to develop solutions through collaboration with local stakeholders.

Temilade Sesan, Lagos City Manager for ACRC, said the initiative will harness community knowledge to mitigate flood risks that cause deaths, asset loss, and displacement.

Bimbo Oshobe, President of the Nigerian Slum/Informal Settlement Federation, urged government support for the construction of embankments to protect the community, noting that dam releases and climate change worsen flooding beyond rainfall.

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