The Federal Government is seeking $1.5 billion in proposed financing from the World Bank for climate resilience, early childhood development and social protection.

The proposed financing comprises three separate $500 million International Development Association (IDA) credits, according to documents cited in the report.

The facilities are at different stages of preparation and are therefore not yet approved loans.

$500m for Climate Resilience

The first proposed facility is an additional $500 million for the Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes (ACReSAL) project.

The World Bank is scheduled to consider the proposed financing on October 29, 2026.

If approved, the additional credit would increase total World Bank financing for ACReSAL from $700 million to $1.2 billion.

The proposed additional financing includes $310 million for dryland management, $165 million for community climate resilience and $25 million for institutional strengthening and project management.

The programme covers 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory, focusing on land degradation, water insecurity, climate vulnerability and agricultural productivity.

$500m Early Childhood Development Programme

Another proposed $500 million IDA credit is for Nigeria’s Early Childhood Development programme.

The programme is designed to expand access to integrated services for children aged zero to five and their caregivers across all 36 states and the FCT.

It will cover areas including health, nutrition, early learning and childcare.

According to the figures cited in the project documents, 40 per cent of Nigerian children under five are stunted, while fewer than half are developmentally on track.

Only 36 per cent of children aged between 36 and 59 months reportedly attend organised early learning.

The proposed facility is currently scheduled for World Bank board consideration on March 15, 2027.

Another $500m for Social Protection

The third proposed facility is the $500 million Household Prosperity and Empowerment – Social Protection Project, known as HOPE-SP.

The programme is intended to strengthen Nigeria’s social assistance system for poor and vulnerable households.

It would support targeted conditional and unconditional cash transfers, strengthen social protection institutions and gradually increase financing from federal and state government budgets.

The proposed facility is scheduled for board consideration on March 16, 2027.

Nigeria’s Debt Position

The proposed $1.5 billion financing comes as Nigeria’s public debt continues to attract attention.

The Debt Management Office reported that Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026. The DMO published the latest debt figure on September 25, 2026. 

The three World Bank facilities remain proposals at this stage. If approved on their currently scheduled dates, they would add $1.5 billion to Nigeria’s World Bank financing pipeline.

The World Bank’s current country financing database shows Nigeria had 215 projects and total commitment amounts of about $45.06 billion as of August 31, 2026. 

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The World Bank has approved a $1.25 billion Development Policy Financing (DPF) loan for Nigeria despite growing public concerns over the country’s rising debt profile, while unveiling a new six-year partnership framework aimed at accelerating private sector-led economic growth and job creation.

The approval was announced on Wednesday following a meeting of the World Bank Board, which endorsed both the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) Development Policy Financing operation and a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) covering 2026 to 2032.

The latest facility comes amid widespread criticism from many Nigerians over the government’s increasing reliance on external borrowing and calls for greater accountability in the utilisation of previous World Bank loans.

According to the World Bank, the $1.25 billion loan will support reforms designed to strengthen Nigeria’s economic competitiveness, improve the investment climate, and stimulate private sector-led growth.

The institution said the financing would help deepen Nigeria’s capital markets, modernise regulations governing the digital economy and e-governance, advance power sector reforms, reduce trade barriers under the ECOWAS and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) frameworks, improve access to quality agricultural inputs, and strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation.

The bank noted that the financing forms part of a broader package of support combining policy-based lending with investments in energy, digital infrastructure, agriculture, social protection, and private sector development.

Alongside the loan approval, the World Bank launched its new Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria, which will guide its engagement with the country between 2026 and 2032.

Under the strategy, the bank aims to support programmes expected to provide electricity access to 32 million Nigerians, broadband connectivity to 58 million people, improved health and nutrition services for 40 million citizens, and increased agricultural productivity for 9.5 million farmers through better access to quality inputs.

The framework also seeks to strengthen human capital development while expanding investments in digital infrastructure and energy to stimulate economic growth.

World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said the new partnership framework would focus on creating sustainable employment by enabling private sector investment.

According to him, recent macroeconomic reforms have helped stabilise Nigeria’s economy, but sustained improvements in living standards would require addressing structural constraints limiting business growth and investment.

The World Bank also disclosed that its private sector financing arm, the International Finance Corporation, and its political risk insurance agency, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, would play key roles in mobilising private investment under the new framework.

IFC Divisional Director for Nigeria, Dahlia Khalifa, said Nigeria’s long-term economic prospects depend on its ability to attract investment, improve productivity and unlock private sector job creation.

Similarly, MIGA Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ed Mountfield, said the agency would expand the use of guarantees and political risk insurance to encourage investments in critical sectors, including infrastructure and financial services.

The newly approved facility is the second-largest World Bank loan granted to Nigeria under the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, following the $1.5 billion Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing approved in June 2024.

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The Federal Government has dismissed claims that funds from the federation account are being diverted, insisting that deductions by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) are legitimate and properly accounted for.

In a statement, the Minister of State for Finance, Taiwo Oyedele, said recent interpretations of the World Bank Nigeria Development Update were misleading.

According to him, some reports wrongly described FAAC deductions as “leakages” or hidden spending, contrary to the World Bank’s actual findings.

“The interpretations misrepresent the World Bank’s analysis and reflect a misunderstanding of Nigeria’s fiscal system,” the ministry stated.

The government explained that the deductions referenced in the report cover statutory transfers, savings, security expenditures, cost-of-collection charges, and refunds to Ministries, Departments and Agencies.

It stressed that these are legitimate fiscal obligations, including allocations to subnational governments, and should not be classified as missing funds.

The ministry also faulted what it described as selective reporting, noting that positive aspects of the World Bank report were largely ignored.

According to the government, the World Bank acknowledged that recent reforms would enhance transparency and increase revenue available to all tiers of government.

The ministry highlighted that new fiscal measures introduced in 2026, including an executive order to improve petroleum revenue remittance, are already addressing concerns around deductions.

It added that the reforms are expected to boost distributable revenue by about 0.4 per cent of GDP annually.

Beyond revenue concerns, the government said the report pointed to broader economic improvements, including declining inflation, stronger external reserves, and a current account surplus.

It also noted an improvement in Nigeria’s debt indicators, with a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio recorded for the first time in over a decade.

The Federal Government maintained that the World Bank’s overall conclusion was positive, emphasising that ongoing reforms are yielding results and should be sustained.

It reiterated its commitment to strengthening fiscal transparency, improving revenue mobilisation, and ensuring efficient public spending.

The ministry urged stakeholders and the media to interpret fiscal data responsibly to avoid undermining public confidence in ongoing economic reforms.

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The Central Bank of Nigeria has defended its recent policy decisions, stating that ongoing reforms have helped cushion the impact of global economic shocks on Nigerians.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso made this known during the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, where he emphasised that the apex bank’s Monetary Policy Committee decisions are guided strictly by data.

According to Cardoso, timely reforms prevented what could have been a far more severe economic outcome for the country.

“If we had not taken the steps we did at the time—and if the reforms had not been implemented when they were—the outcome for the country could have been far more difficult and painful,” he said.

Nigeria’s inflation rate climbed to 15.38 percent in March 2026, reversing a prolonged period of gradual decline. The CBN governor attributed the increase to global pressures, particularly disruptions linked to tensions between the United States and Iran, which drove up energy, transportation, and food costs.

He noted that the central bank had deliberately resisted calls to ease monetary policy prematurely, anticipating external shocks that could destabilise the economy.

“This underscores an important point: members of the MPC have access to data and insights not always visible to the public,” Cardoso added.

Despite the inflationary pressures, the CBN reiterated its commitment to reducing inflation to single-digit levels, expressing confidence that economic stability is gradually taking hold.

“We remain focused on resilience because it directly addresses the concerns of Nigerians,” he said.

Also speaking, Minister of Finance Wale Edun said the country’s reform agenda is proving durable and self-sustaining, helping Nigeria navigate global economic uncertainties.

He highlighted key measures such as the adoption of a market-reflective foreign exchange regime and market-driven petroleum pricing, describing them as critical steps toward stabilising the economy.

Edun added that Nigeria’s reform programme has received positive feedback from international partners, noting that it is strengthening economic fundamentals and restoring investor confidence.

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The World Bank Group has projected that smarter management of water resources in agriculture could generate nearly 245 million long-term jobs globally while helping feed a population expected to reach 10 billion by 2050.

This was disclosed in a new report titled Nourish and Flourish: Water Solutions to Feed 10 Billion People on a Livable Planet, which highlights the urgent need to reform how water is used across the global food system.

Water management key to food security

According to the report, current agricultural water management practices are inefficient and unsustainable, with some regions overusing water while others underutilise available resources.

Under existing systems, global agriculture can only reliably support food production for less than half of the world’s population.

The World Bank said rebalancing water allocation, improving crop placement and strengthening global trade systems could significantly increase food production while protecting ecosystems.

Economic growth and job creation potential

Paschal Donohoe, Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer of the World Bank Group, said water management decisions will have far-reaching implications for economic growth and livelihoods.

“The way we manage water for food will have profound implications for jobs, livelihoods, and economic growth,” he said.

He added that better decisions on crop location, water distribution and trade systems can improve resilience and unlock new economic opportunities, especially in regions like sub-Saharan Africa.

Framework for smarter agriculture

The report introduces a new framework that links water availability with food production and international trade.

Countries are categorised based on water stress levels and whether they are net food importers or exporters.

This approach helps policymakers identify where rainfed agriculture can be expanded, where irrigation investments are most needed, and where trade offers a more sustainable solution.

Investment needs and funding gap

The World Bank estimates that expanding irrigation and modernising water systems could require between $24 billion and $70 billion annually through 2050.

Currently, governments spend about $490 billion each year on agricultural support, mostly through subsidies.

Redirecting part of this funding towards sustainable water management could accelerate progress and improve outcomes.

However, the institution emphasised that public funding alone will not be sufficient.

Private sector participation crucial

The report calls for stronger private sector involvement, supported by effective policies, regulatory frameworks and access to finance.

Farmers, who are the primary users of irrigation systems, are more likely to invest when risks are reduced through better access to markets, digital tools and modern equipment.

Guangzhe Chen said combining infrastructure investment, policy support and private capital can deliver greater impact.

“When investments in infrastructure, policies and private capital come together, the impact can be greater than the sum of their parts,” he said.

Future plans and global impacts

The World Bank said it is already working with countries to implement policy reforms and scale investments in sustainable agriculture.

The institution plans to double its annual agribusiness financing to $9 billion by 2030 and mobilise an additional $5 billion yearly under its AgriConnect initiative.

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The World Bank Group has cautioned that Nigeria and other developing economies could face a severe employment crisis in the coming years as millions of young people prepare to enter the labour market without sufficient job opportunities.

In a blog post published on its official platform, the Washington-based institution stated that demographic shifts across developing countries are set to become one of the most significant forces shaping the global economy over the next decade.

According to the bank, about 1.2 billion young people in developing countries are expected to reach working age within the next 10 to 15 years. However, current projections indicate that only about 400 million jobs are likely to be created within the same timeframe, leaving a potential shortfall of hundreds of millions of jobs.

The President of the World Bank Group, Ajay Banga, noted that while global discourse often centres on immediate crises such as geopolitical conflicts, technological disruptions and market volatility, structural factors like demographics, food security and globalisation trends may have deeper long-term consequences.

He described the emerging employment gap as not just a development concern but also an economic and national security issue, warning that failure to address it could fuel social unrest, irregular migration and instability, particularly in regions with rapidly expanding youth populations.

The bank observed that the issue received limited attention at recent global gatherings, including the World Economic Forum, where discussions were dominated by short-term geopolitical and economic challenges.

To mitigate the looming crisis, the World Bank said it is advancing a jobs-focused strategy anchored on three pillars: infrastructure development, business environment reforms and private-sector expansion.

The first pillar emphasises investment in both physical and human capital infrastructure, including electricity, transportation networks, healthcare and education systems. The bank cited a skills development centre in Bhubaneswar, India, which trains nearly 38,000 individuals annually through partnerships between government and private-sector actors, aligning training programmes with labour market demands.

Secondly, the institution stressed the need for predictable regulatory frameworks and transparent policies to encourage entrepreneurship and attract domestic and foreign investment. It noted that micro, small and medium-sized enterprises account for the majority of employment in developing economies and require supportive environments to scale.

The third pillar focuses on mobilising financing through the bank’s private-sector arms, offering equity investments, guarantees and political risk insurance to reduce investment uncertainties. As an example, the bank referenced a trade finance guarantee for Banco do Brasil, projected to unlock approximately $700 million in financing for small businesses, particularly in agriculture.

The World Bank identified infrastructure and energy, agribusiness, primary healthcare, tourism and value-added manufacturing as sectors with the highest potential to generate large-scale employment.

It further argued that addressing the jobs gap is not a zero-sum contest between developed and developing nations. By 2050, more than 85 per cent of the global population is expected to reside in developing countries, presenting significant opportunities for expanded markets, stronger trade partnerships and more resilient global supply chains.

The bank maintained that perceived and actual investment risks remain the primary barriers to capital inflows into developing markets, rather than a lack of viable opportunities.

“If we get this right, demographic change can become an engine of growth and stability,” the institution stated. “If we get it wrong, the world will continue reacting to crises that were visible years in advance.”

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The World Bank has cautioned that Nigeria’s goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2050 could falter if urgent investments in early childhood development are not made.

Experts speaking at a policy dialogue in Abuja highlighted that gaps in nutrition, healthcare, early learning, and protection during the first five years of life are already shaping the productivity of millions of Nigerian children.

Ritgak Tilley-Gyado, Lead of the World Bank’s Early Years Programme, stressed that “investing in children under five is not social spending—it is an economic strategy.” She noted that disparities in learning, health, and life skills often begin in infancy and, if unaddressed, become increasingly difficult and costly to reverse.

Tilley-Gyado explained that two children born with equal potential can experience radically different developmental paths based on early nutrition, safety, and caregiving. By the time they start school, these differences are often entrenched, affecting future workforce readiness, innovation capacity, and economic output.

Experts also raised concerns about fragmented government policies. “Children do not grow in administrative silos,” Tilley-Gyado noted, emphasizing that health, nutrition, sanitation, safety, and early learning are interconnected and require coordinated interventions across ministries.

Ikemesit Effiong of SBM Intelligence added that Nigeria is already losing critical productivity before children even enter the formal education system. Citing the 2024 Demographic and Health Survey, he reported that neonatal mortality remains high at 41 deaths per 1,000 live births and about 40% of children under five are stunted due to chronic undernutrition.

Paediatric neuroscientist Tosin Olorunmoteni stressed that brain development is most rapid in the first 2,000 days of life, warning that nearly half of Nigerian children live in poverty. She called for a multisectoral national strategy to support all children, with targeted interventions for those at risk, stronger data collection, and improved service delivery.

Joe Abah, Country Director of DAI Global, described early childhood underinvestment as a potential “demographic disaster,” noting that Nigeria risks turning its youthful population into a liability rather than a demographic dividend. He advocated for a unified framework with clear budget commitments, high-level oversight, and accountability to place children at the center of policy action.

Vahyala Kwaga of BudgIT Foundation highlighted the need for transparent public finance for early childhood programs, warning that weak tracking of allocations limits advocacy and accountability.

The dialogue brought together think tanks, development partners, and academics to explore how early childhood interventions—each dollar potentially yielding $13 in future economic returns—can help Nigeria leverage its demographic advantage and achieve sustainable long-term growth.

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President Bola Tinubu has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, assuring the World Bank that there will be no reversal despite the initial hardship faced by citizens.

Tinubu gave the assurance on Tuesday while receiving a World Bank delegation led by the Managing Director of Operations, Anna Bjerde, at the State House in Abuja. He described the reform agenda as a necessary pathway to stabilising the economy and unlocking opportunities for Nigeria’s growing population.

According to the President, although the reforms were difficult at the onset, abandoning them would undermine long-term national development. He stressed that his government has chosen a firm path and remains focused on delivering sustainable economic growth.

Tinubu said Nigeria, as Africa’s largest economy, must take bold steps to reposition itself, particularly through reforms in agriculture, infrastructure, and fiscal management. He called on the World Bank to support efforts aimed at expanding mechanised farming, improving access to quality seedlings, and strengthening the availability of locally produced fertilisers.

The President explained that his administration’s reform choices included ending the fuel subsidy regime and unifying the foreign exchange market, decisions he acknowledged caused inflationary pressure in the short term. However, he maintained that the measures were essential to address longstanding structural distortions.

He noted that inflation has begun to ease and that the naira has shown increased stability, attributing the progress to consistent policy direction and improved transparency. Tinubu added that reforms would continue to prioritise accountability, reduced waste, and better use of public resources.

The President urged the World Bank to explore innovative financing models that would accelerate growth, reduce excessive intermediaries, manage investment risks, and build the skills of Nigerians, especially the youth population.

In her response, Bjerde commended Tinubu’s consistency and resolve in implementing reforms over the past two years, describing the outcomes as remarkable. She said Nigeria has become a reference point in global discussions with policymakers and investors due to the administration’s steady approach.

Bjerde noted that many countries often slow down or reverse reforms when challenges arise, but Nigeria’s leadership has remained firm, sending a strong signal to the international community. She added that the clarity of direction has boosted investor confidence.

She disclosed that the World Bank’s engagement with Nigeria is anchored on the country’s long-term development vision, including its ambition to grow the economy to $1 trillion and achieve a seven per cent growth rate.

Job creation, according to the World Bank official, remains central to the partnership, especially as Africa’s youthful population continues to expand. She highlighted that infrastructure development, agricultural modernisation, digital innovation, and access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises are key areas of focus.

Bjerde revealed that the World Bank’s public sector portfolio in Nigeria currently stands at about $17 billion, making the country one of its largest clients. She added that private sector operations through the International Finance Corporation have grown significantly, while risk guarantees provided by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency are expected to expand further.

She also disclosed plans for a new Development Policy Operation designed to support Nigeria’s budget and reform agenda, noting that the instrument aligns directly with the government’s policy direction.

The World Bank official praised Nigeria’s efforts in digital development and human capital investment, describing them as critical drivers of youth employment and long-term productivity. She said the institution remains committed to supporting reforms that promote inclusive growth and poverty reduction.

Tinubu, in closing, reiterated that his administration would continue to engage international partners while maintaining ownership of its reform agenda, stressing that Nigeria’s future prosperity depends on discipline, courage, and consistency.

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The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy will record its fastest pace of growth in more than a decade, revising its growth outlook upward to 4.4 per cent for both 2026 and 2027.

The projection was contained in the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday. The new forecast represents an upward revision of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from the 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent growth rates earlier projected in June 2025.

According to the Bretton Woods institution, Nigeria’s economic growth strengthened to an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, driven largely by robust expansion in the services sector, particularly finance, information and communication technology, as well as a modest recovery in agriculture. The report also highlighted Nigeria’s transition into a net exporter of refined petroleum products as a contributing factor.

“In Nigeria, growth edged up to 4.2 percent in 2025,” the World Bank said. “The increase was supported by strong services activity, especially in finance and ICT, a gradual rebound in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.”

The Bank noted that economic momentum is expected to strengthen further over the medium term, with growth forecast to reach 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027 — the fastest rate recorded in over ten years.

It explained that the improved outlook is anchored on continued expansion in the services sector, a stronger recovery in agricultural output, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.

“Economic reforms, including adjustments in the tax system and the continuation of prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity,” the report stated. “These measures should also help improve investor confidence and contribute to a further moderation in inflation.”

The World Bank added that higher crude oil output is expected to compensate for softer international oil prices, thereby supporting fiscal revenues and improving Nigeria’s external balance.

However, the Bank cautioned that sustaining the projected growth trajectory would depend on Nigeria’s ability to address deep-rooted structural challenges. While fiscal rules were introduced in 2007 to reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks, weak institutional capacity has often limited effective enforcement, resulting in inconsistent fiscal discipline over the years.

The report noted that ongoing reform efforts are aimed at resolving these structural constraints to ensure that growth remains durable and inclusive.

On the global outlook, the World Bank said the world economy has shown greater resilience than previously anticipated despite ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Global growth is projected to ease slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before picking up to 2.7 per cent in 2027, representing an upward revision from earlier estimates released in June.

“The global economy is proving more resilient than expected,” the Bank said, “with growth remaining broadly stable over the next two years despite persistent uncertainty in global trade and policy environments.”

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