The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has predicted early rainfall in several states across Nigeria but warned farmers against rushing into planting, stressing that the official rainy season has not fully commenced.
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, disclosed this in Abuja during the unveiling of NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP).
Despite early showers recorded in states such as Lagos, Rivers, and Bayelsa, the minister cautioned that extreme weather patterns are expected between March and May. He advised farmers to delay planting to avoid losses caused by false starts to the rainy season.
Highlights of NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction
According to the report, significant rainfall is expected across southern Nigeria this year. The SCP also forecasts variations in rainfall onset, cessation, and possible extreme weather events across different regions.
Early rainfall onset is predicted in parts of the south-south, south-east, and north-central states, as well as sections of the north-west and north-east. However, some northeastern areas may experience delayed rainfall onset.
The agency also projects variations in rainfall cessation. Some states may witness an earlier-than-normal end to the rainy season, while others could experience extended rainfall periods.
NiMet further predicts:
- Above-normal rainfall in several northern and southeastern states, including the Federal Capital Territory.
- Below-normal rainfall in parts of the north-west and south-west.
- A generally normal annual rainfall pattern across most regions when compared to long-term averages.
Dry Spells and August Break Forecast
Between March and May, severe dry spells exceeding two weeks are likely in parts of the south-west. Moderate dry spells are expected in several southern and middle-belt states.
During the June–July–August period, severe dry spells lasting up to three weeks are forecast in parts of the north and central regions.
The Little Dry Season (LDS), commonly known as the “August Break,” is expected to begin toward the end of July. It may be prolonged and severe in parts of the south-west, with reduced rainfall days lasting up to several weeks.
Government Calls for Climate-Informed Planning
The Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Dr. Yakubu Adam Farmata, described the Seasonal Climate Prediction as a strategic national tool.
He emphasized that the SCP provides timely and actionable climate intelligence to guide agriculture, disaster preparedness, water resource management, and infrastructure planning.
The forecast comes amid growing concerns over climate variability and its impact on food security and farming activities across Nigeria.
