Africa’s housing crisis has deepened, with the continent now facing an estimated $1.4 trillion housing finance shortfall, according to the International Finance Corporation (IFC).
The report highlights a widening gap between capital inflows and rising housing demand across Africa, as urbanisation and population growth continue to outpace supply. Analysts warn that the deficit could worsen if urgent structural reforms are not implemented.
The IFC estimates that Africa’s housing deficit could surge to 130 million units by 2030, up from about 50 million units currently, underscoring the rapid pace at which demand is growing beyond available supply.
Globally, housing finance markets are experiencing strong expansion, driven by digital lending innovations, supportive government policies, and increasing urban migration. Projections indicate that the global residential mortgage market could grow from $15 trillion in 2025 to nearly $23 trillion by 2033.
However, Africa continues to lag behind due to weak mortgage systems, limited access to long-term financing, and rising public debt burdens that constrain government investment in housing infrastructure.
The UN-Habitat has also warned that developing regions, particularly in Africa, are not keeping pace with global housing finance growth, raising concerns over affordability and access.
Speaking at the 19th Africa International Housing Show in Abuja, Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Musa Dangiwa, stressed the urgency of addressing both supply and financing challenges.
He said millions of Africans remain unable to afford decent housing, even when units are available, noting that the Federal Government is focused on fixing structural and macroeconomic barriers to affordability.
Within the continent, Nigeria and South Africa dominate the housing finance market, accounting for approximately 45 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. Despite this, Nigeria’s mortgage penetration remains below 0.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), one of the lowest globally.
The country’s mortgage portfolio is estimated at between N500 billion and N700 billion between 2023 and 2025, reflecting limited access to structured housing finance.
To address the gap, the Federal Government has introduced the Renewed Hope Housing Programme, aimed at boosting supply through a mix of cities, estates, and social housing initiatives. Authorities say over N70 billion in private sector funding has already been mobilised through public-private partnerships.
Dangiwa also highlighted efforts by the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria to expand access through schemes such as Rent-to-Own and rental assistance programmes targeting low- and middle-income earners.
He added that the proposed MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund is expected to unlock long-term financing and improve mortgage accessibility across the country.
Industry stakeholders believe Nigeria’s housing finance market could grow to between $1 billion and $2 billion by 2030 if ongoing reforms are sustained. However, this remains significantly below the estimated N20 trillion to N30 trillion required annually to bridge the housing deficit.
President of the Nigerian Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers, Kunle Alonge, called for stronger government incentives and regulatory frameworks to encourage private sector participation.
He noted that successful housing systems in developed economies rely on structured collaboration between government and private investors, urging Nigeria to adopt a similar model.
As global housing finance continues to expand, experts say Africa must align policy frameworks, financing systems, and land administration processes to unlock scale and improve affordability.
Dangiwa reiterated that housing remains a fundamental human need, stressing that investments in the sector would drive job creation, economic growth, and urban development across the continent.
