Nigeria’s capital market could witness a transformative leap in 2026 with the potential stock market listings of Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
Analysts predict that these dual listings could expand the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), attract unprecedented liquidity, and advance President Bola Tinubu’s $1 trillion economic vision.
Mega Listings Could Reshape NGX
Financial expert Bismarck Rewane of Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. projects that both Dangote Refinery and NNPCL could debut on the NGX as early as next year. Dangote Refinery, valued at roughly $32 billion, is the world’s largest single-train refinery with a 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity. NNPCL, encompassing upstream, midstream, downstream, and gas assets, is informally valued between $30 billion and $60 billion and is Nigeria’s most strategic national asset.
Experts suggest that a partial public float of 10–20% of Dangote Refinery, combined with an NNPCL listing, could inject billions of dollars into the market, marking the largest liquidity infusion in Nigeria’s capital market history. “It would be like MTN, Airtel, Seplat, and the banks listing simultaneously,” said Modupe Fabamise, a University of Lagos capital markets lecturer.
Foreign Investment and Economic Growth Implications
The dual listings are expected to attract significant foreign portfolio investment, with global funds seeking scale, transparency, and liquidity. According to portfolio manager Kole Aluko, “Foreign investors want scale, depth, and transparency. The listings of these national champions would immediately reset Nigeria’s investment narrative.”
Economists also highlight that Dangote Refinery’s operational ramp-up could reduce fuel imports, boost petrochemical exports, and strengthen Nigeria’s external accounts. NNPCL’s increased transparency and commercialisation efforts would align with the federal government’s economic reforms to unlock private capital, diversify foreign exchange earnings, and support industrial growth.
Benefits for Ordinary Nigerians
Public listings of these energy giants would democratize wealth creation, allowing Nigerians to own shares in strategic national assets for the first time. Fabamise compared the potential impact to Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO, describing it as “a national investment milestone.”
Potential Challenges Ahead
Before listing, NNPCL must improve governance, resolve legacy liabilities, and ensure transparent reporting. Dangote Refinery needs consistent production, reliable supply chains, and predictable cash flows. Broader market conditions, including FX volatility, inflation, and interest rates, may also influence timing. Political will, especially for NNPCL partial privatization, remains a critical factor.
NGX Positioned for a Historic Milestone
If both listings proceed, Nigeria’s stock market capitalization could surge from 20% of GDP to nearly 80%, making the NGX one of Africa’s largest and most liquid exchanges. Oil and gas would dominate the market, retail participation would grow, and institutional portfolios would rebalance, enhancing Nigeria’s regional capital market influence.
The anticipated 2026 listings of Dangote Refinery and NNPCL represent more than financial events—they offer a rare opportunity to restructure Nigeria’s capital market, expand investment capacity, and accelerate economic reforms. Analysts predict that 2026 could be remembered as the year Nigeria’s capital market entered a new era of scale, depth, and liquidity.
