The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that poverty in Nigeria has risen to 63 per cent of the population despite improvements in macroeconomic stability driven by ongoing economic reforms.

The disclosure was contained in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation Report, which acknowledged progress made under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu while highlighting persistent challenges facing millions of Nigerians.

According to the report, an estimated 27 million Nigerians experienced food insecurity in the latter part of 2025, underscoring the social impact of rising living costs and economic adjustments.

The IMF noted that reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange market liberalisation, fiscal discipline measures and the end of deficit monetisation have strengthened Nigeria’s macroeconomic position and improved investor confidence.

The report showed that Nigeria’s gross international reserves increased to $46 billion in 2025 from $40 billion recorded at the end of 2024, while net reserves rose significantly from $23 billion to $35 billion within the same period.

The Fund also observed that the foreign exchange market has become more stable, with the parallel market premium remaining below five per cent, while sovereign bond spreads have remained broadly stable despite global economic uncertainties.

The IMF projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.0 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, citing improvements in the banking sector, ongoing bank recapitalisation efforts and the country’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.

Despite these gains, the Fund warned that inflationary pressures remain a concern. Inflation, which had declined for over a year, rose to 15.4 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, driven largely by increases in global fuel, food and fertiliser prices.

The report also revealed that Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal deficit widened to 4.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 as oil revenues fell below government projections.

“Higher global prices of fuel, food and fertilisers continue to exert pressure on households and could worsen poverty and food insecurity,” the IMF stated.

The Fund identified volatility in global commodity markets and domestic security challenges as major risks to Nigeria’s economic outlook.

Executive Directors of the IMF commended Nigerian authorities for maintaining macroeconomic stability but urged the government to expand social protection programmes and strengthen support for vulnerable households.

The IMF also recommended a neutral fiscal stance in 2026, improved fiscal transparency, expanded cash transfer programmes and continued reforms in public financial management.

Additionally, the Fund advised the Central Bank of Nigeria to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until inflation is brought under control and to continue efforts toward an inflation-targeting framework.

Responding to the report, the Federal Government welcomed the IMF assessment, describing it as independent validation of its reform agenda and economic management strategy.

The government highlighted a nearly 10 per cent growth in per capita income in 2025 and pointed to ongoing interventions such as cash transfer programmes, student loans, consumer credit initiatives, healthcare investments and agricultural development schemes.

Special Adviser to the President on Revenue, Taiwo Oyedele, said the administration was implementing measures to strengthen fiscal reporting, improve budget transparency and enhance public financial management systems.

The Federal Government also expressed optimism that improved crude oil production, domestic refining capacity and expanded gas exports would boost revenue generation and strengthen foreign exchange earnings.

While acknowledging the progress recorded in macroeconomic indicators, analysts said the report highlights a major policy challenge for the government: ensuring that economic reforms translate into tangible improvements in living standards and reduced poverty for millions of Nigerians.

The IMF maintained that sustained reforms, stronger social protection measures and inclusive growth policies would be essential to ensuring that economic gains are widely shared across the population.

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Nearly 80 million Nigerian youths are unemployed, while over 1,500 schools have been forced to close in the past two years due to rising insecurity, according to a new report by Plan International Nigeria.

The report, titled “State of the Nigerian Youth Report 2025”, was presented in Abuja by Jonathan Abakpa, Advocacy and Youth Programme Officer at Plan International Nigeria. It highlights worsening conditions facing young people in a country where more than 60 percent of the population is under 30.

Produced in partnership with ActionAid Nigeria and other policy experts, the report was unveiled during the Nigerian Youth Dialogue held to mark International Youth Day. It paints a grim picture of unemployment, insecurity, and wasted opportunities in Africa’s most populous nation.

Abakpa stressed that with over 200 million people and one of the world’s largest youth populations, Nigeria should be a hub of innovation and economic growth. Instead, poverty, poor infrastructure, and lack of opportunities have left millions struggling.

The report noted that about 1.7 million graduates leave tertiary institutions each year, but jobs remain scarce. “This is not just a statistic,” Abakpa said. “It represents shattered dreams and wasted talent. The desperation is pushing many into irregular migration, cybercrime, and other risky coping mechanisms.”

It further disclosed that over 600,000 people have been killed and 2.2 million kidnapped in recent years, with young people being the primary victims. More than 1,500 schools were shut down, leaving one million children without access to education. “Education, which should be a ladder of opportunity, has been violently pulled away from them,” Abakpa warned.

The report also revealed that farming communities have been devastated by violence, with over 77,000 lives lost to tribal conflicts in the past five years. Around 2.6 million people, mostly farmers, have been displaced, worsening food insecurity. UNICEF has warned that as many as 25 million Nigerians now face hunger.

Currently, more than 82.9 million Nigerians—about 40 percent of the population—live in poverty. The report observed that many young people have lost faith in government policies, a trend that could alienate an entire generation if not urgently addressed.

Despite these challenges, the report emphasized that Nigerian youth remain innovators and change-makers. It called for urgent job creation, stronger vocational training, and better connections between entrepreneurship schemes and industries.

Chairman of the House Committee on Youth in Parliament, Hon. Ayodeji Alao-Akala, reaffirmed lawmakers’ commitment to youth-focused policies. He described young Nigerians as the nation’s future and stressed the importance of harnessing their potential for national development.

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The report stated, “Macroeconomic pressure points such as rising inflation, high interest rates, and naira depreciation may drive an additional 13 million people below the national poverty line by 2025.”

PwC further noted, “The number of people living below the national poverty line is projected to increase by about 13 million by 2025,” attributing this rise to the country’s worsening inflation and high cost of living.

The report highlighted these economic headwinds as major contributors to the projected increase in poverty levels.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate stood at 34.80 per cent as of December 2024.

Also, the President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Chief Francis Meshioye, disclosed that the manufacturing sector faced severe challenges in 2024, driven by macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, soaring interest rates, and the depreciating naira.

On a positive note, however, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is projecting the economy to grow by 4.17 per cent this year, driven by ongoing reforms and stabilising inflation, Governor Olayemi Cardoso said yesterday.

Reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu in 2023, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and two devaluations of the naira, have contributed to rising inflation in Africa’s most populous country.

Cardoso stated at a conference that inflation, currently at 34.8 per cent, is expected to decline as the reforms begin to yield positive results. He also noted that foreign exchange reserves are expected to rise gradually, supported by increased oil production.

Oil output is forecast to reach 2.3 million barrels per day by mid-year, Cardoso revealed. According to him, Nigeria recorded foreign exchange inflows exceeding $6 billion in 2024, pushing foreign exchange reserves to over $40 billion.

Cardoso emphasised that the Central Bank’s priority remains maintaining price stability and strengthening market confidence. To achieve this, the bank plans to improve transparency and efficiency in the foreign exchange market.

“With limited opportunities for FX arbitrage, we anticipate greater interest in real sector development,” he added.

Similarly, Nigeria’s economy is projected to witness a decline in inflation and stabilisation of foreign exchange (FX) rates by 2025 as reforms in key economic sectors and policy adjustments take effect.

Experts shared this projection yesterday in Lagos during the Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2025 Budget and Economic Outlook, organised by PwC and BusinessDay Media.

The event, themed ‘Insights and Strategies for Navigating Nigeria’s Economic, Fiscal and Policy Landscape in 2025’, highlighted the country’s fiscal challenges and opportunities.

The experts noted that government revenue is expected to grow in 2025 due to ongoing reforms. However, achieving the ambitious revenue target of N36.35 trillion will require substantial effort .

The Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, emphasised that the high Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is contributing to inflation rather than reducing it. He explained that businesses are forced to secure financing for working capital at higher costs, thereby driving up prices.

Oyedele expressed optimism about inflation easing in 2025. He observed that while scepticism persists, the average inflation rate for 2024 stood at 33 per cent, and if conditions remain stable, the nominal inflation rate for 2025 is projected to drop to 25 per cent.

He also highlighted external factors that could impact Nigeria’s economy. According to Oyedele, President Donald Trump’s pledge to intensify oil and gas drilling may result in lower global oil prices. While this could alleviate price pressures, it presents a trade-off, as government revenue might decline due to reduced oil prices.

“The Central bank is going to introduce a code for FX by the end of the month which would improve the transparency issue. And once it’s addressed, the pressure on the FX has been taken off significantly.

“About $20 million every day is off the market. Some of the reforms we are doing from the fiscal side, it’s about $4 billion we are taking off the market as well. Nigerian businesses are being asked to pay levies, taxes, and regulatory fees in dollars. It’s about $4 billion. Once we pass our tax bills, that’s off the market. As we’re taking off those pressure from the market, we’re seeing improved liquidity coming in,” he said.

He said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is expected to contribute approximately $10 billion to the federation account this year, compared to less than $2 billion remitted last year.

He stressed the need for the industry to shift its focus from merely stabilising the naira exchange rate to fostering its recovery.

Oyedele expressed his belief that the current exchange rate does not reflect the naira’s true value, asserting that an exchange rate of N1,500 per dollar is not a fair valuation, as the naira remains undervalued.

The Chief Executive Officer of First Bank of Nigeria, Olusegun Alebiosu, highlighted the likelihood of a drop in food inflation within the year, attributing it to increased investments in agriculture expected in 2025.

Partner and Lead at PwC Strategy & Practice, West Market Area, Olusegun Zaccheaus, stated that factors such as improved revenue generation, debt sustainability, broad policy interventions, monetary policy alignment, fiscal strategy highlights, and addressing key issues for macroeconomic stability will shape Nigeria’s economy in 2025.

He noted that FX stability, price stability, and interest rates are critical monetary issues for 2025. According to him, easing volatility will depend on price discovery, transparency, market friction, liquidity, supply-demand backlogs, and market and investor confidence.

“Inflation may ease as supply-driven inflationary pressures subside and monetary policy tightening is sustained. However, the Nigerian government’s planned expenditure increase to N47.9 trillion in 2025, coupled with the introduction of a new minimum wage, is expected to drive inflation. As a result, the CBN is likely to maintain a tight monetary policy to manage these inflationary pressures,” he explained.

He further highlighted that the planned increase in telecom tariffs and rising electricity prices are expected to contribute to sector-specific inflation.

While improved price stability in petroleum products (PMS) could help mitigate some inflationary pressures, the overall impact on sectors such as telecommunications and energy may still result in higher consumer costs.

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The challenges of finding affordable homes, paying high rents, and living in unsafe or overcrowded conditions affect people of all ages and backgrounds. Here are seven key insights into how poverty and housing are deeply connected, and why this crisis needs urgent solutions.

Poverty is More Than Just Income
Poverty isn’t just about having little money. The United Nations Development Program explains that poverty is a broader issue that also includes things like access to health care, education, clean water, sanitation, electricity, and good housing. These elements are all necessary to ensure families can live decent lives. Without them, even families with steady incomes can still struggle to meet their basic needs and live in dignity.

Poverty Affects More People Than You Might Think
Poverty doesn’t look the way you might expect. Families can fall into poverty for many reasons—such as a health crisis, losing a job, or a natural disaster. In the U.S., nearly 40% of households don’t have enough savings to survive a financial shock. Around the world, the effects of poverty are even worse. Every five seconds, a child under 15 dies from preventable causes that poverty makes worse. And while many associate poverty with big cities, rural areas in places like Romania, Indonesia, and the U.S. have higher poverty rates than urban centers, showing that poverty can strike anywhere.

Affordable Housing is Hard to Find
There aren’t nearly enough affordable homes to meet the demand. In the U.S., for every 100 families with extremely low incomes, only 35 homes are available that they can afford. The global gap in affordable housing—what people can actually pay versus what homes cost—is huge, with the affordability gap reaching nearly $650 billion every year. This highlights the widespread struggle many families face in securing a home they can actually afford.

A Full-Time Job Isn’t Always Enough to Afford Housing
In many places, working full-time doesn’t guarantee access to affordable housing. In the U.S., someone earning the minimum wage would need to work more than 127 hours a week—three full-time jobs—just to afford a two-bedroom rental. To afford a one-bedroom apartment, they’d need to work 103 hours per week. This means even people working full-time jobs often can’t make ends meet when it comes to housing, showing how income alone isn’t enough to secure a stable home.

Having a Home Doesn’t Mean Stability
Even owning a home doesn’t always mean a family is secure. In the U.S., nearly 38 million households—about 31.5%—spend more than 30% of their income on housing. This forces families to make difficult choices between paying rent and affording basic necessities like food, health care, and transportation. Worldwide, housing poverty isn’t just about rent or mortgages. Over 15% of people have no access to electricity, 25% lack proper sanitation, and 11% don’t have clean water, all of which create unsafe living conditions for millions.

Owning a Home Can Help Break the Cycle of Poverty
Homeownership remains one of the most effective ways to build wealth and create stability. When families own their homes, they have a more predictable living situation compared to renting, where costs can rise unexpectedly. A stable home environment also allows children to do better in school and grow up with better opportunities. By having a secure place to live, families are more likely to break free from the cycle of poverty.

Housing and Health Are Closely Connected
The quality of the housing you live in can have a big impact on your health. Homes with mold, pests, and overcrowding can trigger or worsen respiratory conditions like asthma. Poor housing can also make it easier for diseases like tuberculosis, pneumonia, and cholera to spread. During health crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic, the conditions of overcrowded homes made it harder to stay safe, proving how deeply housing affects public health.

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This acknowledgment was demonstrated through President Tinubu’s participation in the COP 28 summit in Dubai shortly after assuming office.

Senator Akume emphasized that President Tinubu is among the global leaders committed to reducing extreme poverty, promising a ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ aimed at improving the lives of millions of Nigerians in the coming years.

The SGF made these remarks at a forum addressing the impact of climate change on farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria. The event, organized by the office of the Deputy Chairman, House Committee on Environment, Hon. Terseer Ugbor, took place at the National Assembly complex in Abuja.

READ ALSO: Federal Government of Nigeria Signs MoU On Climate Change with UN Agencies

Represented by his Senior Special Assistant, Technical, Professor Bolaji Babatunde, Akume highlighted the president’s recent establishment of a 25-person Committee on Climate Action and Green Economic Solutions. This committee is tasked with coordinating and overseeing all policies and programs related to climate action and green economic development. Additionally, a special envoy on Climate Change Action has been appointed by the president.

“The president’s actions indicate that Nigeria is prepared to take bold measures to fulfill the commitments made under the Paris Agreement, aiming to reduce emissions by 20% and by 45% by the year 2030. Earlier this year, Nigeria launched the Nationally Determined Contributions Implementation Framework (NDC-IF),” Akume stated.

He further elaborated that the NDC implementation framework is not merely a set of ambitious goals but a reflection of Nigeria’s collective vision, shared values, and unwavering commitment to the Paris Agreement. The framework also underscores efforts to secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

READ ALSO: Climate Experts Decry Political Interference in Ecological Funds Allocation

“The framework is a national tool designed to ensure coordination, transparency, and resource mobilization, featuring 19 outcomes, 146 outputs, and 293 key performance indicators. It provides a central platform for stakeholders to understand Nigeria’s climate action priorities, support needs, and ongoing progress, enabling alignment and support,” Akume added.

During the forum’s opening, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Abbas Tajudeen, acknowledged that climate change has exacerbated the farmer-herder conflicts in the country. Represented by Hon. Dickson Takighir (APC, Benue), Abbas stressed the need to eliminate outdated herding and farming methods and adopt global trends in agriculture amidst the challenges posed by climate change.

“As someone from one of the hotspots (Kaduna) of the Farmer-Herder clashes, I am well-acquainted with the subject. Indeed, it is evident that in many parts of the country, farming communities have been deserted, with dire repercussions on food security,” Abbas remarked.

He added that climate change has intensified competition for dwindling resources between farmers and herders, leading to further desertification and migration in search of greener pastures.

Earlier in the event, the Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Environment, Hon. Terseer Ugbor, expressed concern over statistics from the International Crisis Group, which revealed that between 2013 and 2022, over 1,800 deaths occurred, and 2.5 million people were displaced due to farmer-herder clashes in Nigeria.

“In response to this humanitarian crisis, we have developed an initiative focused on providing affordable green housing for displaced persons, restoring degraded farming and grazing lands, training and capacity building, resource and water management, renewable energy integration, and fostering peace through dialogue and mediation,” Ugbor stated.

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Mr Sani made this known on Monday at Government House.

The governor emphasised that good governance was crucial for effectively addressing these security issues.

He acknowledged the ongoing military actions against banditry, with the Defence headquarters supporting the establishment of two Forward Operation Bases (FOBs) in key locations.

However, Mr Sani highlighted the importance of a non-kinetic approach, emphasising the role of good governance in addressing the economic problems leading to insecurity.

The governor announced a $28 million support from Kuwait to tackle the alarming rate of out-of-school children in Kaduna.

READ ALSO: African Development Bank to Inject $540 Million into Nigeria’s Special Agro-Industrial Zones

He stressed that a holistic approach, including educational reforms, support for farmers, and increased productivity, is essential for eradicating poverty and, subsequently, insecurity in the region.

In addition to military interventions, Mr Sani revealed plans to establish a Security Trust Fund, allowing private-sector collaboration to enhance security efforts.

He underscored the need for good governance, citing the high number of out-of-school children in the state as a pressing concern that requires urgent attention.

Meanwhile, the Kaduna Elders’ Forum, led by Gen. Zamani Lekwot (rtd), and Abubakar Mustapha, congratulated the governor on his electoral victory.

They commended his focus on rural development, noting that positive outcomes have already been observed.

They said Mr Sani’s advocacy for good governance as a crucial element in the fight against insecurity reflects a comprehensive strategy that addresses both the immediate military challenges and the underlying economic factors contributing to the region’s instability.

(NAN)

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