By Adebayo Tobi
Nigeria’s housing conversation has focused heavily on one question: How many homes does the country need to build?
With the country facing a housing deficit estimated at more than 28 million units, increasing housing supply is clearly important. But there is another question that deserves just as much attention: How many Nigerians can actually afford the homes being delivered?
That question could define the next phase of Nigeria’s housing and real estate market.
Across Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Ibadan and other growing urban centres, residential development continues to expand. New estates, apartments and gated communities are appearing in areas where demand for housing remains strong.
Yet a growing number of Nigerians are finding themselves priced out of homeownership.
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The house may exist, but can people afford it?
Housing affordability is not simply about the price attached to a property.
For a prospective homeowner, affordability also depends on income, mortgage rates, deposit requirements, land costs, construction expenses, transportation, infrastructure charges and the general cost of living.
This means that a property can be technically available without being financially accessible.
A young professional may have a stable income and still struggle to raise the required deposit. A family may be able to afford monthly payments but not the initial equity contribution. Another household may find a property within its budget but reject it because its location creates unaffordable transportation costs.
These realities show why Nigeria’s housing challenge cannot be solved by construction alone.
The affordability gap is widening
The cost of delivering housing has become a major concern for developers and buyers.
Land, building materials, labour, infrastructure and financing all influence the final price of a property. When these costs rise, developers face pressure to increase selling prices or reduce the scale and specifications of projects.
Buyers, meanwhile, are dealing with household incomes that may not increase at the same pace as property prices.
This creates what can be described as an affordability gap the distance between the cost of available housing and what households can realistically pay.
Closing that gap should become a central part of Nigeria’s housing conversation.
Developers must understand the real market
The private sector has an important role to play.
Developers naturally respond to market opportunities, and there will always be demand for premium residential developments. But Nigeria also needs housing products designed around the purchasing power of the broader population.
The question should not only be, “What can we build?”
It should also be:
“Who is the intended buyer, and can that buyer realistically afford it?”
This requires developers to pay closer attention to housing design, location, construction methods, infrastructure costs and payment structures.
Smaller but well-planned homes, efficient designs and phased developments could provide alternative ways of reducing the entry cost for some buyers.
Financing remains a critical piece
Even where property prices are relatively manageable, access to long-term housing finance remains important.
For many households, homeownership cannot be achieved through savings alone. A functioning mortgage market, longer repayment periods and suitable financing products can help spread the cost of purchasing a home over a period that is more consistent with household income.
Developers and financial institutions also have room to explore innovative payment models that can make property acquisition more accessible.
The objective should be simple: make the journey to homeownership financially realistic.
Government also has a role
The affordability challenge cannot be left entirely to developers.
Government policies on land, taxation, infrastructure, planning, building regulation and housing finance can significantly influence the cost of delivering homes.
Efficient land administration can reduce delays and uncertainty. Better infrastructure planning can reduce the burden developers pass on to buyers. Clear and predictable regulations can also improve the environment for housing investment.
At the same time, housing policy must recognise that affordable housing is not simply about constructing cheaper buildings. It is about creating communities where people can live safely and sustainably without housing consuming an unreasonable share of their income.
The opportunity in Nigeria’s housing market
Nigeria’s housing challenge is enormous, but so is the opportunity.
Millions of people need decent homes, while developers, investors, financial institutions and construction professionals are searching for sustainable opportunities.
The market can bring these interests together if affordability becomes a stronger part of the development equation.
Nigeria does not only need more houses.
It needs more homes that ordinary working Nigerians can realistically aspire to own.
The future of the housing industry should therefore be measured not only by the number of units delivered, but also by whether those units create genuine pathways to homeownership.
The biggest opportunity may be found in the space between what Nigerians need, what they earn, and what the market currently offers.
Bridging that gap will require collaboration, innovation and a willingness to rethink conventional approaches to housing delivery.
