The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the Nigerian government to intensify structural reforms as it projected the country’s real GDP to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026, up from 3.9 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2024. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released in October 2025, stressed that while global growth appears to be stabilizing, emerging economies like Nigeria must adopt credible, transparent, and sustainable policies to ensure long-term economic resilience. It also called for the rebuilding of fiscal buffers, the preservation of central bank independence, and the acceleration of policy reforms.
Global economic growth is expected to decline marginally from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. Advanced economies are projected to grow at an average of 1.5 percent, while emerging and developing markets, including Nigeria, are expected to average just over 4 percent. Inflation is forecast to fall globally, but trends remain uneven, with risks tilted to the upside in countries like the United States, while other economies may see more subdued inflation rates.
During a press briefing at the IMF World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said the depreciation of the naira should not be viewed solely as a negative indicator. According to him, exchange rate movements serve as buffers against economic shocks and can support necessary adjustments in the domestic economy. He described Nigeria’s recent monetary policy improvements, enhanced revenue collection, and improved transparency in foreign exchange reserve management as positive steps. These efforts, he noted, have contributed to a decline in inflation from over 30 percent to about 23 percent and have also strengthened Nigeria’s external reserve position.
Adrian further highlighted that Nigeria’s transition toward a more flexible exchange rate regime aligns with the IMF’s broader recommendations for economic reform. The Fund considers such a move critical in helping Nigeria improve competitiveness and build economic resilience. Other IMF officials present at the briefing, including Deputy Director Athanasios Vamvakidis and Assistant Director Jason Wu, echoed similar sentiments. They underscored the role of flexible exchange rates as automatic stabilizers that can help mitigate the impact of external economic shocks.
The IMF also commended Nigeria’s recent progress in fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic governance. It noted that ongoing reforms in public finance management, along with increased clarity around FX operations, mark a notable improvement in Nigeria’s economic framework. However, the Fund maintained that the reform momentum must continue.
In conclusion, the IMF advised Nigerian authorities to remain committed to structural adjustments, institutional strengthening, and prudent monetary and fiscal strategies. These actions, it said, are essential for sustaining growth, reducing inflationary pressures, and achieving long-term macroeconomic stability.
