Petrol prices have increased across several filling stations in the Federal Capital Territory following a fresh price adjustment by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

The refinery raised its gantry price by ₦85, moving it from ₦1,265 to ₦1,350 per litre.

The increase represents a 6.7 per cent rise and pushes Dangote’s wholesale price above the current petrol landing cost of ₦1,311 per litre.

The latest adjustment comes amid a rise in global crude oil prices. Brent crude, Nigeria’s benchmark, was trading at about $108.21 per barrel, up from $107.92.

The development has intensified pressure on downstream operators, with some filling stations in Abuja already increasing their pump prices.

Abuja Filling Stations Increase Pump Prices

Checks by the News Agency of Nigeria on Sunday showed that several outlets had begun selling petrol at higher prices.

MRS retail outlets increased their pump price from ₦1,350 to ₦1,395 per litre.

NIPCO outlets also raised their price from ₦1,350 to ₦1,430 per litre, while Mobil outlets increased theirs to ₦1,400 per litre.

A petrol attendant at an MRS station said motorists could face another increase when newly purchased stock arrives.

“We are currently selling our old stock at N1,395 per litre, but from tomorrow, once the new stock arrives, the price will be higher,” she said.

Economists Warn of Higher Inflation

Economist and development expert Aliyu Ilias warned that the latest petrol price increase could worsen inflation and deepen economic hardship.

He said higher petrol prices would likely increase transportation and production costs, particularly for food and other essential commodities.

“This kind of change is not good for the economy at all, and people are going to face more hardship as a result,” Ilias said.

Expert Calls for Stronger Regulation

Former Secretary-General of the Organisation of African Trade Union Unity, Owei Lakemfa, called for stronger measures to protect consumers from global oil price fluctuations.

Lakemfa argued that Nigeria should strengthen economic planning and its regulatory framework to prevent sudden increases in domestic petrol prices.

He said Nigeria’s position as an oil-producing country should provide an advantage through domestic refining.

The former labour leader also warned about the structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, which he said contained elements of oligopoly and monopoly.

He urged regulatory agencies to prevent excessive influence over the pricing of petrol.

Marketers Explain Frequent Price Changes

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said marketers had reviewed their pump prices following repeated adjustments by Dangote Refinery.

Ukadike said the frequent price changes were creating uncertainty for marketers and consumers because replacement costs could change rapidly.

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Independent fuel marketers have threatened a nationwide strike and closure of filling stations if the Federal Government attempts to implement petrol price control in Nigeria. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) issued this warning following remarks from the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, who stated that deregulation does not allow marketers to exploit consumers through unfair pricing or excessive profiteering.

The dispute stems from public dissatisfaction over high domestic fuel costs despite a significant drop in global crude oil prices. Government regulatory bodies, including the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), expressed worries that local retail rates have failed to mirror international market declines. While the government maintains it has a legal duty under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to protect citizens from exploitation, marketers argue that enforcing any petrol price control in Nigeria contradicts the principles of a deregulated economy.

According to IPMAN, marketers are currently incurring heavy financial losses due to rapid price adjustments by local refineries and a lack of robust market competition. They noted that many businesses operate on fixed-interest bank loans, making forced price reductions unsustainable without addressing underlying supply-side challenges. Stakeholders, including the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), have urged the minister to convene an urgent meeting to resolve the pricing standoff through dialogue rather than unilateral regulatory enforcement.

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Nigerian marketers import Dangote fuel via Lome hub as regional fuel trading patterns continue to evolve across West Africa.

Industry experts revealed that a growing volume of refined petroleum products originally produced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is finding its way back into Nigeria through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub located in Lome, Togo. The development comes despite increased domestic refining capacity and rising local supply from the refinery.

Speaking during a webinar organised by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), energy market analyst Matthew Tracey-Cook explained that data from recent months showed a significant share of petroleum products imported into Nigeria originated from Dangote Refinery before being re-exported and later re-imported through international trading channels.

According to industry data presented during the session, between March and May 2026, more than 70 percent of fuel volumes imported into Nigeria were linked to products initially supplied from Dangote’s coastal operations. Similar trends were also observed in the diesel market, reflecting the refinery’s growing influence on regional fuel movements.

Market participants say the circular trading pattern may be driven by pricing differences between domestic sales and transactions conducted through international markets. Some marketers argue that purchasing products through external traders can sometimes be more competitive than sourcing directly within Nigeria.

The situation highlights the increasing integration of West African petroleum markets, with the Lome offshore hub playing a central role in the movement of refined products across the region. Analysts note that the hub has become an important trading centre connecting suppliers, traders, and buyers from multiple countries.

The trend comes amid ongoing debates over fuel import licences and market competition in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. While Dangote Refinery has maintained that local refining capacity can meet domestic demand, marketers continue to argue that import channels remain necessary for supply security and market flexibility.

Industry observers believe the development underscores the growing impact of Dangote Refinery on fuel supply chains across Africa. Since reaching full operational capacity, the refinery has expanded exports to several African countries while strengthening its role as a major supplier of refined petroleum products within the region.

As fuel trade routes continue to adjust to changing market conditions, stakeholders expect pricing dynamics, logistics costs, and regional demand patterns to remain key factors influencing the movement of petroleum products across West Africa.

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Petrol prices may soon decline to around N1,200 per litre as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot operators continue to reduce ex-depot rates following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices.

The development comes after the Dangote Refinery announced a N75 reduction in its petrol gantry price, lowering the rate from N1,250 per litre to N1,175 per litre.

According to industry data, the adjustment has prompted other depot owners to cut their prices to about N1,180 per litre, signaling a potential reduction in retail pump prices across the country.

In a circular issued to marketers, the refinery attributed the price cut to easing tensions in the Middle East, which had previously pushed energy prices higher.

“Following the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has impacted energy prices, we wish to inform you that we have reviewed our premium motor spirit gantry/coastal price,” the refinery stated.

The company also reduced its coastal price per metric tonne from N1,595,790 to N1,495,215, with the new rates taking effect from June 16, 2026.

Despite the reduction at the depot level, many filling stations are still selling petrol at around N1,280 per litre, as marketers seek to clear existing stocks purchased at higher prices.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, said consumers should expect pump prices to begin adjusting within days as new supplies enter the market.

According to him, petrol could sell for between N1,200 and N1,250 per litre in Lagos, while prices in other parts of the country may remain slightly higher due to transportation and logistics costs.

“This announcement is enabling people who have old stocks to clear out their stocks and prepare to take fresh supplies. By tomorrow and Friday, people will start adjusting to the new price,” he said.

Ukadike explained that marketers cannot immediately reduce prices without incurring losses on existing inventory purchased before the latest adjustment.

The latest reduction follows a significant decline in international crude oil prices after reports of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil benchmark Brent crude reportedly fell from about $87 per barrel to below $80 per barrel after the agreement, easing pressure on fuel markets worldwide.

During the three-month geopolitical crisis, crude prices surged above $100 per barrel and, at some points, exceeded $120 per barrel, contributing to higher fuel prices in Nigeria.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), however, raised concerns that imported petroleum products appear cheaper than some locally refined products and called for increased competition in the downstream sector.

Meanwhile, industry observers believe further reductions may occur if crude oil prices continue their downward trend.

Some analysts have projected that petrol prices could fall below N1,000 per litre in the coming weeks if the ceasefire agreement remains effective and global oil markets remain stable.

A refinery official, however, noted that further reductions may take time because refiners are still processing crude oil purchased at previously higher prices.

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Motorists in Abuja are yet to benefit from recent developments in the global oil market, as petrol prices across most filling stations in the Federal Capital Territory continue to hover around ₦1,350 per litre despite declining crude oil prices.

The situation persists even after Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced a ₦75 reduction in its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), lowering the rate from ₦1,250 per litre to ₦1,175 per litre. The adjustment took effect on June 16 and was linked to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and falling international oil prices.

A survey of filling stations in Abuja showed that many outlets maintained pump prices at approximately ₦1,350 per litre, while some locations sold the product at slightly higher rates. The unchanged retail prices have raised questions among consumers who expected a quicker response following the refinery’s latest reduction.

Industry operators explained that an immediate reduction at the retail level could result in financial losses for marketers who still hold inventory purchased at previous higher prices. According to stakeholders, many retailers are expected to exhaust existing stock before adjusting pump prices to reflect the new ex-depot rates.

The decline in global oil prices has been linked to improving prospects for increased crude supply following diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Analysts believe that easing concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies have contributed to lower crude prices and improved market sentiment.

Dangote Refinery stated that its latest price adjustment was made in response to the cooling oil market and changing global conditions. The refinery’s decision is expected to increase competition within Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector and could eventually lead to lower prices for consumers if marketers pass on the cost savings.

Despite the positive outlook, energy analysts caution that crude oil prices are only one factor influencing domestic fuel pricing. Foreign exchange costs, logistics expenses, financing obligations, and inventory replacement strategies also play significant roles in determining the final pump price paid by consumers.

For now, Abuja motorists continue to pay around ₦1,350 per litre while market participants monitor developments in the global oil market and await possible adjustments across the country’s fuel distribution network.

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The Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGAM) has projected that the retail price of cooking gas could fall to between N900 and N1,100 per kilogram by the end of 2026 if the federal government implements reforms aimed at boosting supply and reducing costs across the value chain.

President of NALPGAM, Mr. Edu Inyang, made the projection during an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Lagos, noting that although Nigeria has recorded significant growth in local Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) production, persistent supply chain challenges continue to keep prices elevated.

According to him, cooking gas, which sold for between N900 and N1,000 per kilogram in April, currently costs between N2,000 and N2,500 per kilogram in many parts of Lagos.

Inyang disclosed that Dangote Refinery and Nigeria LNG (NLNG) supplied about 87 per cent of Nigeria’s domestic LPG market in 2025. However, he explained that Dangote Refinery later clarified that much of its LPG output was earmarked for the production of higher-value products rather than the domestic cooking gas market, resulting in supply disruptions.

He noted that despite increased local production, several producers are still operating below installed capacity, leaving rising consumer demand unmet.

According to him, inadequate storage facilities, high transportation costs, foreign exchange challenges and multiple handling charges within the supply chain remain major contributors to high retail prices.

He further observed that LPG storage infrastructure is concentrated mainly in Lagos, the Edo/Delta axis and Port Harcourt, resulting in higher distribution costs, especially for northern states.

“Local production growth is encouraging, but consumers will not fully benefit unless bottlenecks in logistics, depot capacity, trucking and market access are addressed,” Inyang said.

The NALPGAM president also identified speculative trading, excessive intermediary margins and temporary product hoarding as factors contributing to periodic price distortions and artificial scarcity.

To improve affordability, he called for stronger market surveillance, greater transparency in product allocation and pricing, and stricter enforcement of fair competition across the LPG value chain.

Among the reforms proposed by the association are prioritising domestic LPG supply over exports, improving access to foreign exchange, reducing regulatory bottlenecks, expanding clean cooking support programmes, investing in storage infrastructure and introducing tax incentives for investors.

“With adequate domestic supply, improved infrastructure, exchange-rate stability and supportive government policies, the industry can achieve a more affordable and stable pricing environment,” Inyang stated.

He, however, cautioned that the projected price range should be viewed as a target rather than a guarantee, as global energy prices and exchange rate fluctuations would continue to influence the market.

Meanwhile, the federal government has assured Nigerians that LPG supply remains stable despite recent increases in cooking gas prices.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, attributed the price surge to foreign exchange volatility, rising logistics costs, infrastructure limitations and movements in international LPG prices.

He reiterated the government’s directive that all LPG produced in Nigeria should first be prioritised for domestic consumption before exports, describing the policy as critical to improving local availability and reducing import dependence.

Ekpo also directed the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to strengthen collaboration with industry stakeholders to improve supply coordination and prevent market disruptions.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the average price of refilling a 5kg cylinder rose by 13.73 per cent from N7,655.73 in March to N8,706.93 in April, while the average cost of refilling a 12.5kg cylinder increased by 13.89 per cent from N19,652.83 to N22,382.20 during the same period.

Industry stakeholders maintain that with sustained reforms, improved infrastructure and increased domestic production, Nigeria’s LPG market could witness greater stability and more affordable prices for consumers in the coming years.

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Global crude oil prices have dropped by nearly two per cent as the Iran–United States–Israel conflict enters its third month, raising renewed expectations of a possible reduction in petroleum product prices in Nigeria.

Checks on Friday showed that Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded fluctuations during trading, with prices briefly surging earlier in the week before easing later in the day.

Brent crude stood at $87.30 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $91.96 per barrel, reflecting a 1.80 per cent and 1.87 per cent movement respectively.

The decline follows a short-lived spike recorded between Wednesday and Thursday amid ongoing tensions in the Gulf region.

The development has strengthened expectations that fuel prices may ease in Nigeria, where pump prices have surged significantly in recent months due to global supply disruptions.

The crisis in the Middle East escalated after the United States imposed fresh sanctions on Iran linked to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping route.

Since February 28, 2026, the conflict has disrupted global energy markets, with ripple effects across several economies, including Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

In Nigeria, petrol prices have risen sharply to between ₦1,345 and ₦1,365 per litre, up from about ₦900 per litre earlier in the year.

However, local refining capacity, particularly from Dangote Refinery, has helped stabilize supply and support product availability across the country and parts of Africa.

Reports also indicate that Dangote Refinery recently reduced its automotive gas price to about ₦1,600 per litre from roughly ₦1,800, reflecting adjustments in response to global market movements.

Market analysts say sustained declines in crude prices could eventually ease domestic fuel pricing pressure, although exchange rate instability and logistics costs remain key determining factors.

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Fuel prices may decline in the coming days as global crude oil prices continue to fall following ongoing peace talks between the United States and Iran, raising optimism in global energy markets.

Oil prices dropped from about $111 last week to $97 per barrel on Monday morning, signalling a sharp reversal after months of volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Oil Price Decline Follows Diplomatic Progress

Brent crude had previously hovered between $103 and $105 per barrel, supported by fears surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran.

However, renewed diplomatic engagement and reports of progress in peace talks have triggered a significant market correction, with prices sliding to $97.48 per barrel.

Analysts say the decline reflects expectations that the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, may soon reopen under a potential US–Iran agreement.

Impact of Middle East Conflict on Oil Prices

Crude oil prices had surged above $100 per barrel after tensions escalated between the United States and Iran in late February.

At the peak of the crisis, prices crossed $115 per barrel, causing ripple effects across global fuel markets.

In Nigeria, petrol prices rose from around N830 per litre to about N1,300, while diesel and aviation fuel also recorded sharp increases, putting pressure on households, transport operators, and airline companies.

Nigeria Watches as Global Prices Decline

With crude prices now trending downward, market observers say there is growing speculation that fuel prices in Nigeria could ease if the decline continues.

There are also expectations that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other downstream operators may review pump prices in response to global market movements.

US–Iran Talks Show Signs of Progress

US President Donald Trump recently stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened as part of a proposed agreement involving the United States, Iran, and several Middle Eastern countries.

He said discussions with global partners were ongoing and described the talks as “orderly and constructive”.

Trump also noted that final details of the agreement were still being negotiated, but progress had been made toward a possible resolution.

Iran Confirms Negotiation Progress

Iranian authorities confirmed that discussions with the United States are advancing, although they stressed that a final agreement is not imminent.

According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baqai, both sides have reached understanding on several issues, but formal signing of an agreement remains uncertain.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of global oil supply passes, remains central to global energy stability.

Any reopening of the waterway under a peace deal is expected to ease supply concerns and further push oil prices downward.

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Nigeria’s aviation sector is facing fresh pressure as rising jet fuel costs threaten airline operations, prompting the Federal Government to introduce emergency measures to stabilise the market.

The government has directed fuel marketers to sell aviation fuel directly to airlines and provide a 30-day credit facility to ease financial strain on operators.

Stakeholders Push for Urgent Intervention

The decision followed high-level meetings coordinated by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority after earlier consultations led by the Ministry of Aviation.

Key stakeholders at the meeting included the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria, Nigerian Airspace Management Agency, Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority, airline operators, and fuel marketers.

Participants called for regulatory action to address pricing instability tied to global oil benchmarks, particularly Platts pricing components.

New Jet Fuel Price Benchmarks Introduced

Stakeholders agreed on a new indicative price range for aviation fuel based on current global market conditions:
• Lagos: ₦1,760 – ₦1,988 per litre
• Abuja: ₦1,809 – ₦2,037 per litre

However, prices may fluctuate due to volatility in global oil markets, especially amid geopolitical tensions such as the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Airlines Struggle with Rising Costs

Despite the benchmark, industry players say actual costs remain significantly higher when logistics and supply chain expenses are added.

Airlines report spending over ₦7 million to fuel a single domestic flight, with some operators paying as much as ₦7.6 million per trip.

One of Nigeria’s leading carriers, Ibom Air, disclosed that fuel costs have more than tripled in recent months, rising from about ₦2.1 million per flight earlier in the year.

The airline warned that the situation is unsustainable and may force capacity cuts or service disruptions if urgent solutions are not implemented.

Debt Crisis Deepens Sector Challenges

The aviation sector is also grappling with mounting debts, including over ₦9 billion owed by airlines to ground handling companies.

Members of the Aviation Ground Handlers Association of Nigeria have threatened to withdraw services, raising concerns over possible nationwide flight disruptions.

Dangote Refinery Profits Amid Crisis

While airlines struggle, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is reportedly benefiting from strong global demand for jet fuel, exporting large volumes to Europe at premium prices.

The refinery produces about 24 million litres of jet fuel daily, with a significant share exported, even as domestic airlines face rising costs.

Calls for Long-Term Solutions

To address the crisis, stakeholders recommended:
• Inclusion of aviation fuel in the naira-for-crude initiative
• Reduction in the number of airside fuel distributors
• Improved access to local crude for domestic refining
• Pricing reforms to reflect local economic realities

Experts warn that while Nigeria’s deregulated fuel market allows price flexibility, it also exposes the aviation sector to global shocks.

Without sustained intervention, analysts say the rising cost of jet fuel could lead to higher airfares, reduced flight frequency, and broader disruptions across Nigeria’s aviation industry.

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Nigeria exported a total of 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery grappled with a persistent shortage of domestic crude supply.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that crude exports stood at 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million barrels in February, leaving approximately 26.55 million barrels available for local refining.

Despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, Nigeria has struggled to meet the feedstock demands of its biggest refinery. The 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote facility has repeatedly raised concerns over inadequate crude allocation, forcing it to rely on imports to sustain operations.

Between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the refinery recorded a supply shortfall of about 79.53 million barrels. It received only 29.21 million barrels out of the estimated 108.74 million barrels required during the period, translating to a supply performance of just 26.9 percent.

Breakdown of deliveries shows the refinery received 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February. In March, only 3.6 million barrels were supplied within the first half of the month.

The refinery has attributed the shortfall to local oil producers’ failure to meet supply obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act, raising concerns over compliance within the upstream sector.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited confirmed it has been sourcing crude from third-party suppliers at international market prices to support refinery operations.

The supply gap has had ripple effects on fuel pricing. Petrol prices surged above ₦1,300 per litre during the recent Iran–US tensions before easing to around ₦1,250, with the refinery linking the increase to the high cost of imported crude.

Industry stakeholders, including the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, have called for improved crude supply to domestic refineries, stressing that consistent feedstock is critical for profitability, price stability, and national energy security.

The development highlights ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, where export priorities continue to compete with domestic refining needs.

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